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Jackson Sparks discusses QB Jalen Hurts as one of the top dynasty fantasy football risers for 2023 after a stellar 2022 fantasy season.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had dynasty fantasy football intrigue as soon as he was selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft. At the time of his selection though, Carson Wentz was viewed as the franchise quarterback for the Eagles.
When Hurts took over for Wentz in 2020 and then started a full season in 2021, he began to climb the dynasty QB rankings thanks to his rushing upside. However, his production through the air left a lot to be desired heading into 2022, so he was viewed as a low-end dynasty QB. The fantasy community as a whole knew he had real upside, but it was to be determined if he'd reach his ceiling. After the 2022 campaign, Hurts' value has reached the sky and he's now one of the most valuable players in all of Superflex/two-QB dynasty leagues.
Let's dive into Hurts' 2022 season, view his dynasty value and trade market, and take an early look at his 2023 fantasy outlook!
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2022 Season In Review
Hurts burst on the scene right out of the gate, posting three top-four weekly finishes among QBs. Through three weeks, Hurts racked up 916 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 167 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.
After a small speed bump in Week 4, where he still finished as the QB15, he went on to finish as no worse than the QB6 in nine of his next 10 games. His greatest performances came in Week 13 against the Tennessee Titans (392 total yards, four total touchdowns) and Week 15 against the Chicago Bears (376 total yards, three rushing touchdowns).
He was nothing short of an elite fantasy quarterback and finished the season as the QB3 in total fantasy points and QB1 in fantasy points per game. He was drafted as the QB6 in preseason drafts, so he well outperformed his ADP. Hurts fell one rushing touchdown (13) shy of breaking Cam Newton's record for scores on the ground among QBs in a single season (14), but most fantasy gamers already believed he had that kind of rushing upside.
His passing ceiling was what set him apart from other high-end rushing QBs. The addition of A.J. Brown proved to be monumental for his development, but former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith also emerged in a big way, and tight end Dallas Goedert had a nice year, too. Hurts missed two games, but he was on pace for 4,194 passing yards and roughly 25 passing touchdowns with just seven interceptions. He was an efficient passer with his star supporting cast, so he paid off in fantasy despite the Eagles attempting just the 24th-most passes per game.
Ultimately, Hurts' final stats read 3,701 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 760 rushing yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns. Considering the Eagles were often leading by wide margins, it was a heck of a season for the MVP runner-up.
Jalen Hurts Dynasty Value/Market
While all dynasty leagues vary and Hurts' market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com is a rankings database where the pecking order is crowdsourced by the readers. That said, it's a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value may be.
After Hurts' monster season, he has now reached the sky-high value that was once exclusive to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in Superflex and two-QB leagues. For now, Allen and Mahomes remain No. 1 and No. 2, but Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts are right behind them at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. Keeptradecut.com has Hurts as QB4, but personally, I think he should be right there with Mahomes and Allen, if not above Allen.
Either way, he has reached virtually "untouchable" status via trade in dynasty formats. In order to acquire him, it would likely take at least multiple first-round rookie picks, a high-end dynasty flex piece, and a solid quarterback in return. However, it'd be hard to convince a Hurts dynasty manager to move him at all. The QB is just 24 years old and keeps all of his weapons ahead of the 2023 season and will likely have them in 2024, too. The Eagles also brought back all key pieces of their elite offensive line.
There are no warning signs for regression, so the buy window has completely slammed shut.
In single-QB dynasty formats, he could reasonably be acquired. Nevertheless, it will still take a massive haul since elite-ceiling quarterbacks have become more and more valuable in those leagues as well.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early best ball draft ADP via 4for4.com, Hurts is being drafted as the QB3 for 2023 fantasy football. Only Mahomes and Allen are ahead of him, so it's hard to argue he should move up. That said, any of the three are perfectly viable selections as the first quarterback off the board. Hurts, however, has the highest ceiling of any fantasy quarterback.
He's not quite the passer Mahomes is, but he could be on par with Allen and has a better offensive line and pass-catchers. He's a superior rusher to any signal-caller not named Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, too. Hurts just posted a QB1 season in fantasy points per game, so it's not a hot take to think he's a real candidate to be the first player off the board in 2023 Superflex drafts.
On defense, the Eagles have lost coordinator Jonathan Gannon, linebackers T.J Edwards and Kyzir White, defensive lineman Javon Hargrave, and defensive backs Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. While the team has the draft capital to replace those players and have key studs coming back, there's a chance the defense could regress -- at least a little bit. Philly ranked sixth in defensive DVOA last season. If they take just a slight step back, Hurts could see more volume overall.
Instead of Hurts handing it off every play or standing on the sideline in the fourth quarter, he could be forced to participate in more shootouts. Instead of attempting the 24th-most passes as a team, the Eagles would come closer to the league average. A slight regression from the Eagles' defense could be a great outcome for Hurts' overall fantasy ceiling.
Regardless, Hurts should be teed up for another top-three QB finish and he should be drafted no later than that slot in 2023 fantasy drafts.
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