X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Dynasty Price Check - James Robinson

We continue with our evaluation of the dynasty league value of high-profile players in our Dynasty Price Check series. Should you trade them or trade for them? Are they being overvalued or undervalued by dynasty players?

We've already covered Ezekiel Elliott, which you can read here.

Today, we'll be looking at Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson.

Featured Promo: The FFPC Playoff Challenge #2 is back for the Divisional Round with a massive $100,000 grand prize and $260k total prize pool. Here's the deal: no salary cap, no draft, no pickups, no subs. Choose 8 players, and as NFL teams get knocked out so will your players, so choose your team wisely. The 1,500 entries will sell out quickly, and registrations will close on Saturday January 21st at 4:30 pm ET . Don't wait - get your team now and end your fantasy football season with a shot at $100,000! Sign Up Now!

 

James Robinson Background

An UDFA this past season, James Robinson entered the NFL without much hype. Even when I mentioned Robinson in my dynasty UDFA article last season, he was only there because of the lack of experience behind Leonard Fournette. I didn't expect Robinson to suddenly become what he became, which was a high-usage fantasy RB1 as a rookie.

But that's what happened. The Jaguars moved on from Fournette before the season started and Ryquell Armstead caught COVID-19. When Jacksonville didn't make a move for another back, it meant either Robinson or Devine Ozigbo was going to be the lead back. Robinson won the job out of camp and went on to rush for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. He also caught 49 passes for 344 yards and three touchdowns. He was the RB4 in 0.5-PPR leagues and the RB7 in points per game.

Among players to play in at least 12 games, Robinson led all running backs in position attempt rate:

No running back had a higher percentage of their team's overall carries or a higher percentage of their team's running back carries. Jacksonville under Doug Marrone had always been kind of a one-back team, and it seems that the reason wasn't just that they had Leonard Fournette. It was just how things went in Jacksonville.

 

Dynasty Outlook

See that sentence above about Doug Marrone? Well, he's gone. Jacksonville welcomes a first-time NFL head coach in Urban Meyer, a name that should be familiar if you've ever watched college football, as he won national titles at Florida and Ohio State.

So, how did Meyer use his running backs at Ohio State? Because that might give us a clue about how he'll use them in the NFL.

In his final year at Ohio State, J.K. Dobbins had 230 carries, with Mike Weber getting 172. The year before, Dobbins had 194 to Weber's 101.

But in 2015, when he had a workhorse back in Ezekiel Elliott, Elliott had 289 carries and the next running back in carries was Curtis Samuel at 17 of them. So, Meyer has definitely used the kind of one-back system that Marrone has, but it happened when he had an elite talent at running back.

Is Robinson that kind of talent? Or will the Jaguars bring in another running back who'll siphon off touches?

Robinson's efficiency stats suggest to me that while he's definitely talented, he might not be "can be trusted to still get 95 percent of the positional carries with a new coaching staff" level of talented. He was 32nd in true yards per carry, 18th in big runs, and 17th in yards created per touch. He also was barely used at the goal line.

I think there's a clear path for Jacksonville to give another running back touches. Maybe Urban Meyer looks for someone in the draft. Maybe he looks for a cheap option in free agency.

Or maybe Robinson winds up with the same kind of role. Maybe he is that good. Maybe he'll buck the trends of UDFA running backs:

NFL talent evaluators miss sometimes. But history suggests that they don't miss that bad on UDFA running backs. There have been some good ones like Arian Foster, but it'd be a surprise if Robinson is actually an elite talent who everyone missed on. It's more likely that he's merely a good running back who was in an elite situation. The league's full of good running backs. It's not full of elite situations, though, and if we knew Robinson's situation wasn't changing, I'd be super high on him. But the coaching change brings in too much uncertainty.

 

What's He Worth?

What to do with Robinson this offseason? Sell high!

I'm in a fantasy football Facebook group where someone posted this week that they were offered the 1.02 this year for James Robinson and they wanted to know if they should take it.

The answer for me is clear on this: YES.

As I said above, Robinson is a good running back who was in an elite situation. But if you're offered an early first for Robinson, you have a chance to get a player who is even more talented than Robinson and could potentially be in an even better position going forward.

I would treat Robinson as a low-end RB2 this offseason. If you can get a player who can produce more than that for him --  another young running back, a wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr., or a top-five tight end, I'd do it.

I might have more hesitance if I was offered a low first. If my choice was between Robinson and the 1.09, for instance, I'd probably go with the high floor that Robinson brings over the mystery that the pick would provide.

Don't just try to get rid of Robinson to get rid of him. But also, don't hold him with the hopes that he'll become an elite RB1. Find a balance in the middle, and then make your Robinson plans accordingly.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Jake Oettinger22 mins ago

Starting Wednesday Against Minnesota
Filip Gustavsson34 mins ago

Named The Starter Versus Dallas
Robert Williams36 mins ago

III Downgraded To Questionable
Spencer Martin37 mins ago

Minds The Crease Wednesday
Al Horford42 mins ago

Questionable On Wednesday
Jaylen Brown50 mins ago

Good To Go Wednesday
Jeremy Sochan59 mins ago

Misses Another Game Wednesday
Tre Jones1 hour ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Donovan Mitchell1 hour ago

Questionable Wednesday
Darius Garland1 hour ago

Questionable For Wednesday
James Naile2 hours ago

Cardinals Designate James Naile For Assignment
Anthony Misiewicz2 hours ago

Cardinals Acquire Anthony Misiewicz
Kyrie Irving3 hours ago

To Debut For Mavericks On Wednesday
Los Angles Rams4 hours ago

Aaron Donald Coming Back For Another Season
Josh Jacobs4 hours ago

Raiders Expected To Use Franchise Tag On Josh Jacobs
Shane Lowry4 hours ago

Set To Make First U.S. Start Of 2023 This Week
Tony Pollard4 hours ago

Expected To Receive Franchise Tag
PGA4 hours ago

Alex Noren A Dark-Horse Contender This Week
PGA4 hours ago

J.T. Poston Heads To Phoenix In Hot Form
Cameron Young4 hours ago

Continues To Impress
Patrick Cantlay4 hours ago

An Elite Fantasy Option At WM Phoenix Open
Corey Conners5 hours ago

Remains A Ball-Striking Machine
PGA5 hours ago

Matt Fitzpatrick Hopes To Rebound In Phoenix
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Posts Fourth Straight Triple-Double
Rory McIlroy5 hours ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Phoenix
Trae Young5 hours ago

Collects Another 16-Assist Game In Loss
Brandon Ingram5 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 30 Points
Justin Thomas5 hours ago

Has Thrived At WM Phoenix Open
Deandre Ayton5 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Win Over Brooklyn
Cam Thomas6 hours ago

Collects Third 40-Point Game In A Row
Jalen Williams6 hours ago

Thunder Play Spoiler On LeBron's Big Night
LeBron James6 hours ago

Becomes The NBA's All-Time Leading Scorer
Evgeni Malkin8 hours ago

Bags Two Assists
John Klingberg8 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists Tuesday
Nikita Kucherov8 hours ago

Extends Home Point Streak
Andre Burakovsky8 hours ago

Goes Down On First Shift
Nick Paul8 hours ago

Hurt In Tuesday's Game
Troy Terry8 hours ago

Out Day-To-Day
Brayden Point14 hours ago

Scores Twice Against Sharks
Erik Karlsson14 hours ago

Records Three Points In Overtime Victory
Jack Campbell14 hours ago

Collects Victory Against Red Wings
Connor McDavid14 hours ago

Picks Up Assist In Victory
Bo Horvat14 hours ago

Scores First Goal In Islanders Jersey
Adin Hill14 hours ago

Earns Win Against Predators
Casey DeSmith15 hours ago

Picks Up Overtime Victory Against Avalanche
Kris Letang15 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal Against Avalanche
Tejay Antone16 hours ago

Dealing With Flexor Strain
Bo Bichette16 hours ago

Blue Jays, Bo Bichette Avoid Arbitration
Frank Vatrano16 hours ago

Snipes In Overtime Tuesday
Phil Kessel16 hours ago

Contributes Two Points In Vegas Victory
Ilya Sorokin16 hours ago

Shuts Out Seattle Tuesday
Timo Meier17 hours ago

Carries Sharks To Overtime Win
Joel Embiid18 hours ago

On Injury Report Again
Rickie Fowler18 hours ago

Has Good History At WM Phoenix Open
Jaylen Brown18 hours ago

Likely To Play Wednesday
Sam Burns18 hours ago

Looks To Keep Improving At Phoenix
Daniel Gafford18 hours ago

Not Listed On Wednesday's Injury Report
Austin Reaves18 hours ago

Playing Against Thunder
Scottie Scheffler18 hours ago

Could Stay Near The Top At Phoenix
Hayden Buckley18 hours ago

Poised For Rebound At WM Phoenix Open
Matthew NeSmith19 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Fall Form
PGA19 hours ago

Sungjae Im Poised To Keep Rolling In Phoenix
19 hours ago

Tom Kim Expects To Contend At Phoenix This Week
Derek Carr20 hours ago

Saints Granted Permission To Visit With Derek Carr
Jonas Valanciunas21 hours ago

Starting Against Hawks
Brandon Ingram21 hours ago

Playing As Expected Tuesday
Kyle Tucker22 hours ago

Astros, Kyle Tucker Have Discussed Extension
Jon Berti22 hours ago

Marlins, Jon Berti Avoid Arbitration
DJ LeMahieu22 hours ago

Looks Back To Old Self
Josh Donaldson22 hours ago

Projected To Start At 3B For Yankees
Oswald Peraza1 day ago

Yankees Impressed With Oswald Peraza
Anthony Volpe1 day ago

On A Mission
Matt Gage1 day ago

Blue Jays Place Matt Gage On Unconditional Release Waivers
Phillip Diehl1 day ago

Guardians Agree To Minor-League Deal With Phillip Diehl
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Rough Times Continue For Derrick Lewis
Serghei Spivac1 day ago

Sergey Spivak Earns Huge Victory On Saturday
MMA1 day ago

Jung Da Un Unable To Do Enough To Earn Decision
Devin Clark1 day ago

Eeks Out Close Decision Win
Blagoy Ivanov1 day ago

Unable To Stop Recent Slide
Marcin Tybura1 day ago

Continues To Shine With Latest Victory
Kyle Nelson1 day ago

Saved From Defeat With Late Point Deduction
MMA1 day ago

Choi Doo-ho's Point Deduction Takes Away A Victory
Yusaku Kinoshita1 day ago

Unable To Score A Victory In Debut
Adam Fugitt1 day ago

Dominates With First-Round Finish
Ian Kinsler2 days ago

To Rejoin Rangers As Special Assistant To GM
Pete Crow-Armstrong2 days ago

Gets Non-Roster Spring Training Invite
Ronald Guzmán2 days ago

Giants List Ronald Guzman As Two-Way Player
Victor Robles2 days ago

Nationals, Victor Robles Avoid Arbitration
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Withdraws From World Baseball Classic
A.J. Green2 days ago

Announces His Retirement
Brock Purdy2 days ago

Leaning Toward Surgery?
Mecole Hardman2 days ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Clyde Edwards-Helaire2 days ago

Chiefs Activate Clyde Edwards-Helaire From IR
Stephen Piscotty2 days ago

Giants Agree To Minor-League Deal With Stephen Piscotty
Milwaukee Brewers3 days ago

Sal Frelick Expected To Play For Italy In WBC
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Have No Plans To Trade Zach Wilson
New York Mets3 days ago

Mets Top Prospect Matthew Allan To Miss 2023 Season
Cleveland Browns3 days ago

Myles Garrett Dislocates Toe At Pro Bowl Games
Rowdy Tellez3 days ago

Playing For Mexico In WBC
Joey Logano3 days ago

Facing Different Reality At Los Angeles
Ross Chastain3 days ago

And The Clash On Sunday
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Has To Race Into Coliseum Main Event
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Bit Of A Wildcard At Los Angeles
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Qualified Ninth At Los Angeles
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Has Exciting Saturday At Coliseum
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Starts Second In Heat Three At Coliseum
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Continues Chevy Theme In Los Angeles
Aric Almirola3 days ago

Rises To Fifth In Qualifying Saturday
William Byron3 days ago

Qualifies Fourth For Sunday At Los Angeles
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Surprises Some At Coliseum Saturday
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Loves Los Angeles Again On Saturday
Justin Haley3 days ago

Heats Up Coliseum Track Saturday
Josh Jacobs4 days ago

Won't Settle In Extension Talks
Mecole Hardman5 days ago

Doubtful For Super Bowl
JuJu Smith-Schuster5 days ago

Kadarius Toney Questionable
Derek Carr5 days ago

Won't Extend Contract Trigger Date
Derek Carr6 days ago

Expected To Draw Plenty Of Interest
Aaron Rodgers6 days ago

: "I'm Not Going To San Fran"
Joe Mixon6 days ago

Charges Against Joe Mixon Will Be Dropped
Joe Mixon6 days ago

Has Warrant For Arrest
Mecole Hardman6 days ago

Unlikely To Play In Super Bowl

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP