RADIO
The sights and sounds of Kapalua, coupled with the incredible drama that unfolded at the Sentry was an amazing way to start the golf season. That said, the reality of the PGA Tour season is that to stay ahead of the game, you always have to have one eye on the following week with the ability to quickly turn the page as the season moves along.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for the Sony Open, which provides you with a first look at the players that I believe are primed to make a significant impact next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and, of course, motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings here at RotoBaller will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. As always, thank you for your support and I hope that you can put these rankings into proper use for the Sony Open.
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#10. Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris is set to make his full-field return to the PGA Tour this week and the entire community of golf fans will certainly have a close eye on his debut. Zalatoris certainly looked rusty 6 weeks ago at the Hero World Challenge, where he busted out a new broomstick-style putter, a welcome sight for many who have witnessed the yippy flatstick stroke over the recent years.
This will make the first appearance at the Sony Open for the World’s 38th-ranked player. Season-long expectations are high for a player like Zalatoris who was on a meteoric rise before he was bitten by the injury bug. Waialae should provide a good test for his iron game and a barometer for his season putting stroke on these flat and quick greens.
Chatted with Will Zalatoris about his brand-new broomstick putter. He's pumped.
“I can see the lines so much better. It’s just so much more comfortable. I was a streaky putter, I was always a zero strokes-gained guy but I’d miss a few short ones here and there. So far, so good.” pic.twitter.com/kuI08VD3fL
— Dylan Dethier (@dylan_dethier) November 30, 2023
#9. Denny McCarthy
It has been exciting to see the ascension of Denny McCarthy over the past 12 months. He has solidified himself as a top-50 player in the world while still awaiting a breakthrough PGA Tour victory. The best putter on planet Earth should be able to rely on his prowess on the greens this week at The Sony, as the course features some of the truest surfaces that these players will putt on all year.
Surprisingly, McCarthy actually lost strokes putting at Kapalua, but those greens are extremely slopey and slow by Tour standards. With the Stimpmeter typically in the 11-12 range at the Sony, I fully expect to see Denny bounce back and start his season strong on a golf course that should suit his playing style.
#8. Tyrrell Hatton
It's probably surprising to see Hatton, the 3rd highest-ranked player in the field, listed all the way down at #8 this week. I just have a hard time trusting Hatton to put together four complete rounds at this moment. Moreso, Waialae strikes me as the type of golf course that could frustrate Tyrrell, a player who is often irritated by the unpredictable nature of Bermuda Grass.
He did manage a 12th-place finish at Kapalua and fired one of the best rounds of the week on Friday when he went -11. He did so on Friday by gaining over 3 strokes with his putter which strikes me as more of an anomaly than anything else, given that he lost strokes putting the other three days. It was a long trip over to Hawaii for Hatton, and don't be surprised to see him catching an early flight home before the weekend.
#7. Eric Cole
The Eric Cole Train continues to run full steam ahead with no sight of slowing down anytime soon. He played incrementally better each day at Kapalua capping his week off with a Sunday where he managed to go -8, once again finding himself inside the top 15. Confidence simply has to be at an all-time high for Cole and he continues to impress with each showing.
Imagine for a minute, nearly 9 months ago this player needed to either Monday qualify or garner a sponsor exemption to get into PGA Tour events. He's without a doubt having the time of his life, continuing to tee it up every week and maximize his potential on a form-run of a lifetime that recently led to him winning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. He's statistically one of the best Around the Green and Putters in the entire field on Bermuda grass, which is the prominent strain of grass featured throughout the course at Waialae.
Eric Cole is just getting started.
The 35-year-old reflects on what it means to be the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year. pic.twitter.com/vzpUsIYcrq
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 7, 2024
#6. Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley got his season started off with a less-than-ideal T44 at Kapalua, where he lost strokes Off The Tee, Around the Green, and Putting. At the very least, he was able to shake some rust off and get tournament reps under his belt before heading across the island to Waialae which is an event he's played every single season since 2016.
While there are some missed cuts in the mix, I'm not concerned as his game has fluctuated greatly over the years but 2023 was definitely a banner year for Bradley. He's managed to move himself up to the #16 spot in the Official Golf World Rankings, making him the 4th highest-ranked player in the field this week.
#5. Chris Kirk
If you are looking for a player who loves playing golf in Hawaii, look no further than Chris Kirk. He caught plenty of TV time on Sunday at Kapalua where it seemed like he had the driver on an absolute string en route to a ridiculous -29 score and 1-stroke victory at The Sentry. Kirk has proven clutch when it matters most, showcased by his approach shot on 17 that he hit to three feet while tied with Sahith Theegala.
Kirk has also been phenomenal throughout his career at Waialae, finishing in 3rd place last season and 2nd in 2021. One of the main reasons is his ability to chip and pitch on tight Bermuda grass where he thrives. A par 70 with tight fairways, slick Bermuda, and not overly long on the scorecard sounds an awful lot like PGA National, where he captured a victory last year at the Honda Classic.
#4. Russell Henley
Full disclosure, Russell Henley's Sony Open Sunday collapse on the back nine in 2022 was one of the most painful losses in my betting career. That said, the form to end last season and course fit at Waialae are just too tough to ignore. Henley won here back in 2013 in his very first start as a member of the PGA Tour.
Henley lost strokes on approach at Kapalua, but that course is a brute compared to the much flatter and shorter Waialae, which should put a wedge in his hands much more often. I fully expect to see a bounce-back week for Henley at the Sony as he continues his ascension up the Official Golf World Rankings. There have not been many players ever that have posted rounds of 63 or better back to back in PGA Tour history. One of them is Henley...here.
Over the last 10 PGA Tour seasons, there have been 31 instances where a player held the 54-hole lead and shot 65 or better in the final round.
29 of the 31 went on to win
The 2 who didn't
Abraham Ancer, 2020 RBC Heritage
Russell Henley, 2022 Sony Open— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) January 17, 2022
#3. Ludvig Aberg
On my debut on the RotoBaller PGA Show, I begrudgingly told Byron and Spencer that I worried that we were overhyping the young superstar Ludvig Aberg. Luckily for me, it wasn't his week at the Sentry, but this certainly is not an indictment of his skill level... which is out of this world. I can't remember a young player this well suited to compete from a skill level standpoint out of the gates since Rory McIlroy. Ludvig is simply a stud!
For a player that drives it with a lethal combination of diabolically long and insanely straight, Kapalua just was never a great course fit. The Sony Open has not historically been a bomber's paradise, but we have seen players use their distance to an advantage when they trust their accuracy with the ability to take it over doglegs and cut a couple of corners. Before Kapalua, where he lost strokes OTT, Aberg had gained strokes OTT on the field in his previous 10 starts. I expect him to rebound at Waialae.
#2. Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick is a player who -- despite his pedigree -- should present some value to bettors this week at the Sony Open. He finished -22 at Kapalua with a T14 finish. I believe that he will be an underrated course fit at Waialae as the course should present a higher-than-average amount of approach shots from the ranges in which he excels.
Approach play has certainly been Fitz's kryptonite over the last year, but I believe he can lean on his stellar around-the-green play and putting when he gets it offline on approach. He'll tee off next week as the highest-ranked player in the entire field with a great opportunity to capture his first PGA Tour victory since the RBC Heritage, which coincidentally is another tight, short course that often asks players to club down off the tee.
#1. Brian Harman
The current holder of the claret jug will be firmly in his comfort zone at Waialae Country Club where he has played in every edition of the tournament for the last 10 consecutive years. In Harman's last seven starts on Tour, he has three top-5 finishes and, of course, the win at the Open Championship held at Royal Liverpool late last summer.
One would think he would be due for some regression in the new year, but he has picked up right where he left off with a T8 finish at the Hero World Challenge and a T5 last week at the Sentry. His ability to play so well on both courses -- which I did not feel were fantastic course fits for his game -- has inspired additional confidence this week, where he is primed to tackle the shorter and more exacting track at Waialae.
He has an innate ability to make birdies and hole big-time putts, but most impressive to me is his ability to avoid bogey when getting out of position. Over his last 50 rounds played on courses under 7200 yards, there is not a single player in the field who has avoided bogey on his scorecard better than Brian Harman via Fantasy National.
I expect Harman to continue his run of form this coming week, as he garners the top spot in the inaugural TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for the Sony Open. The Dawgs will continue to run hot in Hawaii! Good luck friends.
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