RADIO
The luster of an incredible Sunday evening in Kentucky is starting to wear off, but we are right back at it for another staple on the PGA Tour schedule, the Charles Schwab Challenge, held annually at Colonial Country Club. It's one of the longstanding events on the PGA Tour dating back to its inception in 1946. Through the years, we have seen various styles of play succeed on this classical layout that tends to reward terrific mid-iron play and strategy. I have put together a list this week, perhaps less as a traditional #1-10 Power Ranking, but more on my top players to watch out for.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why.
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No. 10 - Harris English
It has been a season of consistent progress for Harris English. His worst finish in his last four starts is a T34, and his best result was a T18 at last week's PGA Championship. English struck the ball well around Valhalla, but really leaned on his putter to the bulk of the heavy lifting, gaining +7.5 on the greens.
It's not unusual given that he's one of the best around the green and putters on Tour. English ranks 8th in ARG and 17th in Putting. He's coming back to the newly renovated Colonial with some confidence given his T12 finish at this event last season where he gained +4.1 strokes on Approach for the week. He's above average in his accuracy and distance off the tee box and he's a player to look out for at Colonial.
No. 9 - Billy Horschel
I'll be the first to admit that there is something about Billy Horschel that just irks me, but it's hard to ignore his trending form. We know Horschel has the guts and pedigree to win big-time events, which he has showcased throughout his career against some of the toughest fields. He should be coming to Colonial this week with added confidence after making an eagle on the final hole of the PGA Championship to finish T8.
It was Horschel's best finish at a Major since 2016. He was able to come in on a great run of form with his Tee-to-Green play, which helped him win the Corales Puntacana just a month ago. Horschel has an abundance of experience around Colonial and knows the routing well. If he can continue to keep his Putter hot and maintain his proficiency in Ballstriking, he could be set up well for another Sunday run in Texas.
Fair play to Billy Horschel. He’s worked so hard to find his form again after a tough 2023. He won his first PGA Tour event for 2 years just a few weeks ago and now has shot 64 in the final round of the PGA Championship to move into the top 10. He’s back 👏 pic.twitter.com/Qga1ffDEgJ
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) May 19, 2024
No. 8 - Adam Scott
It's undoubtedly been a frustrating couple of years for Adam Scott. Once he gets one element of his game clicking, another subsides. We've seen several players that in the "twilight" of their career have a resurgence and Scott still possesses the tools and power to win if he can find a week where it all comes together.
He's won this tournament before, and in fact, Scott has won four different PGA Tour tournaments in Texas in his career, something no other player has accomplished. He'll arrive on site this week off a disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship with hopes of rekindling some form in Texas which has proven to be a spot of magic for Scott.
No. 7 - Brian Harman
After winning a Major last season, Harman has admittedly struggled to get himself back on track and consistently in contention in 2024. He's shown flashes of brilliance with his irons at times, but it has been a fleeting success for Harman as it seems to come and go frequently. That said, he gained +5.5 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship which has to provide a swing rythem before Colonial that he's been looking for.
With Harman, it often comes down to course fit. Colonial sets up perfectly for him because he's able to utilize many of his strengths without being overly penalized for his weaknesses like power and long iron play. He's another player that chooses to play this event every year. He understands that if he brings his A-game to Colonial, it's one of the stops on Tour where he has a great opportunity to pick up a trophy.
No. 6 - Akshay Bhatia
A winner at the Valero Texas Open just one month ago, Akshay Bhatia is primed to return to Texas in search of doing it again. He missed the cut by a stroke last week at Valhalla, but a deeper look into his stats indicates a solid ball-striking week that was dismantled by the second-worst putting week of his season.
Bhatia has gained at least 4 strokes on Approach in four of his last six starts. The irons are clicking on all cylinders at the moment which makes him a dangerous player in time that he pegs a tee into the ground. For my money, he's the best value on the odds board and one of the players I have already bet for this week. Watch out for Bhatia making another run deep in the heart of Texas. Let's not forget how nuclear this guy can go when his game is clicking.
This birdie putt on 18 sent Akshay Bhatia to a playoff hole.
He won the playoff, won the Valero Texas Open, and earned a spot in the Master's.
CLUTCH.
(Via @PGATOUR)pic.twitter.com/nkJiqfNbNw
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 7, 2024
No. 5 - Jordan Spieth
After a lackluster Sunday at Valhalla that saw Jordan Spieth plummet down the leaderboard to T43, it just seems like a short timeframe to turn his attention properly to Colonial, a course that he has dominated throughout his career. He's always a threat, particularly in Texas, and will be one of the pre-tournament favorites. That said, I just don't see the appropriate signs and signals that would indicate to me that he is a better option than the other players listed below.
Spieth has struggled all season long with his irons, and I've noticed that throughout his career his Approach play is the one stat most indicative of his success. Many believe that he was the best Putter in his prime years, but it was really his consistent iron play that made him one of the best in the world. Until that turns around, I can't rank him better than the players in my top-4, even at Colonial.
No. 4 - Tony Finau
Watching Xander Schauffele rid himself of the monkey on his back this past weekend gave me hope for the future of Tony Finau. He's another player that has every tool in the toolbox to win Majors, but sometimes gets in his own way mentally. Finau is hitting his mid-irons beautifully right now, ranking 4th in the entire field over the last 36 rounds in SG: Approach.
Finau also has two separate top-4 finishes at Colonial in the last 5 years. It's onward and Upward for Tony Finau, who seems relatively unphased by the pressure of being labeled a lovable loser at times. I think he has a great opportunity this week to capitalize on his form and find that win he's been looking for.
No. 3 - Collin Morikawa
He went off in the final pairing on Sunday at the PGA Championship, his second straight Major doing so. But it was another Sunday letdown for Collin Morikawa who just could not get anything positive going at Valhalla. I am concerned that the disappointment could linger into this tournament, one in which he has historically played well and should be a great fit.
There's something about the Majors that has brought out the old Morikawa, the one that crushes with his iron play. Besides the two Majors, he hasn't gained strokes on Approach since early February in regular PGA Tour events. It's always a bit troubling to me when a player has lost something that is clearly their superpower, but it's hard to argue that a player with top-5 results in the first two Majors shouldn't be one of the top players to look out for at Colonial.
It was all going great for Collin Morikawa. Then, it really wasn’t. @garrett_TFE on what ultimately prevented the two-time major winner from winning a third at Valhalla.https://t.co/NeZRdZQyDt
— Fried Egg Golf (@fried_egg_golf) May 20, 2024
No. 2. Max Homa
Max Homa is another player who just could not get any positive vibes flowing around Valhalla. The putter was flat and in the big moments where it appeared he could make a run, they were always interrupted by an untimely bogey or short miss. I still believe in his upside at this event, as, unlike Morikawa, Homa has been on a very consistent run with his irons that feels more predictive.
Homa also finished T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last season and ranks out as one of the best options in the stat model that I put together. It feels like the other top players in the field will all be dealing with a substantial amount of negative "noise" outside of the ropes this week, and Homa may be able to slide in a take advantage. He's my pick to win.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
The top news story in sports, and maybe the country this past week, was of course world #1 Scottie Scheffler. We all know what happened, but you have to wonder if some focus fatigue will set in given that he has to go back to Louisville this week for his arraignment on Tuesday, creating a shorter-than-average prep window for Colonial.
He was able to overcome this before, at the RBC Heritage, albeit under vastly different circumstances that shortened his prep. All that said, I hope he able to put this crap behind him and get's back to doing what he does better than any other player on planet Earth...golf his ball. Playing in Texas is extremely important to Scheffler, and the crowd support should be overwhelming as he makes a run at yet another win this season.
Best of luck this week, RotoBaller family!
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