RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic on 11/16/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The wait is almost over, folks! This Saturday's event is poised to be one of the most thrilling UFC events of the year. UFC 309, scheduled for November 16, 2024, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, features a highly anticipated heavyweight showdown between the heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. The event will mark the promotion's 11th visit to New York City and first since UFC 295 in November 2023.
The co-main event is a highly anticipated lightweight rematch between former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. The card also includes a middleweight bout featuring up-and-coming star Bo Nickal against Scotland's Paul Craig, while the prelims feature former middleweight champion Chris Weidman facing off against Eryk Anders.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic on 11/16/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jon Jones, $9,500 - vs. Stipe Miocic
In the main event of UFC 309, Jon Jones, the man who most consider the greatest mixed martial arts fighter of all time, returns for his first heavyweight title defense against the greatest heavyweight in UFC history, Stipe Miocic.
Both Jones and Miocic are coming back after long hiatuses, with Jones being out for 20 months and Miocic being out for three-and-a-half years. Jones was last seen in action back in 2023 at UFC 285, where he quickly submitted Ciryl Gane to become the new heavyweight champion. In contrast, Miocic last fought back in 2021 at UFC 260, suffered a knockout loss, and lost the heavyweight title to Francis Ngannou.
TWO. MORE. SLEEPS. @JonnyBones vs @StipeMiocic
[ #UFC309 LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/oY1gysiXWD
— UFC (@ufc) November 14, 2024
Jones became the youngest champion in UFC history when he TKO'd the legendary Mauricio Rua in 2011 and defended the light heavyweight title for almost nine years before vacating the belt and announcing his move to heavyweight.
Throughout his title reign, he defeated legendary fighters and former champions like Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Glover Teixeira, and Daniel Cormier (twice). His record is 27-1 and one NC, with the only loss being a controversial disqualification against Matt Hamill for a 12-to-six elbow.
Former two-time heavyweight champion Miocic comes into this fight with a record of 20-4 with 14 knockout wins, one submission win, and five decision wins. Miocic is the first man in UFC history to defend the heavyweight title three times, scoring back-to-back knockout wins over Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos before dominating Francis Ngannou. His last win came in August 2020, when he faced off against former light heavyweight and former heavyweight champion Cormier in a trilogy bout, which marked Miocic's second win over Cormier.
Jones enters this fight with a UFC record of 21-1 and one NC. He averages 4.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Jones absorbs 2.22 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 64%. Regarding his grappling, Jones averages 1.93 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 95% and his takedown accuracy is 45%.
His opponent, Miocic, has a striking accuracy of 53% and he averages 4.82 significant strikes per minute. He is absorbing 3.82 strikes per minute and his striking defense is 54%. When it comes to his grappling, Miocic is averaging 1.86 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Miocic would have been a dangerous fight for Jones if he was in his prime, but now, it's just hard to imagine Miocic being the same fighter he once was. He's 42 years old and he hasn't fought since 2021. I give Miocic an advantage in boxing, but other than that, Jones is better in basically every facet of the game.
I see Jones unleashing knees and elbows in the clinch. I see the favorite Jones taking Miocic down and finishing him in three rounds via TKO.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bo Nickal, $9,800 - vs. Paul Craig
On Saturday, a three-time Division I national champion and four-time All-American in Bo Nickal is set to take on Paul Craig on the main card of UFC 309. Nickal will look to remain undefeated and extend his win streak to seven, while Craig will look to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back fights.
The 28-year-old Nickal is 6-0 with two knockouts and four submissions. Nickal burst onto the scene after winning the "Dana White’s Contender Series" with two submission victories. After that, he signed with the UFC and went 3-0 in his next three fights. He was last seen in action at UFC 300, where he submitted Cody Brundage by a second-round rear-naked choke.
Since dropping down to middleweight last year, Craig has gone 1-2 in his previous three fights. In his middleweight debut, Craig defeated Andre Muniz via second-round ground and pound but got submitted in his next fight by Brendan Allen. Craig was last seen in action at UFC 301, where he got knocked out by Caio Borralho.
Nickal averages 1.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 0.50 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 70%. Nickal is an elite grappler, averaging 7.46 takedowns every 15 minutes and 7.5 submission attempts every 15 minutes, with his takedown accuracy being 50%.
Craig enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-8-1 and he is 9-8-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.45 significant strikes per minute and his striking accuracy is 46%. His striking defense is 44% and he is absorbing 2.97 strikes per minute. In terms of his grappling ability, Craig is averaging 1.68 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 20% and he has a takedown defense of 37%.
Even though Nickal is not a great striker, he is a better striker than Craig. Nickal has run through every single person UFC has put in front of him, but Craig is a step up in competition. Craig might catch Nickal in a submission just like he did with Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, but I don't see it happening.
If Nickal doesn't knock Craig out standing up, he will be on the ground. My prediction is that Nickal gets this done via first-round TKO.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Weidman, $7,700 - vs. Eryk Anders
On the prelims, former middleweight champion Chris Weidman will take on Eryk Anders in an exciting middleweight matchup. Both fighters got back in the win column in their last fight, with Anders defeating Jamie Pickett via unanimous decision, and Weidman defeating Bruno Silva via a technical decision.
After missing more than two years following a brutal leg injury in his UFC 261 fight with Uriah Hall in April 2021, Weidman has gone 1-1, losing to Brad Tavares and then getting back in the win column by defeating Silva. It was his first victory since August 2020.
While there was some controversy over Weidman poking Silva in the eye four times, he was in control of that fight and was on his way to a decision win. The fight against Anders will be Weidman's first time competing in New York since his knockout loss to Ronaldo Souza at UFC 230 in 2018.
His opponent, Anders, got back in the win column last time around when he faced off against Pickett. Anders has flip-flopped wins and losses over his past six bouts, which include a stoppage victory over Kyle Daukaus in December 2022 and a submission loss to Andre Muniz. Since signing with the UFC, Anders has gone 8-8 with one NC.
Weidman enters this fight as an underdog with a UFC record of 21-1 and one NC. He averages 3.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Weidman absorbs 3.22 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. Known as a wrestler, Weidman averages 3.44 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 42% and his takedown accuracy is 65%.
Anders enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-7. His striking accuracy is 47% and he averages 3.41 significant strikes per minute. Anders is absorbing 4.17 strikes per minute and his striking defense is 50%. When it comes to his grappling, Anders is averaging 1.79 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26% and a takedown defense of 79%.
Weidman seems like a man on a mission. He looked good in his last fight against Silva. He outpaced Silva 88 strikes to 30 and landed on 68% of his attempts. Not to mention that Weidman's strongest weapon is his wrestling, and I expect him to mix it up against Anders.
I don't see Anders knocking out Weidman or taking him down, and I expect another solid performance and earning the win. My prediction is that Weidman gets this done via third-round submission or a third-round TKO.
