X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Arbitrage - Redraft Mid-Round Value Picks

Sam DuPuy compares players with different ADPs to find good draft sleepers for the 2017 fantasy football season. These players could be mid-round values.

Every year there are players at each position who fly under the radar during the offseason, only to outperform players who were drafted much higher. The individuals who can identify players with low ADP that have the potential to perform at a similar or higher level to the more highly-touted players oftentimes are the same individuals who have a good chance to win their league.

Although it can be difficult to pinpoint the exact players who will outperform their pre-season ADP, there is a method of simplification. By comparing players with late-round ADP to players who are going in the first two rounds of the draft, it is possible to find high value players in the middle and late rounds of the draft.

Using the ADP from Fantasyfootballcalculator.com, I have identified five mid-to-late round players in a re-draft setting who can provide more value than their counterparts.

Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and 3 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOW

 

Mid-Round Assets for Re-draft

Comparison 1: Bilal Powell (7.01) and Jordan Howard (2.02)

The first player that I think is a great value pick is New York Jets running back Bilal Powell. All early indications suggest that Powell is likely to take over the starting job from the aging Matt Forte, and with the recent moves made by the Jets, it would not be too surprising to see Forte get released later in the offseason. Powell has shown promise when given opportunity, averaging 4.5 YPC in 2015 and 5.5 YPC in 2016. Pair his production and fresh legs with the second-easiest schedule versus opponent rush defense and he could be in line for a breakout fantasy season. Look for Powell to be a bright spot for the lowly Jets this season, similar to Jordan Howard in Chicago last season.

Comparison 2: Eric Decker (10.03) and Dez Bryant (2.07)

Newly acquired Tennessee Titans wide receiver Eric Decker is another player that has the potential to produce comparable numbers to a more highly-regarded wide receiver, Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant. The Titans seem to be a perfect destination for the veteran wideout due to both the positional need and the talent at the quarterback position. Look for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who excels in the redzone, to look for the sure-handed Decker often when the team is within striking distance. Decker has been a touchdown machine over the last five NFL seasons with 51 receiving touchdowns, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (55) and Dez Bryant (53) for the NFL lead.  Over that stretch, Bryant only has 156 more yards than Decker. Both Decker and Bryant had to deal with injuries last season, but with both now healthy, look for the trend of similar performance to continue.

Comparison 3: Martellus Bennett (7.06) and Rob Gronkowksi (2.09)

Watch for another player in a new home, tight end Martellus Bennett of the Green Bay Packers, to also be a great value pick in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft. Bennett thrived in the New England Patriots offense a season ago, totaling 701 yards and seven touchdowns and exceeding the performance of the injury-plagued Rob Gronkowski. Pairing Bennett with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the NFL's leading scoring pass offense should maintain his production from a season ago, allowing him to offer comparable value to the unanimous TE1, Gronkowski. Should Gronkowski be able to put together a full season, it is unlikely that Bennett will match his production; however, Gronk has only averaged playing in around 11 games per year since 2011. Bennett has played four full seasons in the last five years, and his durability and perfect situation in Green Bay suggest that he will provide great value for a tight end drafted in the seventh or eighth round.

Comparison 4: Samaje Perine (8.05) and Leonard Fournette (2.06)

Last season, rookie running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard busted onto the scene and finished the season as the RB2 and RB9 respectively. This season, most of the attention is being garnered by running backs Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Joe Mixon; however, keep an eye out for Washington Redskins rookie running back Samaje Perine. Perine is not a sexy choice like the players listed above, but he does have the skill and opportunity to make a similar impact. He has the best-graded offensive line of the four players mentioned, has little competition for touches, and is in a very fantasy-friendly offense. Reports from the Redskins camp reveal that Coach Jay Gruden has been very impressed by the rookie's work ethic and ability. Should he take over most of the early-down carries from Rob Kelley, expect Perine to produce comparable numbers to his more hyped rookie counterparts at an extremely discounted price.

Comparison 5: Marcus Mariota (9.07) and Aaron Rodgers (2.10)

This comparison is not necessarily a prediction that Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will outscore, or even match, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This is, however, an analysis of the value gained at each pick. In order for an early quarterback selection to pay off it is vital that the player chosen consistently outperforms mid-to-late round options at the position. With the added receiving threats, strong offensive line, and top five run game the Titans offense figures to be a fantasy gold mind. Mariota has all of the support and talent to be a consistent, high-scoring quarterback this season. His running ability and near-perfect redzone performance boost his value, making him a very solid option to be your QB1. With this in mind, it would be more beneficial to wait on your quarterback selection until rounds eight or nine and use that early round pick on a second-tier running back or wide receiver.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nathan Walker

Ready to End 16-Game Absence
Rutger McGroarty

Out Indefinitely With Concussion
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Downgraded to Questionable For Wednesday
Kevin Stenlund

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Ty Dellandrea

Ruled Out Wednesday
Matas Buzelis

Set to Suit Up Wednesday
Adam Erne

Misses Wednesday's Action
Tom Wilson

Aliaksei Protas Won't Play Wednesday
Coby White

Sidelined Versus Pistons
Anze Kopitar

Out Wednesday
Draymond Green

Upgraded to Probable on Wednesday
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
LeBron James

Considered Questionable For Wednesday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
Devon Toews

to Miss at Least Two Weeks
Gabriel Landeskog

Out for Several Weeks
Jamie Drysdale

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Bobby Brink

Injured in Tuesday's Win
Adam Henrique

Expected to Miss Time
Brad Marchand

Dealing With Lingering Health Issue
Haydn Fleury

Hospitalized Tuesday
Moussa Diabaté

Ryan Kalkbrenner Out, Moussa Diabate Probable Wednesday
Brandon Miller

Listed as Probable Wednesday
Alex Caruso

Absent for Second Consecutive Game
Nicolas Claxton

Available Wednesday
Moritz Wagner

Still Out Wednesday
Franz Wagner

Not Ready to Return Wednesday
Jalen Suggs

Remains Out Wednesday
Draymond Green

Questionable to Suit Up Wednesday
Jalen Smith

Ruled Out for Second Straight Game
Matas Buzelis

Could Miss First Game of the Season Wednesday
Coby White

May Skip Wednesday's Game
Cade Cunningham

Probable for Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein

to Remain Out Wednesday
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Could Return to Action Wednesday
Tim Hardaway Jr.

May Remain Out Wednesday
Christian Braun

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach
Mason Marchment

Out Tuesday
Sean Monahan

Available Tuesday
Jason Zucker

Set to Return From 11-Game Absence
Matvei Michkov

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Matthew Schaefer

Cleared for Action Tuesday
Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh Won't Return as Ravens Head Coach
Adam Fox

Landing Back on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Seth Jarvis

Back for Hurricanes Tuesday
Bo Bichette

Unlikely to Return to Toronto?
Jordan Love

Ready to Start in Wild-Card Game Against Bears
CFB

Jadan Baugh Staying with Florida for Junior Season
Washington Commanders

Commanders "Mutually" Parting Ways With OC Kliff Kingsbury
CFB

Byrum Brown Officially Commits to Auburn
CFB

Austin Simmons Signing with Missouri
CFB

Ty Simpson Undecided on 2026 Plans
CFB

Quarterback AJ Hill Following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Have Requested an Interview With Klint Kubiak
Deshaun Watson

Browns Expect Deshaun Watson to be on the Team Next Year
Wan'Dale Robinson

Dealing With Fractured Ribs
Cam Skattebo

Hopes to be Back by Training Camp
Cameron Ward

Won't Need Surgery on his Shoulder
Davante Adams

Rams Expect Davante Adams to Return in Wild-Card Round
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Fire Head Coach Jonathan Gannon
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Fire Head Coach Pete Carroll
Malik Nabers

Unsure if He Will Be Ready for Week 1 of 2026 Season
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Will Return to Ole Miss If Granted Sixth Year of Eligibility
Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor Will Return as Bengals Head Coach in 2026
New York Giants

Giants Expected to Show Interest in Former Browns Head Coach Kevin Stefanski
Daniel Jones

Colts, Daniel Jones Appear to Have "Mutual Interest" in a 2026 Reunion
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fire Kevin Stefanski After Another Losing Season
Zay Flowers

Goes Off for 138 Yards, Two Touchdowns in Loss
Bo Bichette

Phillies Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Dominates in Week 18 Win
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Kyle Tucker

Blue Jays "Remain the Favorite" to Sign Kyle Tucker
CFB

Joey Aguilar Undergoes Surgery to Remove Tumor on Friday
CFB

Texas the "Team to Beat" for Transfer Running Back Isaac Brown
CFB

Rocco Becht to Follow Matt Campbell to Penn State?
CFB

Texas Targeting Cam Coleman in Transfer Portal
CFB

Former Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Visiting Kentucky
CFB

Beau Pribula Visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP