Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers - Arizona Fall League Standouts

November 19, 2024

Chris Clegg breaks down the top prospects who improved their stock the most in the Arizona Fall League for fantasy baseball, who could become future stars in the 2025 season and beyond.

Another Arizona Fall League is in the books. It is hard to believe there is now no baseball until Spring Training, but here we are. There is a lot to take away from the Arizona Fall League, but it is also essential to know what to look for. You can check my article at my site, The Dynasty Dugout about the Arizona Fall League Hitting Environment and what matters. I would love for you to check that out.

For reference, the AFL league average slash line was .270/.373/.434, and teams averaged 6.3 runs per game. The run environment was insane, and the hitters' performances should be compared accordingly.

Which ones should be considered future fantasy baseball stars to watch? Let's talk about some prospects who put up good performances and stood out.

AFL Risers - Batters

Josue Briceño, 1B, Detroit Tigers

Briceño dominated the Arizona Fall League competition, simply put. Few have put up the kind of performance that Briceño did over the six-week AFL season, as he became the first to have double-digit home runs since 2011 and was the league's first-ever triple-crown winner.

While surface-level stats from the AFL are fairly meaningless, Briceño was head and shoulder above everyone else, especially considering he turned 20 at the end of September. Briceño mashed ten home runs and put up a .433/.509/.867 slash line

Briceño has a massive frame that I would guess is at least 6’5” at this point. The power comes easy, and Briceño has a good feel to hit. He is a first baseman through and through at this point. I am not sure he ever goes back to catching, but the bat will play at first. It is an impressive skill set and a player who has improved a ton since I saw him in early March during Spring Training.

Josue Briceño finishes the AFL with 10 HR and the first-ever triple-crown winner. You would have to go back to 2011 to find the last double-digit home run performance. Briceño's 1.376 OPS was the league's highest since 2008. pic.twitter.com/36EijVR9fb

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) November 15, 2024

Caleb Durbin, INF, New York Yankees

Durbin is no stranger to the bright lights in Arizona. After spending the 2023 season there and performing rather well, the Yankees prospect took another step forward in 2024, breaking the league's stolen base record and likely holding a record that will never be broken. Durbin swiped 29 bases and was caught just once to bring his career AFL total to 50 stolen bases.

He showed incredible bat-to-ball and plate discipline skills, striking out just six times and walking in 17 of his trips to the plate. His overall contact rate was north of 87 percent, and the in-zone contact was up near 94 percent. Durbin posted an impressive .312/.427/.548 slash line with five home runs and 11 extra-base hits.

There has been a significant amount of buzz around Durbin this fall, especially with Yankees manager Aaron Boone talking about him having an opportunity to be the team’s second baseman next year. The funny thing is, Durbin is the same player he was last year in the AFL and pretty much his entire career. I guess it took two studly AFL performances for people to begin to take notice.

Otto Kemp, INF, Philadelphia Phillies

Kemp is a player I had my eye on heading into the AFL, but his performance and my live looks at him were impressive. Playing four positions in the field in the AFL after playing everywhere except shortstop and centerfield during the regular season shows Kemp’s versatility. He has plenty of value to provide with his glove. But what about his bat?

Kemp hit six AFL home runs and posted an impressive .289/.460/.733 slash line. The exit velocity data was strong as Kemp topped at 116 mph and had a 95 mph average exit velocity on 32 batted balls.

Yes, we take AFL hitter data with a grain of salt, but coming from someone who struggled to lift the ball at times during the regular season, it was encouraging to see Kemp get the ball in the air and hit it with authority.

An undrafted free agent out of Point Loma Nazarene, Kemp is an unlikely candidate to be knocking on the door of an MLB debut. But that is precisely what Kemp did in 2024, as he dominated the AFL and put up a .285/.392/.489 slash with 16 home runs, 24 doubles, and nine triples during the regular season.

Kemp swiped 20 bases as he climbed from Single-A to Triple-A by season’s end. Keep an eye on Kemp, as he just might be someone who could contribute soon in a utility role in Philadelphia.

Otto Kemp(INF-PHI) made my underrated hitters to target before the AFL article: https://t.co/WPpSUmNjoo
He blasted his 5th AFL home run yesterday and looks like he's ready to play in a potential utility role in Philly next year. pic.twitter.com/7LPu9jDsEH

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) October 31, 2024

AFL Risers - Pitchers

Jake Miller, LHP, Detroit Tigers

If you look at the surface, Miller’s 9.18 ERA across 16.2 innings looks terrible. But honestly, I don't think it's reflective of how Miller actually pitched, and we have to factor in the hitting environment.  I believe this is where you throw numbers out the window. Miller was highly impressive in my live look and had a strong arsenal of pitches.

I saw Miller when his fastball sat 90-93 mph, but he averaged near 93 and touched 96 during his time in Arizona. It is possible that my radar gun was running cold, as Scottsdale had no stadium velocity available. Miller's changeup plays extremely well off the fastball, sitting around 85 mph and having an impressive shape with late fading action. He also mixes a slider and sweeper in.

Miller ended the fall with 24 strikeouts and just three walks. This follows a regular season where he threw 87 innings and had a 1.85 ERA with a 25.4 percent strikeout minus walk rate. He looks like a future starting pitcher, especially if the fastball(s) continue to progress.

Jake Miller, LHP, Detroit Tigers

Miller was highly impressive yesterday, striking out 6 over 3.1 IP. Just 2 H/1 BB allowed.
FB sat 90-93 and threw a 4-seam and sinker.
CH is a beautiful pitch, sitting around 85.
Threw a slider and a sweeper. pic.twitter.com/6yzd5DdN84

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) November 1, 2024

Josh Stephan, RHP, Texas Rangers

It is probably fair to argue that Stephan was the most impressive pitcher in the Arizona Fall League, outside of Andrew Painter. Stephan threw the most innings of any arm there, tossing 20 innings and having a 2.25 ERA. Stephan struck out 21 batters and walked just five.

Stephan does not overpower hitters, sitting 91-93 mph with his fastball, but works the corners exceptionally well. He can run or cut the pitch and work it to both halves of the plate for both lefties and righties.

The slider sits in the 82-84 mph range with a good gyro shape. It has late movement and Stephan was comfortable front and back-dooring hitters. The 86 mph changeup showed a very late tumble and fade, keeping hitters on their toes.

Coming off a 2023 season where Stephan was rather dominant, injuries limited him to just 58 innings in 2024. The results took a step back, but the AFL shows that Stephan is fully healthy and ready for a 2025 season that could see him reach the majors.

Other Notables from the Arizona Fall League

Andrew Painter: 15.2 IP/2.30 ERA/18 K/4 BB

Samy Natera Jr.: 12 IP/0.75 ERA/17 K/4 BB

Luinder Avila: 14.2 IP/3.07 ERA/17 K/8 BB

Kemp Alderman: .306/.375/.833 6 HR

Jonathon Long: .338/.425/.662 6 HR

Denzel Clarke: .382/.495/.566 2 HR/9 SB

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