July 26, 2016

Rotoballer Writers Joe Sorensen and Chris Baldwin face-off in a debate on the fantasy values of Sammie Coates and Sterling Shepard for the upcoming NFL season.

It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and Rotoballer is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our next article comes from featured RotoBaller writers Joe Sorensen and Chris Baldwin(@ProFantasyLife). Sorensen defends Rookie Wide Receiver Sterling Shepard in his attempt to be the #2 wide receiver in Giants offense, while Baldwin is on the side of Sophomore Wide Receiver Sammie Coates.

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Sterling Shepard vs. Sammie Coates

Joe Sorensen says Sterling Shepard

Two names that will be debated as the season approaches in terms of their expectations for the upcoming season are New York Giants WR Sterling Shepard and Pittsburgh Steelers WR Sammie Coates. But, there are reasons to why one of these players deserves to be drafted before the other.

At this point of the draft, several factors should be coming into your mind. What are the chances that he is able to put up at least WR4, maybe WR3, production? Regardless of the answer to the first question, can he provide one strong week when he is needed as a bye-week fill-in? If this is a dynasty or keeper league, what is this player’s value going into the next couple seasons?

Honestly, Shepard makes the most sense to answer all three of those questions. Some may argue that playing alongside Odell Beckham Jr. will hinder Shepard’s production, but this actually help him, in my opinion. Beckham got a robust 158 targets in the passing game and the departed Rueben Randle had 90 targets. There is no reason to believe that Shepard should not warrant at least 100 targets (Oakland’s Amari Cooper led all rookies in 2015 with 130 targets and finished as a WR2). Even if Victor Cruz manages to return to form after his latest set of injuries, playing in this offense should almost guarantee anywhere from four to seven targets each game. For a fill-in, you will take that upside. There is no reason to believe that Shepard does not put up at least 50 receptions for 600-plus yards and five TDs.  

In terms of upside in the long-term, Shepard should remain, or become, New York’s #2 WR going forward. It all depends on how Cruz returns this season and what the team wishes to do with him moving forward. With this offense and the fact that he plays alongside Beckham and will be catching passes from Eli Manning, at least for the next couple seasons, means that Shepard should remain a fantasy option for years to come. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Coates.

Regrettably, Coates has not done anything in the professional level that warrants him to even be drafted this season, let alone drafted before Shepard. In seven career NFL games, Coates has caught one pass for 11 yards. Coates also plays alongside one of the greats in Antonio Brown and his 193 targets, but unlike Shepard, it is known that somebody else will also be playing ahead of him on the depth chart, Markus Wheaton.

Many will believe that due to the suspension to Martavis Bryant and his 92 targets, it will be Coates who helps fill the void. But, the high-scoring Steelers also have Wheaton. Where there are questions that lie in the health of Cruz, Wheaton is healthy and ready to fill in opposite Brown. Reportedly, Coates is set to challenge Wheaton for that spot. Did everyone forget that Wheaton posted a line of 9-201-1 against the Seattle Seahawks last season? That line shows that the skill is there for him and with Bryant set to sit on the sideline for the entire season, 2016 will be the breakout of Wheaton in Pittsburgh. Coates will still see time in the slot, but given who else is on the team (Brown, Wheaton, Ladarius Green, LeVeon Bell, and DeAngelo Williams), it is hard to see Coates posting more than 300 yards this season.  

Chris Baldwin's Case For Coates

The Steelers were set to embark into the 2016 season with the top rated RB (Le’Veon Bell) and undoubtedly the greatest and deepest WR core we have seen in some time (Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates). Not only has the winning history of the Pittsburgh Steelers been a thing to cherish, but the team has been exceptionally fantasy relevant for the past few seasons.

It is no secret that the Pittsburgh Steelers have been hit the hardest this year with substance-abuse violation scandals by rostered players. Martavis Bryant will be missing the entire 2016 campaign due to a positive drug test early in the offseason. Le’Veon Bell has also acquired a four game suspension for violating this policy with a missed test.

These are two critical pieces that the Steelers will be undoubtedly tested when trying to replace for their respected suspended timeframes. The initial fantasy report might tell you that Wheaton would be the primary benefactor of the Bryant blunder. However, look no further than last season to see that may not necessarily be the case. It was believed that the 5’11”, 189 pound, Oregon State product Wheaton would step in and show what he could do; which turned out to be not much. Wheaton averaged 2 REC, 39 YDS, 0 TD in the four games Bryant was suspended. Ben Roethlisberger was injured and out for only one of those games, so it was not much of a factor in the offensive output.

With all this said, Sammie Coates may be the man with the plan on how to take advantage of a golden opportunity. Weighing in at 6’1” and 212 pounds, Coates is a much larger WR than Wheaton. According to Steelers OC Todd Haley, the Auburn War Eagle has had a “tremendous” 2016 offseason. Coates has nothing but potential and opportunity standing between him and a breakout season. It will be very interesting to see if Coates can do what Wheaton was unable to do last year.

Now, this article is a comparison between Coates and Sterling Shepard. To make my case for Coates, I need only the knowledge that Coates has had a complete season to work with his teammates and coaching staff. Shepard is a rookie. You never really know how a player’s college statistics will translate into the NFL until the game clock starts. Shepard has had a lot of buzz this offseason with the incredible opportunity he will see with Odell Beckham Jr. on the other side of the field. This buzz has accounted for Shepard’s ADP rising significantly (it currently sits at 99.2 according to FantasyPros.com) in the past few weeks. With Coates’ ADP still sitting at around 186.5 (FantasyPros.com), his cost compared to his potential fantasy output could have Fantasy Football Managers dancing with delight!

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