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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/18/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, June 18th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, June 18th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-152)
O/U: 8.5
The over seems like a pretty easy pick in this matchup, as the total should be much higher. The Pirates have hit the over in 20 of 31 games at PNC Park, bringing their over record to 43-27-1 overall. The Tigers have gone over far less, but Daniel Norris has given up two or more runs in eight straight short outings. Two runs may be all we need from Norris tonight with Mitch Keller opposing him, as Keller has given up six earned runs in both of his starts so far this season.
Both of these pitchers haven't had more than six innings of work in any start, with Norris only reaching that mark a couple of times. We should see them turning it over to their terrible bullpens fairly early, which are both in the bottom third of the league in ERA. The Tigers come in with a 5.14 ERA, and the Pirates counter with a 5.24 ERA.
My Pick: Over 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-146)
O/U: 9.5
History would suggest that oddsmakers have a tendency of making the total high when the Rays are having a bullpen day, but I am not sure why that is the case. The Rays come into this game with a 3.39 bullpen ERA and have gone under 9.5 in eight of the last nine opener starts for Ryne Stanek on the road. The Rays own hitting numbers at home have driven up the totals for those bullpen days, but the Rays have shown to be a much-less scary offensive team on the road this season.
The Rays over is 11-22-1 on the road this season, while for some reason Yankee Stadium continues to be pitcher-friendly, with the over only being 13-23. J.A. Happ has only allowed four earned runs over his last three home starts, and he should be able to continue that dominance today.
My Pick: Under 9.5
Houston Astros (-182) @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8.5
The Astros have won twice as many games as they have lost, so it isn't that big of a surprise that they are 21-13 on the road this season. However, the Reds are only 17-17 at home and will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound with his 5.47 ERA at Great American Ball Park.
Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Astros with his 9-2 record overall, and 2.65 ERA on the road. An interesting stat is that all nine of Verlander's wins have come by two or more runs, which makes taking the Astros at -1.5 make even more sense to increase the payout since Verlander will always have the lowest of odds on the moneyline.
My Pick: Astros -1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
O/U: 10
After the record-breaking offensive performance that the Rockies were apart of in their weekend series vs the Padres, it isn't a huge surprise to see the total at this number. I would have to guess that they will come back down to earth at some point soon, and the coaching staff will emphasize for the pitching staff to stop allowing 10 runs a game. I can see it coming back down in this game, as Chase Field has proven to be very pitcher-friendly in the past couple of years. The over is 11-16-3 in Arizona this season, while unsurprisingly the Rockies offense hasn't excelled away from Coors Field, with the over being 14-17-2.
I have picked on Antonio Senzatela when he is pitching at home, but he has been slightly better on the road with a 4.70 ERA. He has also allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five road starts, with one bad outing increasing his ERA substantially. Merrill Kelly will oppose him tonight, and he has enjoyed the friendly confines of Chase Field, boasting a 2.35 ERA, and allowing five earned runs in his last four home starts. In a tight, low-scoring affair in this matchup, I also like the Diamondbacks to come out on top simply because of Kelly's dominance at home over the past month.
My Pick: Under 10, Diamondbacks (-145)
Nate's YTD picks: 34-20-2
