X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

ADP Arbitrage - Redraft Mid-Round Value Picks

Every year there are players at each position who fly under the radar during the offseason, only to outperform players who were drafted much higher. The individuals who can identify players with low ADP that have the potential to perform at a similar or higher level to the more highly-touted players oftentimes are the same individuals who have a good chance to win their league.

Although it can be difficult to pinpoint the exact players who will outperform their pre-season ADP, there is a method of simplification. By comparing players with late-round ADP to players who are going in the first two rounds of the draft, it is possible to find high value players in the middle and late rounds of the draft.

Using the ADP from Fantasyfootballcalculator.com, I have identified five mid-to-late round players in a re-draft setting who can provide more value than their counterparts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:

 

Mid-Round Assets for Re-draft

Comparison 1: Bilal Powell (7.01) and Jordan Howard (2.02)

The first player that I think is a great value pick is New York Jets running back Bilal Powell. All early indications suggest that Powell is likely to take over the starting job from the aging Matt Forte, and with the recent moves made by the Jets, it would not be too surprising to see Forte get released later in the offseason. Powell has shown promise when given opportunity, averaging 4.5 YPC in 2015 and 5.5 YPC in 2016. Pair his production and fresh legs with the second-easiest schedule versus opponent rush defense and he could be in line for a breakout fantasy season. Look for Powell to be a bright spot for the lowly Jets this season, similar to Jordan Howard in Chicago last season.

Comparison 2: Eric Decker (10.03) and Dez Bryant (2.07)

Newly acquired Tennessee Titans wide receiver Eric Decker is another player that has the potential to produce comparable numbers to a more highly-regarded wide receiver, Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant. The Titans seem to be a perfect destination for the veteran wideout due to both the positional need and the talent at the quarterback position. Look for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who excels in the redzone, to look for the sure-handed Decker often when the team is within striking distance. Decker has been a touchdown machine over the last five NFL seasons with 51 receiving touchdowns, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (55) and Dez Bryant (53) for the NFL lead.  Over that stretch, Bryant only has 156 more yards than Decker. Both Decker and Bryant had to deal with injuries last season, but with both now healthy, look for the trend of similar performance to continue.

Comparison 3: Martellus Bennett (7.06) and Rob Gronkowksi (2.09)

Watch for another player in a new home, tight end Martellus Bennett of the Green Bay Packers, to also be a great value pick in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft. Bennett thrived in the New England Patriots offense a season ago, totaling 701 yards and seven touchdowns and exceeding the performance of the injury-plagued Rob Gronkowski. Pairing Bennett with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the NFL's leading scoring pass offense should maintain his production from a season ago, allowing him to offer comparable value to the unanimous TE1, Gronkowski. Should Gronkowski be able to put together a full season, it is unlikely that Bennett will match his production; however, Gronk has only averaged playing in around 11 games per year since 2011. Bennett has played four full seasons in the last five years, and his durability and perfect situation in Green Bay suggest that he will provide great value for a tight end drafted in the seventh or eighth round.

Comparison 4: Samaje Perine (8.05) and Leonard Fournette (2.06)

Last season, rookie running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard busted onto the scene and finished the season as the RB2 and RB9 respectively. This season, most of the attention is being garnered by running backs Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Joe Mixon; however, keep an eye out for Washington Redskins rookie running back Samaje Perine. Perine is not a sexy choice like the players listed above, but he does have the skill and opportunity to make a similar impact. He has the best-graded offensive line of the four players mentioned, has little competition for touches, and is in a very fantasy-friendly offense. Reports from the Redskins camp reveal that Coach Jay Gruden has been very impressed by the rookie's work ethic and ability. Should he take over most of the early-down carries from Rob Kelley, expect Perine to produce comparable numbers to his more hyped rookie counterparts at an extremely discounted price.

Comparison 5: Marcus Mariota (9.07) and Aaron Rodgers (2.10)

This comparison is not necessarily a prediction that Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will outscore, or even match, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This is, however, an analysis of the value gained at each pick. In order for an early quarterback selection to pay off it is vital that the player chosen consistently outperforms mid-to-late round options at the position. With the added receiving threats, strong offensive line, and top five run game the Titans offense figures to be a fantasy gold mind. Mariota has all of the support and talent to be a consistent, high-scoring quarterback this season. His running ability and near-perfect redzone performance boost his value, making him a very solid option to be your QB1. With this in mind, it would be more beneficial to wait on your quarterback selection until rounds eight or nine and use that early round pick on a second-tier running back or wide receiver.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Love46 mins ago

Packers Agree To Four-Year Extension
Kodai Senga47 mins ago

Suffers Calf Strain In First Start Of Season
Jordan Clarkson56 mins ago

No Teams Interested In Trading For Jordan Clarkson
EJ Liddell1 hour ago

Heading To Phoenix
David Roddy1 hour ago

Traded To Atlanta
2 hours ago

Trey Jemison Claimed By New Orleans
Ricky Pearsall2 hours ago

On Track To Return Next Week
Mac Horvath3 hours ago

Rays Land Mac Horvath In Trade With Orioles
Michael Harris II3 hours ago

Confident He Can Return In Mid-August
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Scratched On Friday
Josh Naylor4 hours ago

Sitting Out On Friday
Giancarlo Stanton4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Monday
Mike Trout4 hours ago

No Structural Damage For Mike Trout
Justin Verlander5 hours ago

To Throw A Bullpen On Saturday
Kyle Tucker5 hours ago

Making Slow Progress
Jonatan Clase5 hours ago

Heading To Toronto
Yimi García5 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Yimi Garcia From Blue Jays
Zach Eflin5 hours ago

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From The Rays
6 hours ago

Kessler Edwards Gets Two-Way Contract
David Duke Jr.6 hours ago

Signs Two-Way Deal
Russell Westbrook6 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Denver
Tua Tagovailoa6 hours ago

Signs Four-Year Extension
Ryan McMahon6 hours ago

Rockies Telling Teams Ryan McMahon Won't Be Traded
Riley Greene7 hours ago

Tigers Place Riley Greene On 10-Day Injured List
Tanner Bibee7 hours ago

Lined Up To Start On Monday
Devin Williams7 hours ago

Expected To Return "In The Next Few Days"
TJ Friedl7 hours ago

Activated And Starting On Friday
Rece Hinds7 hours ago

Heads Back To Minors
Yandy Díaz7 hours ago

Rays Expected To Listen On Yandy Diaz
Byron Buxton7 hours ago

Back In The Lineup Friday
Gabe Davis7 hours ago

Practicing At Training Camp
Xavier Worthy7 hours ago

Back On The Field Friday
Jordan Love8 hours ago

No Update On Jordan Love’s Contract
Lamar Jackson8 hours ago

Won't Practice On Friday
Russell Wilson9 hours ago

Hasn't Suffered A Setback
Drake London9 hours ago

Overheats And Leaves Friday's Practice
Tua Tagovailoa9 hours ago

Fully Practices On Friday
Deshaun Watson9 hours ago

Takes Part In 11-On-11 Drills
Austin Hays9 hours ago

Phillies Land Austin Hays In Trade With Orioles
Brook Lopez9 hours ago

Bucks Don't Plan On Trading Brook Lopez
Leon Edwards10 hours ago

Set For Third Title Defense At UFC 304
Belal Muhammad10 hours ago

Has A Chance To Become UFC Champion
Gregory Rodrigues10 hours ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Arnold Allen11 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Giga Chikadze11 hours ago

Returns To Action On UFC 304 Main Card
Michael Badgley13 hours ago

Ruled Out For The Season
Jerry Jeudy14 hours ago

Dealing With Leg Issue
Christian Leroy Duncan24 hours ago

A Slight Favorite At UFC 304
Bobby Green24 hours ago

Goes Into Enemy Territory At UFC 304
Paddy Pimblett1 day ago

An Underdog For First Time In UFC Career
Curtis Blaydes1 day ago

A Heavy Underdog At UFC 304
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

Preseason Participation Unclear
Tom Aspinall1 day ago

Defends Interim Title At UFC 304
Draymond Green1 day ago

"Probably Got Two More" Seasons Left
Stephen Curry1 day ago

Taking Things "One Step At A Time"
Josh Christopher1 day ago

Lands Two-Way Deal With Miami
Anthony Gill1 day ago

Returning To Washington
Killian Hayes1 day ago

Signs With The Nets
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Trevon Diggs Officially Placed On PUP List
Dak Prescott1 day ago

Jerry Jones Doesn't Think 2024 Will Be Dak Prescott's Final Season In Dallas
Amari Cooper1 day ago

Wants To Remain In Cleveland
Jahmyr Gibbs1 day ago

Working As Receiver
Kyren Williams1 day ago

Likely To Be Primary Back
Billy Horschel1 day ago

Withdraws From 3M Open
Ja'Marr Chase1 day ago

Sitting Out Of Practice Again
Michael Pittman Jr.1 day ago

Spotted At Practice Thursday
Jarrett Allen2 days ago

Teams Monitoring Jarrett Allen
Jay Huff2 days ago

Signs Two-Way Deal With Memphis
2 days ago

Trey Jemison Waived By Memphis
Kevin Durant2 days ago

Practicing, Status Still Unknown
Orlando Robinson2 days ago

Signing With Sacramento
James Johnson2 days ago

Returning To Indiana
DeAndre Jordan2 days ago

Re-Signs With Denver
New York Knicks2 days ago

Tom Thibodeau Agrees To Contract Extension
Harry Hall2 days ago

Coming Off Win At ISCO
Matt Wallace2 days ago

Returns For Third Straight 3M Open
Cam Davis2 days ago

Brings Strong Recent Form And History To Minnesota
Keegan Bradley2 days ago

Returns To TPC Twin Cities
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Makes 3M Open Debut
Daniel Berger3 days ago

A Lost Soul Heading To 3M
Alex Smalley3 days ago

Tough To Trust At TPC Twin Cities
Joel Dahmen3 days ago

Is Fools Gold For 3M Open
PGA3 days ago

Fade Ryo Hisatune At 3M Open
Davis Riley3 days ago

In Poor Form Ahead Of 3M
Erik Van Rooyen3 days ago

A Bland Pick At 3M Open
Luke Clanton3 days ago

Amateur Luke Clanton Making Another PGA Tour Start At TPC Twin Cities
Keith Mitchell3 days ago

Is Likely The Riskiest Play Of Anyone In The Field At 3M Open
Billy Horschel3 days ago

Back In The Limelight At 3M Open
Lee Hodges3 days ago

To Repeat As Champion At 3M Open?
Jhonattan Vegas3 days ago

Returns To Action For 3M Open
Cameron Champ3 days ago

Struggling For Form Before 3M Open
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston A Bounce-Back Candidate At 3M Open
Beau Hossler3 days ago

Struggling Before 3M Open
Patrick Rodgers3 days ago

One To Watch At 3M Open
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Reenters Playoff Picture with Top Five and Stage Win at Indy
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

Bad Luck Continues at Indianapolis
Daniel Suarez4 days ago

Scored a Top 10, but Was Far From Contending at Indianapolis
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Fastest at Indy, but Not the Best
Joey Logano4 days ago

Indy Crash Had Minimal Impact on His Season
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Strong Indianapolis Run Ends In A Late-Race Crash
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Holds On For His First Indianapolis Top-10 Finish
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Falls Short Of Victory At Indianapolis
Josh Berry4 days ago

Wrecks Out Of The Brickyard 400
Virna Jandiroba4 days ago

Picks Up Submission Win
Amanda Lemos4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC Vegas 94
Kaynan Kruschewsky4 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Kurt Holobaugh4 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Vegas 94
MMA4 days ago

Jeong Yeong Lee Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 94
MMA4 days ago

Hyder Amil Scores TKO Victory
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 10th In The Brickyard 400
William Byron5 days ago

Violent Wreck Ends William Byron's Day At Indianapolis Prematurely
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Finishes Fourth In The Brickyard 400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5 days ago

. Drops Outside Of Top 10 Sunday
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Ends Up 12th At Indianapolis
Bill Algeo5 days ago

Suffers Second-Straight Knockout Loss
MMA5 days ago

Doo Ho Choi Gets First Win Since 2016 At UFC Vegas 94
Cody Durden5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 94
Bruno Silva5 days ago

Gets Comeback Win At UFC Vegas 94
MMA5 days ago

Seung Woo Choi Gets Finished At UFC Vegas 94
NASCAR5 days ago

Watch For Bubba Wallace To Perform Well At Indianapolis
Daniel Suarez5 days ago

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering At Indianapolis
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Expect Kyle Larson To Compete For The Win At Indianapolis
Erik Jones5 days ago

Is A Great Fantasy Pick For Indianapolis
Justin Haley5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Indianapolis Value Plays Of The Week
Zane Smith5 days ago

What To Do With Zane Smith In DFS This Weekend?
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Ty Gibbs At Indianapolis?

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP