Currently going after round 17 in most mixed leagues, Cameron Maybin is the poster child for a post-hype sleeper (see our Outfield Ranks and ADP Comparison). It feels like he’s been in the majors for years and that’s because he has-- he made his debut in 2007 at the age of 20; now six years later, he is entering the prime production period of his career. It was only in 2011 that he had 40 SB with 82 R and a .264 BA. Not exactly breakout stats, but this establishes a much higher upside than what you can expect from most players going this late in mixed league drafts. Since Maybin is going so late, he is exactly the type of player who can help you to win your leagues: a late-round lottery ticket with upside who puts up stats equivalent to a solid four or five rounds better than his draft value.
His overall batting peripherals (GB/FB ratio, line drive ratio, HR/FB) stayed virtually constant from 2011 to 2012, although his BABIP dropped by nearly 40 points, which suggests that Maybin's .243 BA from 2012 could rebound to the .260 range, with .270 upside. Again, not sensational, but certainly solid for a #5 OF with 40-SB potential. Remember, other speedsters who had comparable averages like Coco Crisp (.259) and Shane Victorino (.255) are going many rounds ahead of Maybin. Furthermore, after last year’s All-Star break, Maybin made several batting adjustments to improve his timing and saw immediate improvement with a .283 BA in the second half. Although he may never be a huge power hitter, with the Padres bringing in the walls he could conceivably manage 10 HR.
RotoBaller’s 2013 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Score: 6.0
(scores are from 1 – 10, with 10 being the biggest sleeper potential based on current ADPs)
RotoBaller’s 2013 Fantasy Baseball Projection: .260/9/50/70/30
RotoBaller’s Target Draft Rounds: Rounds 16-19
Maybin had a lot of hype going into 2012 and now he is nearly forgotten. He can be a cheap source of steals with upside in runs. Compared to guys like Shane Victorino, Ben Revere and Michael Bourn, Maybin can be had much later and for much smaller investment. Too many owners are forgetting his 2011 numbers and capabilities. For a player entering prime production years, RotoBaller recommends that you take a flier and you may win the lotto.