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Andrew Ball analyzes which fantasy football running backs could dethrone Christian McCaffrey as the fantasy RB1 in the 2024 season. He looks at three options.
Anytime he's healthy, Christian McCaffrey is a near-lock to remain THE dude in fantasy football.
The elite San Francisco offense is built around his abilities in the air and ground games, and he's built to handle an 80-90 percent snap share. He failed to score a touchdown in just three games last season, one of which he left with an injury. McCaffrey scored 391.3 fantasy points in 16 games in 2023. Breece Hall, the RB2 for the season, finished with 290.5.
It will not be easy for any running back to usurp McCaffrey, but there are some candidates near the top of the rankings who have the chance to do so.
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Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
As a rookie, Bijan Robinson commanded just 51% of all running back touches for the Falcons. He still finished as the RB9 in PPR formats (246.3 points, 14.5 per game). Head coach Arthur Smith, who limited Robinson's touches, is out. New coach Raheem Morris has a game plan for the Atlanta offense: treat Robinson like McCaffrey.
Bijan Robinson says his role in new Falcons offense will be similar to how 49ers use Christian McCaffrey. Said he will be ‘more of a runner’ who does everything else, than a guy who does everything. pic.twitter.com/tWKN9fn0nM
— Justin Felder (@Justin_FOX5) June 3, 2024
Robinson finished in the top three among running backs in routes run and target share, plus fourth in receiving yards. In turn, he created 1,041 yards on his own (fifth among RBs). The Falcons likely won't dial up as many rushing plays with Morris at the helm.
However, with Kirk Cousins captaining the offense, the Falcons should score more than the 18.9 points per game (seventh worst in the NFL) they scored a season ago. Robinson also only received two attempts inside the five in 2023, a number that will go up.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Breece Hall finished as the RB2 in 2023, his first season back from a torn ACL. Generally speaking, it takes players an extra season before they truly return to pre-injury form. If he was already sprinting away from defenders in Year 1, watch out for Year 2.
THERE GOES BREECE HALL! 83 YARDS!
📺: #BUFvsNYJ on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/6SstXq1rq7 pic.twitter.com/17LZRdnNQw— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2023
Like Robinson, the Jets offense can only go up from where they were in 2023. Aaron Rodgers will return to command the offense and the passing game should open up more running lanes for Hall. The reception total (76, first among running backs) could go down without Zach Wilson constantly dumping it off, but the former Iowa State Cyclone has the talent to dominate games. He did, after all, top running backs in dominator rating (42.4%) and evaded tackles (77).
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was an RB1 on a points-per-game basis in 2023, a season marred by injuries and a contract dispute. Taylor essentially did not have a training camp while searching for a new deal and recovering from an ankle sprain. That forced him to sit for the first four games. A torn ligament in his thumb cost him three more games later in the campaign.
Jonathan Taylor only saw 40+ offensive snaps last season in 6 games. He had 15+ carries in just seven games and 20+ carries in just three games.
He still managed to hit 741 yards rushing on a modest 4.4 yards per carry despite the injuries/lack of an offseason pic.twitter.com/WxfpZkcXCD
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) June 10, 2024
Entering training camp with (hopefully) a healthy body, Taylor has little to no competition for backfield touches. Zack Moss has moved on to Cincinnati. Journeyman running back Trey Sermon, second-year back Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson will compete in camp for the backup job. The trio has a combined 92 career carries. Sermon is responsible for 78 of them. Taylor should only leave the field for breathers. Plus, with Anthony Richardson entering Year 2, the Colts offense is ascending.
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