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Gerald Everett: 2022 Breakout Candidate for Fantasy Football

Gerald Everett was signed by the Los Angeles Chargers to a two-year, $12 million contract this past March. He will replace veteran tight end Jared Cook, who finished as the TE16 overall in 2021 for fantasy. Cook amassed 83 targets during his one-year stint in LA, finishing in the top 12 five weeks of last season. At times, it looked like the end of the road for the veteran, which is why the Chargers opted to sign the younger, more explosive Everett.

Tight end is the most top-heavy position in fantasy. Unless you grab one of the elite options like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, there is a good chance you will often be scouring the waiver wire hoping to find the diamond in the rough.

However, Everett could be an every-week starter for your fantasy roster, and he is going at a value on average at pick 14.11 in fantasy drafts.

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Why Gerald Everett Moving to the Chargers Is So Important

Los Angeles gave fantasy managers mixed results at the tight end position in 2021. As stated above, Cook was the TE16 overall last year, being useful for fantasy managers a handful of times. Justin Herbert targeted the tight end position 137 times in total last season.

For reference, Everett has been on a team where the tight end position was targeted that many times in a season once in his five-year career, and it was in 2019 when he shared time with Tyler Higbee.

Player Name/Overall Rank Total Points Scored Average Points Per Game Top 12 Weeks (TE1) Receptions Targets Catch % Receiving Yards Receiving TDs Red Zone Rec. Red Zone Targets Red Zone Rec. TDs
Rank/Total Points Scored in Red Zone
16) Jared Cook 108.4 6.8 5 48 83 57.80% 564 4 6 13 4 #14 (30.5)

The 83 targets Cook received were 20 more than Everett's career-high target share, a total of 63. However, Cook had an abysmal catch percentage of 57.8%, the 41st lowest of the top 45 fantasy scoring tight ends.

The Chargers' starting tight end scored the 14th most fantasy points in the red zone, turning four of his six receptions into touchdowns. Cook did this as Herbert's fourth most targeted player in the red zone, a testament to how often the team threw the ball down close.

If Cook, at the end of his career, turned a putrid 57.8% catch percentage into five top-12 fantasy finishes, then the ceiling of Everett's fantasy value is squarely in the top 12 overall.

Everett has a career average 65.5% catch percentage and is a much better athlete than Cook at this point in his career. The Chargers noticed how much more they could have gotten out of the tight end position and upgraded to Everett via free agency.

 

How Gerald Everett Has Been Held Back For Five Seasons

Everett has been hyped as a potential fantasy star in the past. However, he has not been given a chance to succeed in the way fantasy managers may have hoped. During his first four seasons with the LA Rams, Everett shared snaps with current starter Tyler Higbee.

He averaged 51 targets per season during this time, flashing periodically for fantasy but never contributing consistently. It's tough to be consistent when sharing snaps with another talented player at the same position who typically out-targets you.

Everett then took his talents to Seattle, one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. He received a career-high 63 targets but was again inconsistent. Russell Wilson missed time for the first time in his career and did not look the same for a few weeks after his return.

Seattle threw the ball 495 times, the second lowest amount in the league, and once again, Everett was hit or miss for fantasy managers.

For the first five years of his career, Everett either shared snaps or was targeted at a low rate due to the offense's scheme. Now, he gets to play in one of the most pass-oriented offenses in the NFL with an emerging star at quarterback. The fantasy breakout can finally happen.

 

Gerald Everett Potential Fantasy Football Projection

The tight end depth chart in Los Angeles is fairly easy to predict. Everett will get the start, Donald Parham Jr. will rotate in and start in two-tight end sets, and second-year player Tre McKitty will rank third.

Of the 137 targets given to the position in LA last season, Cook received 60.6% of them, Parham Jr. got 19.7%, and the rest of the group combined for the remaining 19.7%. Of the team's total targets, Cook accounted for 12.6%.

Target Share % Targets Catch % Receptions Yards per Reception Receiving Yards Receiving TDs Fantasy Points
13% 82 68% 56 11 615 6 125.4

With the projection that the passing attack in LA will come down a touch due to the improved defense, Everett should sit at 13% of the team's total targets, equating to 64.6% of the total targets thrown to the tight end position.

Parham Jr. would also see a slight bump compared to last season, which would make sense since he missed a few games due to injury. Everett gets 4% more of the tight end target share compared to Cook last season, as I see him as an upgrade and one that LA will use a bit more often.

Everett's completion percentage should sit a bit higher than his career average. Last season, he finished with 76.2%, and he is not getting a downgrade at quarterback moving from the Russell Wilson/Geno Smith combo to Justin Herbert. Cook scored four times in 2021. Everett is a better athlete with a higher catch percentage and should come down with a couple more.

Everett would finish with 125.4 fantasy points, totaling all the above numbers. If you compare that to last season, Everett would have finished as the TE12 overall.

 

Gerald Everett 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

When looking to draft a tight end late, you want them to carry the upside to finish top 12 at the position. Everett's move to LA gives him the boost in targets, red zone opportunity, and the talented quarterback he needs to succeed for fantasy purposes.

His average draft position as the 21st tight end off the board in the back of the 14th round makes him a sleeper candidate bound to outproduce his draft cost. Everett has everything it takes to be one of the better sleeper picks at the tight end position in 2022.



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