Fantasy football is a game of controlling, rather than eliminating surprises. We spend hours trying to predict how each player will perform on any given week. We compare previous performances and delve into stats and data to avoid being surprised every week. Despite our best efforts, however, every week we find ourselves surprised. Whether our team outperforms expectations, or simply doesn't live up to them, every week in fantasy football we find ourselves nonplussed, to say the least. The very draw of the game of fantasy football is that unpredictability. If we could all predict the outcome of each game each week, we wouldn’t bother watching football or playing fantasy. That said, here are some of the biggest surprises at the quarterback position from 2016.

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Biggest QB Surprises of 2016

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – While experience definitely counts, Dak Prescott made it seem overrated this season. Finishing among the top ten as a rookie is no easy task, but Prescott made it seem easy every week. The young quarterback showed amazing poise and decision-making, and that’s reflected in his stats. Prescott threw 3,669 yards for 23 touchdowns and a QB rating - a metric designed to measure quarterback efficiency and decision making - of 104.9. Prescott’s was ranked 19th among quarterbacks in ADP last year, which unsurprisingly won’t happen again in 2017. Prescott showed all the definitive skill sets that you want to see from a quarterback and there’s no reason to believe that we’ve seen his best. Unlikely as it may have seemed last summer, Prescott is an excellent QB1 target for the 2017 season.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – Whether you love or hate Cam Newton, you can’t deny that the bottom fell out quickly for the young quarterback. After throwing for 35 touchdowns and rushing for 10 more last season, Newton never managed to reclaim his 2015 scoring prowess, despite the return of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. While Newton was never a prolific passer, 2016 saw him have nine games with under 20 completions. He also had nine games with only one touchdown scored, either passing or rushing. Not surprisingly, the Panthers coaching staff has intimated they’ll be reworking the offense to move away from the zone-read that has largely proven ineffective this season. Newton is still the talented quarterback that was crowned MVP less than a year ago, and this poor season will lower his ADP, making him a better value than before. He’s worth a pickup as a QB2 or a very reliable matchup-driven backup.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Speaking of ADP, Matt Ryan probably wasn’t even drafted in your league, and rightly so. Last season, Ryan threw 16 interceptions, which limited his fantasy potential. This year, Ryan has clearly improved on ball control, throwing only 7 interceptions to his 38 touchdowns. Ryan and Julio Jones were the first players on a team to throw for over 500 yards and receive over 300 yards in a game in NFL history. Ryan finished the season number two overall behind Aaron Rogers and earned his team a trip to the Super Bowl. It should be noted that Ryan was a solid fantasy quarterback prior to this meteoric explosion, and it appears that Ryan and the relatively young Atlanta Falcons are set for years to come for offensive success. Next year, if you have the chance to grab Matt Ryan, do it.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars – After 2015, a year that saw Blake Bortles throw for 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns, 2016 seemed far less kind to the third-year quarterback. Bortles threw for 3,905 yards and 23 touchdowns, along with 16 interceptions, two fewer than in 2015. Bortles still finished eighth amongst quarterbacks in standard-format fantasy points. Since Bortles plays in Jacksonville and is coming off of a less-than-stellar season, his lower ADP makes him a great QB2 pickup. Here's the caveat: per Bortles himself, the quarterback played through wrist tendonitis and two shoulder separations, which may have affected his throwing, but not his decision making. Bortles finished the season with a 78.8 QB rating, so there’s a lot left to be desired. With Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, as well as Marquise Lee and Julius Thomas around him, it seems even more surprising  that Bortles was only able to crest 20 points five times last season. The good news is that he consistently avoided low scoring performances with only two games below 10 points, which makes him a high floor/low ceiling QB2 at worst. At best, he has the potential to recapture his former scoring ways, especially considering that Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley is no longer calling the shots. Early ADP data from mock drafts show Bortles is ranked 21st among quarterbacks. Even if he is a low ceiling QB2, that's still a great value in my book.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – 16. Matthew Stafford was number 16 in ADP amongst quarterbacks, but finished seventh in fantasy scoring. Stafford was electric, throwing 24 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. He even scored two touchdowns on the ground. Stafford did it all for his fantasy owners, and at an exceptionally low draft price. While some of Stafford’s success stems from second-year offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, it can’t all be attributed to the scheme. Stafford came out to play this year and was only hampered by injuries, both his own and to key teammates. He did suffer a late-season slump, but it was obvious that the protective glove on his injured finger was the cause. An offseason of recovery can only logically lead to more scoring. Chances are Stafford won’t be available late in fantasy drafts next season, but he’s still a good pickup at quarterback. Stafford was on fire prior to injuring his ring finger and there’s no reason to believe that his healthy return next year won’t produce more of the same value.

Whether you love surprises or hate them, one thing remains true; they exist and we have to plan accordingly. Smart fantasy owners will actively look for players with the potential to pleasantly surprise us on the road to fantasy glory, as opposed to overreaching for players that are guaranteed to take us down the wretched path leading into dismay. Keep your eyes open and you might just fall into the former instead of the latter.