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Starting pitcher Blake Snell was traded to the San Diego Padres from the Tampa Bay Rays just as 2021 arrives. Jon Anderson analyzes the fantasy baseball impact of this deal to see where his draft ADP should lie.
It would be a massive understatement to say that the San Diego Padres are in "win-now" mode.
They have just shipped off their number-three prospect in Luis Patino, as well as Francisco Mejia and two other prospects to acquire lefty Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays. Less than 24 hours later, they made another bold move to acquire another ace in Yu Darvish.
Looking strictly at the Snell deal, what does the move from AL East to NL West mean for his fantasy value?
Can We Be Confident In Snell's Health?
When Snell has been healthy, he's been awesome. Unfortunately for all of us, he has not been healthy very often since his Cy Young-winning season in 2018. The injury bug started biting in the middle of that season, as he had a short IL stint starting in July related to shoulder fatigue. A year later he had surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. In early Spring Training of the 2020 season, he received a cortisone shot in the same elbow. Later in spring, there were reports of shoulder discomfort. The shoulder and the elbow are the last places you want to hear about even minor problems with a starting pitcher.
The Rays coming off a World Series appearance and still being willing to trade him while there are three full seasons left on his contract would suggest that they are not overly confident in his health. The flip side is also true, the Padres being willing to give up a pretty big prospect haul for him could be taken as a vote of confidence from their end. The Rays have the information advantage here, and it is at least possible that they know something the rest of the league does not. That is mostly guesswork though so we should not be putting a ton of stock in that speculation. It is important to keep in mind the recent turmoil stemming from his pitching arm though as a fantasy manager.
Will The Leash Be Lengthened in San Diego?
Another issue with Snell in terms of the fantasy game recently has been the Rays' hesitance to let him pitch deep into the game. In 2020, Snell threw more than 100 pitches three times in 11 starts, failing to reach six innings even once. In 2019, he threw six innings just ten times in 23 outings. Even while he was in the midst of a long streak of taking the mound on a regular schedule, he barely averaged 90 pitches per outing.
There are no guarantees that he will suddenly be unleashed to throw 110 pitches an outing in San Diego, but it is a good bet that he has more opportunities for longer outings after getting out of Tampa Bay. The Rays are notoriously quick to pull starters and use their bullpen in a very unique way. Getting out of Tampa is a good thing for Snell's quality start, win, and innings pitched projection.
Park Factors
Prior to the 2020 season, the Padres moved the fences in a bit in Petco Park. That resulted in, you guessed it, more home runs! That change took Petco Park from a bottom third home run ballpark to a top third ballpark. Since Snell will be leaving a bottom third ballpark for home runs in Tropicana, this can be considered a downgrade. Snell did post a really strong ground-ball rate at 49% last year, so continuing that trend would combat some of this park downgrade. All-in-all, I don't think this park change should really move the needle, it shouldn't move his projections in any significant way.
Verdict on Snell
The injury situation was nothing new, and this trade happening does not actually change anything on that front. I think this is a positive move for Snell's fantasy value, mainly because of the chance that the Padres will let him go six or seven innings at a much higher rate than the Rays have been. We all know what Snell is capable of, he's posted strikeout rates above 30% the last three seasons. There are question marks about his health and overall consistency (he has yet to post a league average or better walk rate in his career), but that was already baked into the cake. I think it's justified to move Snell up a slot or two in the ranks after this trade.
Luis Patino Impact
The Minor League season being canceled in 2020 led to Patino making his Big League debut much earlier than expected. He threw 17.1 innings and struggled, with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and a huge 16.5% walk rate. He did add on a strong 25% strikeout rate with it. It is hardly fair to make any judgments based on 17 innings, especially given how weird the 2020 season played out. He was a high strikeout pitcher in the minors, consistently posting strikeout rates just below 30%, but he never did get to the AAA level.
We do know that Patino has a big-league arm. His fastball averaged 97 miles per hour on the gun last year, and he also features a slider that grades out really well. He also throws a changeup which is more of an average pitch but does play well with the big-time heater.
The main question for 2021 is where the Rays will place him. Since he has thrown just 87 innings above the single-A level, and none in AAA, will the Rays start him off in the minors? My guess would be yes, and that would really kill his fantasy value in redraft leagues. Combining the lack of a solid innings projection and the question marks about if he's even ready for the big show yet gives you a pitcher that is probably not worth a draft pick at this point.
It is, of course, a different story in keeper/dynasty leagues. Any young pitcher going to the Rays gets a bump in value in my book, as we have seen over and over again their ability to maximize raw talent. If there are rumblings that Patino could make the big league team out of camp, Patino would obviously have enormous upside and would then justify a later round pick. Either way, his inning count will be monitored (he has never reached even 100 innings in a season), so we should be geared more towards 2022 for him to really become a viable fantasy starter.
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