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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for John Deere Classic. His under-owned PGA DFS value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Hello all, I hope you are doing well! Spencer Aguiar is away this week, so I will be filling in for him with some John Deere Classic DraftKings info for you guys. Unfortunately, I'm not able to replicate Spencer's amazing model, the PGA DFS Rankings Wizard, so I do apologize for that. I know you guys love Spencer's work and I promise that he will be back ASAP!
After a stretch of very good events, we get a somewhat watered-down John Deere Classic field this week. Due to the co-sanctioning of the Scottish Open by the PGA Tour, many top pros have elected to cross the pond early in an effort to prep for the upcoming Open Championship. As a result, we are left with a challenging salary scale on this DK slate.
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TPC Deere Run
7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bent
This D.A. Weibring design ain't exactly Bethpage Black. The extra-wide fairways are super easy to hit. The greens are super easy to hit. Paul Goydos shot a 59 here in 2010. You get the idea...there will be birdies.
TPC Deere Run features some dramatic elevation changes throughout the layout with the course being designed to present players with risk/reward options that, more often than not, result in more reward than risk. Though birdies are plentiful, the bombers don't necessarily have a distinct advantage in this tournament, as guys like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker are some of the biggest all-time money earners at the John Deere Classic.
As we're forced to do in these types of tournaments, I'll once again be looking for players that can go low by focusing on Birdie or Better Percentage and DK Points Scored. I'll also give weight to Strokes Gained: Approach & Tee to Green while giving a small bump to guys that have success putting on Bentgrass, as these types of events usually devolve into "putting contests".
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Deere Run | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 284 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 71% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 71% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.48 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Proximity (100-125 Yards & 125-150 Yards)
- Strokes Gained: Easy Courses
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
This week provides us with an interesting challenge, as the John Deere field is chock-full of volatility due to the overall quality of entrants. I will be relentlessly targeting those that are able to rack up birdies in bunches while being willing to swallow any inconsistent tendencies that those players may possess.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
With Daniel Berger's Monday WD, there are four players priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Webb Simpson ($10,600) - Safe is certainly a relative term on this slate, as the weakness of this overall field translates to volatility throughout the salary scale. To put things in simple terms, DraftKings still has to price these guys, quality of the field be damned, meaning somebody has to be at the top of the board this week. While this isn't the Webb Simpson of two years ago, the Wake Forest alum still sticks out as the most dependable option above $10k due to his pedigree and flashes of recent form. Simpson has battled back from a neck injury to post top-30 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a T13 in last week's Travelers Championship. His lack of length won't be an issue this week and despite being in "rebuild mode" he is still the class of this Deere field.
- Most Upside: Adam Hadwin ($10,400) - Hadwin's game isn't flashy but it has always had an underrated explosive quality, and he currently ranks sixth in Birdies or Better Gained among JDC entrants. He's put together a sneaky-good year to this point, posting four top-10 results, highlighted by a T7 two weeks ago at the U.S. Open. The Canadian has now made the cut in eight of his last 10 starts and grades out second in this Deere field in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds.
- Favorite GPP Play: Sahith Theegala ($10,100) - How can you be a golf fan and not love this kid? Theegala added some spice to the proceedings last week at TPC River Highlands with a Sunday charge that electrified the Travelers. Still just 24 years old, the Pepperdine product has displayed some understandable inconsistency this year given his inexperience and his last three starts illustrate his volatility, as he's gone T2-T53-T5 during the month of June.
- Fade: Spencer is one of my best friends, so I will not say Jason Day here.
- Most Likely Winner: Hadwin ($10,400) - He's been trending throughout the year and possesses all the tools needed to win on this layout, as he owns a 67.75 scoring average across two career John Deere starts.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Charles Howell III ($9,300) - CH3 has just over $41 million (!) in career PGA Tour earnings and he's amassed that fortune by sticking to the same playbook...show up, play smart golf, make the cut, cash a top-25 check. Rinse and repeat. The plan has worked perfectly for him at the Deere over the years, as he's made the cut in 10 of 11 career JDC appearances with seven top-25 finishes.
- Most Upside: Denny McCarthy ($9,900) - Consistently one of the best putters on the PGA Tour for years (maybe the best), McCarthy has the unique ability to have a mediocre ball-striking week and still ride his putter to victory on this TPC Deere Run layout a la Zach Johnson or Steve Stricker. Had impressively scored top-seven finishes in the Memorial and U.S. Open prior to missing the cut last week in Connecticut.
- Favorite GPP Play: Maverick McNealy ($9,500) - This could shape up to be a nice "buy low" spot on Mav, as the public's opinion of him is likely down after missed cuts in his last two starts. However, McNealy did post a T18 in last year's John Deere and if we're willing to zoom out a bit and resist recency bias, he grades out second in this field in both DK Points Scored and Birdies or Better Gained over the last 50 rounds.
- Fade: I wouldn't argue against fading this range entirely.
- Most Likely Winner: McCarthy ($9,900) - My answer was almost "none", as the entire $9k range has combined for just three career victories on the PGA Tour (all of them belong to CH3). However, I could see the recently-hot McCarthy going into #GawdMode with the putter and getting the first win of his career.
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Cameron Davis ($8,400) - From a pure talent perspective, the Aussie is the standout for me in the $8k range. Many were hopeful that a victory last year in Detroit would be a springboard to bigger things for the 27-year-old that's loaded with star potential, but Davis started 2022 in rather sluggish form. Things have been pointing in the right direction lately though, as he scored a T7 last month at Colonial and has now made the cut in six of his last seven starts, while grading out third in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 12 rounds.
- Most Upside: Nick Hardy ($8,700) - We're likely just beginning to scratch the surface of what Nick Hardy can do on the PGA Tour. Hardy has impressed in recent weeks, posting a T14 at Brookline and following up with a T8 last week at the Travelers. He ranks first in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 12 rounds. In addition to the recent form, the Illinois native and former Big 10 Player of the Year has ties to the John Deere Classic, an event in which he made the cut as an amateur in 2017 and just after turning pro in 2018.
- Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Rodgers ($8,800) - I never want to have all my hopes and dreams pinned on Patrick Rodgers, but I can get behind taking a stab with him in GPP formats. He has made the cut in five of his last six starts, including a top-10 in Mexico and an impressive T31 in the U.S. Open at Brookline. He brings that form to a TPC Deere Run layout on which he's made the cut in four consecutive appearances and recorded a runner-up finish in 2017. I'm giving a bump to putting this week and Rodgers grades our first in the field in SG: Putting on Bent over his last 24 measured rounds on the surface.
- Fade: Lucas Glover ($8,300) - Yes, Glover won this event last year. Yes, he often has great ball-striking weeks. However, he gained three strokes putting in last year's John Deere Classic, a feat which he hasn't equaled once in his 25 starts since last year's Deere. If Glover beats me with a hot putting week, so be it, but I'm willing to play the odds here.
- Most Likely Winner: Hardy ($8,700) - It's easy to fall in love with shiny new toys, but Hardy feels like more than a flavor of the week. I like his ability to make birdies, his growing confidence, and his familiarity with this golf course.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Chez Reavie ($7,900) - Just to reiterate, safe is a relative word on this slate. Reavie has been playing his best golf of the year as of late and comes in on the heels of a T8 in last week's Travelers. That result marked his third top-15 finish in his last five starts. Deadly accurate off the tee, Reavie grades out first in this field in both Fairways Gained and Good Drives Gained over the last 12 rounds, so we can be confident that he'll put himself into position to score on this gettable track where he posted a T18 in last year's edition.
- Most Upside: Adam Schenk ($7,700) - Schenk has flexed his upside muscles in this event in each of his last two John Deere appearances, scoring a T4 in last year's edition and a T6 in 2019. Just this month, the Indiana native has put forth impressive performances in both the U.S. Open (T24) and the Memorial (T26). Bentgrass greens like he'll see this week have historically been his best putting surface and he ranks 11th in the field in SG: Putting on Bent over his last 50 measured rounds.
- Favorite GPP Play: Chris Gotterup ($7,300) - The reigning Haskins and Nicklaus awards winner, Gotterup is playing on a coveted sponsor's exemption this week. The heavily touted collegiate star missed the cut as the chalk DFS option a few weeks ago in Canada, but battled back to make the cut in both the U.S. Open (T43) and last week's Travelers (T35), where he gained four strokes on the field in total Ball Striking.
- Fade: Patton Kizzire ($7,400) - Kizzire's history in the Deere is solid enough, but he's been a total disaster from T2G over the last six weeks or so. He's now lost strokes T2G in six consecutive starts and ranks just 133rd in this week's field in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds.
- Most Likely Winner: Reavie ($7,900)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Say want you want about the new LIV Golf league, but this week's $6k range is Plaintiff's Exhibit A of what's wrong with the PGA Tour. The fact that Ricky Barnes, Parker McLachlin, and Omar Uresti are teeing it up in an honest-to-goodness PGA Tour event in the year of our Lord 2022 is simply outrageous when considering the quality of players that are grinding away on the Korn Ferry Tour, or even the PGA Tour's Canada and Latinoamerica circuits. If anything good comes of golf's new professional rivalry (I don't know that it will), let's hope it's that the boys down in Ponte Vedra finally put these guys out to pasture and fast-track some of golf's young talent to more starts on the PGA Tour. Why is Pierceson Coody not in this field for crying out loud? We should be trying to find the next Will Zalatoris, not trying to give Kevin Stadler an opportunity to make his second cut in the past year.
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