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Who are the biggest winners and losers in fantasy football from a crazy offseason? Joey Pollizze lists several players whose value increased or decreased after free agency.
The NFL offseason never fails to disappoint, and that was the case again this year. Quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Kenny Pickett were all traded, while Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, and Keenan Allen all found new homes. That was only the start of a wild offseason.
Plenty of superstars signed with new teams and some even with division rivals. Aaron Jones joined the Vikings after spending seven years with the Packers. Saquon Barkley went from the Giants to the Eagles, and Calvin Ridley signed with the Titans.
There have been a lot of moving parts this offseason, which will certainly affect players' fantasy values next year. So, let's dive in and see which players were the biggest winners and losers for fantasy football in 2024.
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Free Agency Winners
Saquon Barkley: Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley went from one of the worst situations in football to one of the best. If there was a perfect landing spot for Barkley, it is here with the Eagles. Philadelphia ran the ball at the seventh-highest mark (45.1%) last year behind the best run-blocking unit in the NFL. Lane Johnson (82%), Landon Dickerson (81%), and Jordan Mailata (80%) had the best run-blocking win rate in 2023.
Saquon Barkley addresses Giants fans:
"I got nothing but love and respect. I don't think I handled it the right way on social media, I could've given a proper goodbye...I'm forever grateful for the Giants fans." pic.twitter.com/V1XI5QeQTL
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) March 14, 2024
Some might point to Jalen Hurts potentially stealing goal-line touchdowns as a reason why this landing spot isn't the best. However, the Eagles scored 20 more offensive touchdowns than the Giants last season, so opportunities will still be there for Barkley to exceed double-digit scores. He should be a first-round pick in fantasy drafts in 2024.
Derrick Henry: Baltimore Ravens
The dream fantasy scenario for Derrick Henry this offseason was landing with the Ravens. That became a reality when Baltimore signed the veteran to a two-year deal. Henry should immediately step in and see his usual workload, especially with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins no longer with the team.
Henry might have just turned 30 years old, but he showed no signs of slowing down last season. He rushed for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns across 17 games with the Titans. Now, he joins a Ravens team that ran the ball at the highest mark (49.9%) and scored 26 rushing touchdowns in 2023. There's a strong chance the veteran can exceed 15 touchdowns and 1,100 rush yards this upcoming year.
Drake London/Kyle Pitts: Arrival of Kirk Cousins
The talent has always been there for both Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Both are former top-10 picks. The problem, though, has been Atlanta's quarterback play over the past two years. Marcus Mariota, Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke have all started games for the Falcons since 2022. Nevertheless, with the team officially signing Kirk Cousins in free agency, both playmakers finally have a quarterback who can get them the ball.
Cousins has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the years, which has included throwing for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in seven of the past nine seasons. He has also completed 67.6% of his passes since becoming a full-time starter in Washington in 2015. The arrival of Cousins will boost both Pitts and London's fantasy value with a potential breakout campaign incoming.
Marquise Brown: Kansas City Chiefs
Marquise Brown did not have a strong 2023 season, as he dealt with a heel issue for most of the year. As a result, Brown put together his worst numbers as a pro, totaling 51 catches for 574 yards and four touchdowns across 14 games. However, expect the 26-year-old wideout to produce much better numbers in 2024.
Brown signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason, which immediately boosted his fantasy value. He should step in as a reliable deep-threat option for Patrick Mahomes on the outside. This was the perfect landing spot for the former 2019 first-round pick because anytime you are catching passes from Mahomes, you are in for a solid season.
Zack Moss: Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss showed last year that he deserves to be a starting running back somewhere. In four games without Jonathan Taylor to start the season, Moss totaled 89 carries for 445 yards (5.0 yards per carry) and three touchdowns. His role eventually diminished as Taylor got healthy, but he still finished with a career-high 794 rush yards and five touchdowns.
Former Colts RB Zack Moss is signing a 2-year; $8 million deal with the Bengals that includes a $4.525m payout in year one, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024
Now, Moss should be the favorite to start for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024. With Joe Mixon traded to the Houston Texans, the newly acquired Bengals running back will compete with Chase Brown for touches this upcoming season. However, the four-year veteran should be in store for a starting role on an elite offense. He should be a sneaky fantasy option in the middle of drafts next season.
Honorable Mentions: Christian Kirk, Mike Gesicki, and Zamir White
Losers:
Jordan Addison: Departure of Kirk Cousins
Cousins leaving Minnesota and signing with the Falcons does not bode well for Jordan Addison's fantasy value next season. Not only does he have to compete with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson (when healthy), but he now doesn't have a quarterback who will sling it 40-plus times a game. Whoever the Vikings go with at quarterback in 2024 will not be great for Addison.
There's no doubt Addison had a great rookie season, which included 70 catches, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns. However, there are likely going to be plenty of inconsistent fantasy days with Sam Darnold -- who the team signed this offseason -- or a rookie quarterback. The loss of Cousins certainly hurts the young wideout's fantasy value this upcoming season.
Tyjae Spears: Tony Pollard Signing
There were high hopes that Tyjae Spears would be the Titans' RB1 this season. Derrick Henry was a free agent, and Spears showed plenty of potential in his first season to take over that role. Nonetheless, the signing of Tony Pollard was not the best news for his fantasy value in 2024.
Breaking: Former #Cowboys RB Tony Pollard is signing with the #Titans, per @AaronWilson_NFL. He will pair up with Tyjae Spears as Tennessee says goodbye to Derrick Henry. pic.twitter.com/GMdFsgNQc0
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) March 11, 2024
It's no surprise that Tennessee added a running back this offseason. That was going to happen with Henry now gone. However, signing Pollard -- who was one of the top running back free agents on the market -- shows that the team likely doesn't have the confidence to give Spears a big workload. Pollard will be the team's RB1, while the second-year back will likely sprinkle in behind him. He might see a similar snap share (around 52%) as he did in 2023.
Ty Chandler: Aaron Jones Signing
Like the Titans, it was expected that the Vikings were going to add another running back this offseason. The problem is Minnesota added a running back who will immediately step in and take control of almost all the backfield touches. Aaron Jones signed a one-year deal with the team this offseason after being released, which puts a hold on Ty Chandler's fantasy value in 2024.
Things were trending up for Chandler entering the new league year following the release of Alexander Mattison. Head coach Kevin O'Connell also spoke highly of the young running back at the NFL Draft Combine. With the signing of Jones, though, he will take a backseat in Minnesota's offense with a chance to be the full-time starter in 2025.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Antonio Gibson Signing
What made Rhamondre Stevenson a fantasy superstar during the 2022 season was his involvement in the passing game. Stevenson caught 69 passes for 421 yards and one touchdown en route to a top-10 PPR fantasy finish. Even last year, he averaged 3.1 catches per game for roughly 20 receiving yards, which added up to an extra five PPR fantasy points. However, the signing of Antonio Gibson likely sees him less involved through the air.
Gibson has always been known as a solid pass catcher, and he was the primary third-down back in Washington. The 25-year-old has caught over 40 passes in three straight seasons. That shouldn't change in New England, which will likely move Stevenson to the bench on third downs and in obvious passing situations.
Khalil Herbert: D'Andre Swift Signing
Khalil Herbert has always been an efficient runner for the Chicago Bears since he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He has a career 4.9 yards per carry and has totaled over 600 rush yards in back-to-back seasons. However, Herbert has only appeared in 25 games over the past two years.
#Bears additions so far:
• RB D'Andre Swift (3yr, $24M)
• WR Keenan Allen (traded for a 4th)
• S Kevin Byard (2yr, $15M)
• TE Gerald Everett (2yr. $12M)
• S Jonathan Owens (2yr, $4.5M)
• G Ryan Bates (traded for a 5th)
• QB Brett Rypien (1 year)
• OT Matt Pryor (1 year)… pic.twitter.com/es5GkZtth8— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) March 15, 2024
Now, he'll enter 2024 as the backup to newly signed D'Andre Swift. Swift comes over from the Eagles following his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign and should see the bulk of touches out of Chicago's backfield. Herbert will likely still be involved in some capacity but surely will see limited playing time. He is probably an avoid in fantasy drafts this upcoming season.
Honorable Mention: Dameon Pierce and Roschon Johnson
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