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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/1/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Yordan Alvarez, Jac Caglianone, and others!
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! As a group of wise philosophers once said, "Wake up, wake up, wake up, it's the first of the month!" That should bring good vibes to a very intriguing board. Not only that, but plenty of teams will be on edge with the trade deadline right around the corner. August is a great gambling month in baseball, so let's start on the right foot.
I'll be bringing you four hitters to back. We've got an MVP candidate, another duo of lefties, and then a deep pull I'm really excited about. If you are looking for some more options outside of these or other bets, make sure you also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 1, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/1/2026)
Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290, Bet365)
Do you need a reason to back Alvarez for a homer at this point in the season? Not exactly. He's smashed 35 homers on the season already and should easily set a career high. The only thing you're hesitating about is the fact that Jacob deGrom is on the hill for the Rangers. But it's not as scary as it seems.
Listen to the sound off the bat 😳
Yordan Alvarez destroys his MLB-leading 35th home run! pic.twitter.com/jQPRyTxGS5
— MLB (@MLB) July 29, 2026
That's because Alvarez has completely owned deGrom when he's faced him. Batter vs. pitcher splits aren't always the most reliable stats to go off, but it's clear Alvarez sees deGrom well. He's gone 5-for-9 against the righty with three homers. That's too hard to ignore.
Another important thing about BvP stats is that the history is recent. deGrom has taken the hill twice against the Astros this season, and Alvarez went deep off him in both games, one of which was a two-homer performance.
As far as the current state, Alvarez has a 57.6% hard-hit rate and an 18.2% barrel rate in the second half. That's amounted to four homers, which seems a bit low.
At the same time, deGrom is maybe getting a bit lucky. Over the last 30 days, he's given up a 57.8% hard-hit rate to go along with an 11.1% barrel rate. While the barrel rate isn't tremendously high, this combo hasn't yielded a single homer yet. That doesn't feel right.
So, let's back Alvarez here. We're going against the grain, or rather a future Hall of Famer, and it's actually a very favorable matchup for us. Now, let's head out to Coors for our next pick.
Jac Caglianone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300, Hard Rock)
Now, let's go ahead and fade a pitcher who's been getting barreled all over the place. Caglianone gets a nice matchup against the Rockies' Ryan Feltner, who's allowed at least one homer in each of his last five starts. That's amounted to eight homers total, plenty of opportunity for us to try and take advantage of.
Jac Caglianone crushes a 438-foot home run to open the scoring! pic.twitter.com/Rj6ZzPDykp
— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2026
Caglianone clocks in with a 12.5% barrel rate and a 50.0% hard-hit rate since the All-Star break. That's amounted to just a 75 wRC+ and two homers. That's not because he's striking out a ton, either. It feels like he's getting very unlucky, and Feltner may be the perfect get-right matchup for Cags.
The pitch mix really catches my eye here as well. Feltner will attack lefties with a mix of four-seamers, changeups, and sliders. The changeup is his strength, but the other two are prime pitches for Caglianone to crush. Feltner's got a .356 xwOBA on his four-seamer and a .561 xwOBA on his slider when he's facing lefties.
Caglianone, on the other hand, has a .376 wOBA against four-seamers (.389 xwOBA) and a .462 wOBA against sliders (.471 xwOBA) when righties throw those to him. He's hit 12 of his 17 homers off these two pitches alone.
We'll aim for Cags to crush one of these two pitches a long ways over the right field wall. Now, let's head out to an NL East divisional matchup for our third pick.
