X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Tape Tells All - Derrius Guice Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film.

This week, I'm looking at Washington running back Derrius Guice, who's finally healthy and finally getting a chance to show why people were so high on him last season.

On Sunday, Guice had 10 carries for 129 yards and two touchdowns while also catching a pair of short passes. Let's look at some data and video of Guice and decide if you can trust him in your fantasy lineups over the rest of the NFL season.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Background Information

In the 2018 NFL Draft, Washington took Guice with the 59th overall pick. After the Giants took Saquon Barkley with the second overall pick, we had a lull at running back until the end of the first round, and then between Rashaad Penny at 27 and the end of Round 2, we saw Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, and Kerryon Johnson picked, followed by Guice.

(That's such a strong and interesting running back class, by the way. Jones is the only real "ugh, why" name in that batch, and he's still had some impressive moments this season. Royce Freeman, Nyheim Hines, Chase Edmonds, and Bo Scarbrough also got drafted later on in that draft.)

Despite being picked after a lot of those other backs, Guice pretty quickly gained steam as a top dynasty rookie pick, and I ended up rostering him in a good number of leagues because it seemed like Washington was the perfect landing spot for him to be a workhorse back.

And then, he tore the ACL and missed all of his rookie year.

And then then, another knee injury in Week 1 of this season cost Guice most of this season, with him finally returning in Week 11. He had eight touches in that one, including a 45 yard touchdown catch, but a lackluster Week 12 outing against the Lions had us back to wondering what kind of fantasy option Guice might be this year.

And then, well...Sunday happened, and we're sitting here today having the opposite conversation. Is this finally the Guice we thought we'd see back in 2018?

It's hard to really know how much of Guice's pre-draft workout metrics are still relevant after the knee issues, but let's go ahead and mention them anyways. 80th percentile 40-yard dash. 91st percentile speed score. He should be an explosive runner, and I think we've definitely seen some signs of that explosiveness this season.

 

The Game Tape

Let's take a look at some Derrius Guice tape!

First, let's look at his touchdowns.

Here's the first one:

And here's the second one:

Lot in common on these plays! Washington runs the same goal line formation out there for both plays, Guice goes slightly right when he gets the ball, then a defender comes around the edge, hits him, and Guice bounces his way into the end zone. He had to dive a little higher on one of the plays? Other than that, these are basically the same video. It's the same defensive look both times, with the same linebacker position getting to the edge.

It's good to see Guice running hard near the goal line, and to see Washington comfortable using him there rather than just subbing Adrian Peterson in. Goal line carries = chances to score touchdowns = higher fantasy ceiling.

Guice also broke off some big ones.

Here's a 60 yarder where he shows off that burst. Some good footwork at the line of scrimmage plus a great little evasive move to avoid a tackle right at the start of the second level plus a teammate running the length of the field to help block all helps spring this big play.

Another fun, long one where Guice looks quick and also displays some good strength. Watch him just push the Panthers defender away! See him take on another defender down the field and almost get into the end zone anyway. This is such a entertaining run to watch, and it shows Guice with a mixture of speed and just brute force.

Not every Guice run was like this, as he did have some short ones where he couldn't find space. But overall, the line did a good job creating room for him. It might be a little surprising to know that Washington is 14th in the NFL in adjusted line yards, ahead of teams like Seattle, Carolina, and New England. For an offense that's struggled, having a line that's mid-pack in create rushing space is surprising, and it bodes well for Guice's chance of finding success moving forward.

 

Fantasy Impact

So, should you trust Guice in your fantasy lineups? I mean...it is playoff time, so you can't really afford to make mistakes if he's not actually emerging as the version of himself we've been waiting for.

This is where I'm so conflicted, Sunday showed us that the talent is definitely still there. Those knee injuries didn't turn Guice into some hobbled version of himself.

But with those injuries lingering in the coaching staff's mind, you'd have to think Guice doesn't get some enormous workload over the remainder of a lost season for Washington. (Yes, there's a way they can still win the NFC East, but also hahahahaha no, they aren't winning the NFC East.)

Guice still played just 30 percent of snaps and Adrian Peterson wasn't some slouch, carrying 13 times for 99 yards and a score. Chris Thompson is finally back to take some passing down work. Snap counts for those three players broke down nearly evenly: 23 for Thompson, 23 for Peterson, and 19 for Guice.

And really, why would that change? If Guice is your running back of the future, you want to use the rest of this season seeing what he can do, but not putting unnecessary stress on his body from giving him 25-30 touches. That would be coaching malpractice.

So, in redraft leagues, I'm still not putting my fantasy championship in the hands of Derrius Guice outside of a 14-team league, but what I am doing is pumping my fists and yelling "I HAVE HIM IN DYNASTY STILL" as loud as I can. (And, of course, closing my eyes and humming and pretending that I didn't already trade him away in our staff dynasty league, even if the return I got was fine.)

Anyway, Guice: Good player. Not really worth the risk in shallower leagues unless the Washington backfield deals with more injuries.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford9 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White9 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl11 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon11 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter11 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic11 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio11 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday11 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton11 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James12 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez12 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama12 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell12 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith12 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks13 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green13 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson13 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson13 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman13 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray13 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar13 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams13 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres14 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard14 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson14 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer15 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia15 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen15 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers15 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers15 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers16 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar16 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark17 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB17 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels17 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB17 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby17 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith17 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds18 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti19 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga19 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain19 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim19 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA19 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry19 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox19 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak19 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan21 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg21 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn21 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin21 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord22 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala22 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark22 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler23 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser23 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder23 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen23 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama23 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin23 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Top-200 Fantasy Football Rankings - Post Free Agency Edition

Fantasy football drafts are still five months away, but rankings and how fantasy managers value all of the players are constantly changing. With the better part of free agency in the rearview mirror and the best players on their new teams, we can re-evaluate our rankings to see which players have moved up and down.... Read More