Rashaad Penny: Week 17 Fantasy Super Bowl Hero?

December 31, 2021

Scott Engel takes an in-depth look at the late-season breakout of Rashaad Penny and projects his outlook for Week 17 of the fantasy football season.

In the preseason, I went on the record backing Rashaad Penny as a sleeper candidate.

Despite his injury history, the talent and promise was always there for Penny to unlock his upside. I maintained if he was ever pressed into an expanded role, Penny could emerge as a dynamic fantasy contributor.

As we head into the Fantasy Football Super Bowl week, Penny has finally emerged as a featured back for the Seahawks after a long and tough road to see the opportunity presented. Although he has been the unquestioned starter in Seattle for just a few weeks, he has become as a must-start fantasy player at the most important time of the year.

Flashes of Promise and Much Time on the Shelf

Penny was drafted in the first round by the Seahawks in 2018, as the team was looking to stabilize a ground game that had not been regularly effective since Marshawn Lynch moved on. Penny never started a game in his rookie year as Chris Carson emerged as the clear lead RB. A preseason finger injury did not help his preseason progress and he also missed two games due to a knee injury.

But Penny also showed why the Seahawks drafted him where they did at times, most notably when he rushed for 108 yards and a TD on just 12 carries in Week 10 against the Rams. In Week 12 against the 49ers, Penny rushed for 65 yards and a TD on just seven carries. There was growing speculation later in the season that Seattle could ideally field a standout duo of RBs with Carson banging on the inside and Penny operating as a big threat on the perimeter.

#Seahawks Rashaad Penny just embarrassed this Eagles defense 🤣 @SONTHighlights pic.twitter.com/0lLqjwiT7D

— Sports ON Tap Seattle 🎙 (@SONTSeattle) November 24, 2019

In his second season, Penny missed three games with a hamstring issue. But he also continued to demonstrate his significant potential to be an offensive playmaker when healthy. In a two-game span in November of 2019, Penny rushed for 203 yards and had three TDs from scrimmage. He had scoring runs of 58 and 37 yards. But just as Penny was gaining notice as an upside Fantasy performer, he tore his ACL in Week 14 and did not return until Week 15 of the following season.  He missed the NFC Wild Card Game because of more knee concerns. Penny rushed for 34 yards in three games in 2020.

A Fantasy Football Afterthought?

In the 2021 preseason, Penny did not have an Average Draft Position of higher than 49 at RB on any major fantasy football platform. Yet I still saw the path to fantasy success for him. Unfortunately, Chris Carson, who has admirably and often played at fantasy RB1 levels, has dealt with his own persistent injury issues. If Carson was to miss more time in 2021 and Penny could stay healthy, I said, he could finally show what he was truly capable of in an expanded role.

The Seahawks had also declined Penny’s fifth-year option, which provided extra motivation for him to show he was still worthy of being an important performer in Seattle or possibly elsewhere next season. But Penny immediately suffered a setback in the season opener with a calf injury. He landed on injured reserve, and when Carson went down with a neck injury that would prove to be season-ending, Alex Collins took over as Seattle’s No. 1 RB.

The Seahawks were looking to inject some needed life into the running game when Penny started against the Cardinals in Week 11. Penny ripped off an 18-yard run on his first carry. But he then exited the game with a hamstring injury. In the aftermath, reports surfaced that Penny might be headed for the IR again. Fantasy players moved on and intended to avoid the Seattle backfield for the rest of the season while Penny’s frustrating tenure with the Seahawks seemed to be coming to an end.

The Late Rebirth

To the surprise of some, Penny was able to return for Week 13, and once again showed off his electric abilities with a nifty 27-yard catch-and-run. Before the Week 14 game against the Texans, Pete Carroll indicated that Penny and Collins would split work. But the potential upside for Penny against the team that was allowing the most rushing yards to RBs was too tempting to ignore. So I did recommend Penny as a flex play even if he worked in a time share.

In an important late regular season week in fantasy football, Penny came through with the best game of his career, rushing for 137 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, scoring on runs of 47 and 32 yards.  After the type of performance he had hoped for from Penny all along, Carroll said he deserved a shot to be the featured RB for the rest of the season. Penny became the hottest fantasy waiver add of Week 15.

Looking at Rashaad Penny's TDs vs Texans, the first was Duo Wrap Strongside.

- Takes advantage of defense defending zone runs
- Counter footwork to set up block angles
- Wrapping WR (Eskridge) lead blocks
- Penny breaks two tackles

Great play call + great run by Penny #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/ByIOAcRztH

— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) December 14, 2021

Penny disappointed against the Rams, rushing for just 39 yards on 11 carries and leaving the game for a spell with a back injury. But he bounced back to the delight of those who started him in the fantasy playoffs in Week 16. In a much friendlier matchup against the Bears, Penny rumbled for 135 yards and a TD on 17 carries.

A Key Fantasy Championship Performer?

Following two stellar performances in three weeks, Penny has regained the confidence of fantasy players for now and there is even chatter about him earning a chance to stay with the Seahawks next season. Penny continues to be a potentially explosive RB, yet he has been a more physical runner late in 2021, taking on defenders more willingly at the point of attack and looking like a more determined inside rusher. When the Seahawks recently signed Adrian Peterson, he played just one game for Seattle, yet he was reportedly a major influence on Penny as a mentor.

By my count, Rashaad Penny broke or forced eight missed tackles yesterday. He simply looks like a different back right now. Running with far more physicality than any point earlier in his career.

— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) December 27, 2021

The Rams matchup was a tough draw for Seattle’s offense and offensive line against the Los Angeles front wall. But Penny rebounded well against Chicago and now faces a Lions defense that ranks 27^th in rushing yards allowed to RBs. The Seahawks will be without right tackle Brandon Shell (shoulder) and possibly left guard Damien Lewis (health and safety protocols) against Detroit. But undrafted free agent Jake Curhan has started for Shell in the last three games and Penny has flourished in two of them. The Lions defensive front seven has played well the last two weeks and was a key to a surprising Week 15 win over the Cardinals.

With Tim Boyle the likely starter at QB for the Lions, though, the Detroit defense may be vulnerable later in the game after many offensive drives flame out. Penny will certainly get deserved defensive attention, but his newfound additional willingness to earn yardage should pay off over the course of the game. He should also get some chances to finish off drives with short scoring runs. If the Seahawks can establish a comfortable lead, it will be no surprise to see Penny tear off a big run or two in the second half.

Seahawks-Lions could be a lower-scoring affair in the first half with a frequent amount of punts. But Penny will earn his yardage early and will get the desired numbers for fantasy players with a TD or two in the second half and two runs of 25-plus yards. Penny is a top-notch RB2 type for Fantasy Super Bowl week and can be a very important performer for your championship game.

Week 17 Projection for Rashaad Penny: 18 carries for 125 yards and a TD, two receptions for 20 yards.

The Future for Rashaad Penny

There is much to be decided in the offseason in Seattle as everyone well knows, and having a more dependable running game may be one box to check. If Penny stays with the Seahawks, it may possibly be on a one-year deal to show he can build on the late-season success of 2021. Or the Seahawks may decide to pursue other options, looking to move past the constant injury concerns of Penny and Carson in recent seasons.

Penny can certainly get a chance to show he can spark a running game elsewhere, as teams such as Miami, Buffalo or Houston are speculative landing spots where he could be a good fit. No matter where he plays in 2022, Penny will certainly be viewed as a risk/reward fantasy RB3 for next season.

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