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Boom or bust? Andrew Ball analyzes three wide receivers who could explode or disappoint for your fantasy football roster in 2024. Which is worth adding to your squad?
We've seen them boom, and we've seen them bust.
A trio of explosive receivers disappointed to various degrees in 2023. Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith all have top-10 fantasy football finishes in their career. That wasn't the case last season.
Will Waddle, Metcalf, and Smith bust again in 2024 or will we witness a return to form for the talented wideouts?
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Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Already without Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle is down for the Dolphins. pic.twitter.com/O3fYCe5Ecs
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 17, 2023
That was a familiar scene for Waddle fans last season. Injuries sidelined the former first-round pick for three games. He was forced to leave other games early and missed snaps here and there due to various ailments. In the game above when he took a hit to the chest, he tallied 142 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions, but only on 67% of the snaps. Waddle played 75% or more of Miami’s snaps in five of his 14 starts. Can’t score fantasy points if you’re off the field.
There are concerns about Miami's defense in the new year. Its best player, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, took the money from Las Vegas and ran out of town. Both starting edge-rushers, Bradley Chubb (knee) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), are on the PUP list. It would be a surprise if either were ready to begin the season.
Whenever Miami was behind in games, head coach Mike McDaniel dialed up a pass play on 67% of snaps. That wasn’t the case when it held a lead. Considering it was an 11-win team and won seven games by 14 or more points, the fact that Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards is a minor miracle. He could easily repeat with a healthier Waddle and closer contests due to a potentially struggling defense.
Final Verdict: BOOM
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Unoriginal offenses hamper talent.
For the second time in the last three seasons, the Seattle Seahawks ranked dead last in the number of offensive snaps. They were the only NFL team not to reach 1,000 plays. Their defense played a role in those woes. Former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is now the head man in Seattle. His schemes will help mask issues with the defensive roster.
But the offense was also one of the worst teams converting third downs, quickly taking Geno Smith and Co. off the field. Macdonald handpicked University of Washington’s Ryan Grubb to run the offense. On paper, his scheme meshes perfectly with DK Metcalf’s skill set. Grubb regularly attacks defenders downfield.
brb watching washington's use of motion and route concepts in the deep passing game last season
geno smith should be happy pic.twitter.com/YSBFlUk9Yx
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) July 30, 2024
Metcalf averaged 16.9 yards per reception (sixth in the league) and racked up 1,521 air yards (12th). Unfortunately, 774 unrealized air yards (12th) are in his profile from a year ago. Macdonald has stated that the goal of their offense is to get the ball into Metcalf’s hands often.
And for the first time in his career, he’s the undisputed top receiver on his team. Tyler Lockett was repeatedly cast aside in fantasy drafts, only to turn around and match or exceed Metcalf’s production. 2023 was the first season with a notable gap between Metcalf and Lockett. In 2020 and 2021, the total fantasy points margin between the two was under six points. 23 points separated the duo in 2023, as Locket’s productivity and efficiency slipped with age. Soon to be 32 years old, Lockett is finally passing the torch to Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Metcalf has just one top-12 finish in his five-year career. That was in 2020 when 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns propelled him to a WR7 finish. It’s fair to be concerned about whether Smith can be consistent enough at his age and lack of repeated success can support Metcalf. I’m buying the chance of scenery unlocking the physical specimen.
Final Verdict: BOOM
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Speaking of unoriginal offenses, it may not have seemed like it because of their 354 yards per game, but the Eagles offense was stale. According to ESPN Stats and Info, Philadelphia finished last in the NFL in motion rate at just 10.9%. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore won't play those games. As the Chargers play-caller, Moore ran motion 59% of the time last season, good for sixth in the league.
Smith may also be playing a new role in 2024. He lined up in the slot for under a quarter of his offensive snaps last season. That falls in line with 2022 numbers. He was out wide even more in 2021. The initial expectation was that Smith would continue to primarily play outside this season, especially after the signing of slot receiver Parris Campbell. 6-foot-6 sixth-round pick Johnny Wilson has been getting more and more first-team reps. That's pushing Smith inside in three receiver sets.
That's the CeeDee Lamb role from Moore's days in Dallas. Lamb was the X in two-receiver sets and moved inside when another receiver trotted onto the field. Lamb was the WR5 in 2022. Keenan Allen played the Z with Moore in Los Angeles and lined up in the slot for the majority of three-receiver play calls. He was the WR3 in points per game. Smith obviously has more target competition with A.J. Brown on the field. Lamb and Allen competed with Dalton Schultz and Joshua Palmer, respectively. Still, that's a money position for a Kellen Moore offense.
DeVonta Smith's career target per route run rate splits:
(Data per @TruMediaSports)27% - in the slot
18% - out wide26% - as pre-snap motion man
20% - not in motion33% - in the slot as pre-snap motion man
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 2, 2024
Here's the bonus point you've been waiting for: Smith is being drafted at his floor! It's a course correction for his disappointing third season. A lower target rate led to fewer receptions, but he was still the WR21 (14.2 PPG) with over 1,000 yards and seven scores. He was a late-second or early third-round pick one offseason ago. He's squarely in the fourth round today.
Final Verdict: BOOM
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