RADIO
Week 11 featured perhaps the weirdest main slate of the entire season, as a lot of chalk failed and you only needed a combination of Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, and a few others to find your way to the top. Thanksgiving’s three-game slate kicked off the week, and every single team is in action in Week 12.
With such a big slate, it will be important to find sufficient value options. Hopefully by the weekend, some injuries will open up that value. No games boast a Vegas total of 50 or above, and only three games top 47 points. Let’s dig in.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Burrow ($6700) + Ja'Marr Chase ($7600) AND/OR Tee Higgins ($6900)
Red-hot Joe Burrow has been balling as of late. The LSU product has surpassed 31 DraftKings points in three of his last five games, and he’ll also get back his top weapon, Ja’Marr Chase, when his team travels to Nashville this weekend. Against Tennessee’s soft pass defense, that is music to DFS players’ ears.
No team has faced more pass attempts than the Titans in 2022. Tennessee has also yielded the third-most completions of any team. They’ll continue to face heavy volume in Week 12, as Burrow has attempted at least 35 passes in 8-of-10 outings this season. Additionally, with Joe Mixon on the shelf, that could skew Zac Taylor’s team’s game plan toward the pass even more.
Mike Vrabel’s team does get after the quarterback (30 sacks), but they’re also tied for the fourth-most passing TDs allowed (18). They will have their hands full with Chase and Tee Higgins, as the latter is fresh off a 26.8-DraftKings-point performance last weekend.
Preferred bring-back: Treylon Burks ($4200)
Leverage piece: Derrick Henry ($8300)
How do you slow Cincinnati’s explosive offense? Keep them off the field by pounding Derrick Henry. Though he’s been inefficient in his last two games (just 2.8 and 3.1 yards per carry), Sunday’s outlook is better; the Bengals are allowing 4.4 yards per carry. “The Big Dog” has posted 25 or more DraftKings points in six of his 10 games this year. In a game that could feature quick scoring and plenty of possessions, he’s a solid player to bet on.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa ($8300) + Tyreek Hill ($9200) OR Jaylen Waddle ($8100)
Favored by 13.5 points, Miami, in theory, should have their way with the Texans this weekend. According to Establish The Run’s Pass Rate Over Expectation metric, Miami throws at the seventh-highest rate above expectation. So if we expect the Dolphins to put it on Houston, and to stick to the script they’ve shown this year, Miami’s passing game should thrive here.
Fresh off their bye, you just know that Mike McDaniel will have his offense ready to pick Lovie Smith’s group apart. Only Detroit has allowed more total yards per game than Houston. Only the Lions and the Giants rank lower in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage grades. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combining for a 54.2% target share thus far, we know who will be making the plays.
It’s always tough to get a ceiling outcome from two highly-priced players on the same team. Pick your poison between Hill and Waddle and hope you’re right. One of them is going off this weekend.
Preferred bring-back: Nico Collins ($6000)
Leverage piece: Jeff Wilson Jr. ($7700)
Jeff Wilson Jr.’s integration into the Miami offense has been nothing short of remarkable. Though Wilson worked closely with McDaniel in San Francisco, it’s hard to believe the fifth-year pro handled 19 touches in just his second game with his new team in Week 10. Now after the bye week, Wilson’s involvement could be even more pronounced.
Houston is one of four teams serving up 5.1 or more yards per carry. They’ve allowed 220 more rushing yards than the second-worst team in the league (Chicago). If you’re looking for leverage off of Miami’s dynamic receiving duo, look no further than Wilson.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett ($5400) + Amari Cooper ($6400)
Playing against arguably the league’s most explosive offense in Week 11, Jacoby Brissett finally showed a fantasy ceiling against Buffalo — finishing with 29.86 DK points. Can the journeyman backup quarterback make the most of his final start before Deshaun’s Watson return?
In Week 12, the Browns draw the Buccaneers, a team that has really struggled to manufacture offense. But what if coming out of their bye, Tom Brady, Byron Leftwich, and Co. finally figure things out? There’s certainly potential for this game to produce points, but it will be up to Tampa Bay to find their offensive mojo.
As for the matchup for Brissett, it’s relatively decent, as the Bucs are one of 12 teams to have allowed 16 or more passing touchdowns this year. Brissett’s chemistry with Amari Cooper has also been on display all season long — as evidenced by his four 100-yard games and five games above 20 DK points.
Preferred bring-back: Chris Godwin ($6000)
Leverage piece: Rachaad White ($5100)
Setting career highs in carries (22) and snap share (64.9%) prior to the bye week in Tampa Bay’s Week 10 win over Seattle, Rachaad White is trending toward the moon. Facing a mouth-watering matchup in Week 12, White should be taken seriously; Cleveland’s run defense is ranked dead last by PFF. Kevin Stefanski’s club has also served up the third-most rushing TDs (16).
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Geno Smith ($7600) + Tyler Lockett ($7400) OR DK Metcalf ($7200)
In 8-of-10 games this season, Geno Smith has thrown for multiple touchdowns. In 5-of-10 games, Smith has totaled 268 or more passing yards. Like it or not, the former West Virginia Mountaineer is a phenomenal fantasy asset in 2022.
In Week 12, the matchup couldn’t be any better for Smith — as the Raiders have shown to be a very susceptible pass defense; Josh McDaniels’ defense is allowing a league-high 71.5% completion rate, are one of six teams allowing 7.3 or more yards per attempt, and owns bottom-three marks in interceptions (three) and sacks (13; league low).
Las Vegas is beatable through the air, but which Seattle receiver do you want to pair Geno with? At their price tags on FanDuel, it’s tough to justify double stacking. For what it’s worth, DK Metcalf is leading Tyler Lockett in red-zone targets 14 to 5.
Preferred bring-back: Davante Adams ($9000)
Leverage piece: Kenneth Walker ($8400)
Few rookies have taken the league by storm quite like Seattle’s Kenneth Walker. In nine career NFL games, Walker has evaded 54 tackles. That mark ranks ninth across the league, even though he ranks 21st in carries (121). According to PFF’s tackling grades, only the Jaguars are a worse tackling team than the Raiders in 2022. Fire up the explosive rookie once again when creating DFS lineups.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Mike White ($4900) + Elijah Moore ($3500) AND/OR Garrett Wilson ($4300)
Note: When you score three points, and lose 10-3, it’s probably not the best idea as the starting QB for an NFL franchise to deflect blame to your defense. With Zach Wilson pushed to the wayside, Robert Saleh and his team will turn to Mike White under center in a pretty solid matchup.
Justin Fields being hurt damages the overall upside of this game, but Chicago’s defense is still very beatable — as they are yielding 24.9 points per game. Along with that, Fields being sidelined could hurt the efficiency of Matt Eberflus’ offense, which could lead to more possessions/short fields for the Jets.
Seeing $3500 and $4300 for Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson ahead of Week 12 made me do a double take. These prices are just far too low for the talent level of these two players. Though New York is making a change at QB, these two guys are still viable — especially on DraftKings. White topped 250 passing yards in two of his three starts last year.
Preferred bring-back: Darnell Mooney ($5100)
Leverage piece: Nobody will play this stack.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke ($6500) + Terry McLaurin ($7500)
The Atlanta Falcons have given up 208 more passing yards than the second-worst team in the league (Steelers). Arthur Smith’s team is one of six teams to have tallied 17 or less sacks. Taylor Heinicke should be comfortable in the pocket on Sunday, and that will allow him time to look downfield for his favorite target — Terry McLaurin.
Since Heinicke took over as the starter in Week 7, McLaurin is averaging 8.6 targets and 5.6 catches per outing. Atlanta has coughed up the most targets, most receptions, most yards, and the third-most TDs to the WR position (Pro Football Reference).
Though the Vegas total is not high (40.5), it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Falcons are able to corral McLaurin for a low-quality performance. Believe in the fourth-year receiver in this plus matchup.
Preferred bring-back: Drake London ($6100)
Leverage piece: Jahan Dotson ($5800)
Rookie Jahan Dotson returned to the Commanders’ lineup in Week 10, but he barely played. Last week, the former Penn State Nittany Lion played 67.2% of the snaps and saw two targets. If you’ll remember, the talented rookie scored four touchdowns in the season’s first four weeks. Be early to buy back in on the talented Dotson.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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