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Dave Ventresca evaluates several fantasy football third-year breakout candidates for the 2024 season. Fantasy managers should consider drafting these players.
It’s never too early to plan for the upcoming fantasy football season. One of the best ways to get a jump on your league mates is correctly identifying which players are set up for third-year breakout seasons. Nailing a breakout pick can mean hoisting your championship belt in the air as you look down upon your league mates.
For years, we have seen many players make the classic Year 3 breakout. Just last season, we saw Nico Collins emerge from relative obscurity to finish as the WR12 in an out-of-left-field breakout campaign. While typically reserved for wide receivers, it’s not unheard of for players at other positions to experience third-year breakouts as well.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. With that said, let’s examine five potential third-year breakout players for the 2024 NFL season.
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Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco is coming off a career year as he set personal bests in rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards. Some of his underlying metrics were also quite strong. He finished 11th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), ninth in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 14th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Breakaway Percentage. By all accounts, Pacheco is just a good back.
#Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is one of my favorite RB breakout candidates this year.
He’s locked into a 3 down role in KC’s offense.
This is everything we’ve wanted in a KC RB for years now.
Career year incoming 🔥#FantasyFootball #fantasyadvice #NFL pic.twitter.com/Vv87H2SfN5
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) August 20, 2024
Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back, Jerick McKinnon, is no longer on the roster. When McKinnon missed several games last year due to injury, Pacheco filled the pass-catching role nicely. He finished the year with 44 receptions and showed he has plenty of pass-catching chops. With McKinnon gone, there is no one else on the roster who poses a real threat for touches. This is now Pacheco’s backfield.
We have long coveted backs in an Andy Reid offense and have, at times, elevated less talented players due to their perceived role in the offense. (We won’t name names, so we will just refer to this player as Glyde Bedwards-Melaire.) However, Pacheco is actually good.
And yet, a bell-cow back in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes only has an FFPC ADP of 33rd overall? Yeah, this is a player you should want on your roster.
Isiah Pacheco lines up in wildcat and takes it in himself for 6️⃣☝️
Chiefs lead the Raiders 7-3
— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) December 25, 2023
Pacheco is a real candidate for 300+ touches, and it would not be surprising if he again sets career highs across the board. He makes for a fine investment as a high-end RB2 or back-end RB1.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
There may not have been a bigger winner this offseason than Zamir White.
Nice vote of confidence from #Raiders in Zamir White this offseason:
1. Let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency
2. Only added Alexander Mattison, PFF's No. 56 RB among 63 qualifiers last season
3. Used just 1-of-8 draft picks at RB, a Round 6 pick on pass-catcher Dylan Laube
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 28, 2024
White played quite well in limited action last year. He finished 14th in RYOE/ATT and second in Rush Percent Over Expected. White received plenty of work while filling in for Josh Jacobs. In his four starts, White averaged over 23 touches per game. That kind of volume would put White on the RB1 radar.
Zamir White's vision was on point vs. the Chiefs, and you see it on the last two runs that ended the game.
On the 1st run, he presses the line, holding the LB with his eyes before hitting the C gap behind Johnson for 43.
2nd run, White shows patience and finds the hole backside… pic.twitter.com/CvstOJURxb
— Marcus Johnson (@TheMarcJohnNFL) December 27, 2023
The Raiders only added Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube to the backfield this offseason. Mattison has never proven to be effective. Laube is underrated as a rusher, but he profiles more as a receiving back. White doesn’t profile as a strong pass-catching back, and this could ding his value in PPR leagues depending on what kind of role Laube earns to start the year.
Overall, though, these additions bode very well for White’s 2024 outlook. He appears to be a talented back and will have volume on his side. Fantasy owners can count on him for solid RB2 production. If White maintains the same volume he saw in a limited sample last year, he can push for a back-end RB1 finish.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens' place on our list is contingent on the Steelers' potential acquisition of San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Should Pittsburgh pull the trigger on a deal, we will revisit Pickens' status as a breakout.
With the Steelers shipping Diontae Johnson off to Carolina, Pickens currently stands as the Steelers’ new WR1. He is an intriguing third-year breakout pick given what he’s been able to do whenever Johnson was forced to miss action.
From Weeks 2-7, while Diontae Johnson was dealing with injury...
George Pickens ranked:
+ top-12 in target share
+ top-10 in first-read target share
+ top-7 in yards per route run
+ top-7 in yards per target over expectation
+ top-3 in yards after the catch per reception— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 13, 2024
Pickens closed 2023 on a high note, finishing his final three games with a combined 14-373-2 stat line. This was highlighted by a 195-yard, two-touchdown performance in a Week 16 win against the Cincinnati Bengals.
GEORGE PICKENS CAREER LONG 86-YARD TOUCHDOWN!
Steelers start off HOT! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/H3DyRvtFrG
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 23, 2023
Some are concerned by the arrival of former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to run Pittsburgh’s offense. Despite his shortcomings in Atlanta, a Pickens breakout under Smith would not be unprecedented. A.J. Brown finished as the WR12 in 2020 playing in Smith’s offense with the Tennessee Titans. Corey Davis also enjoyed a career-best season playing for Smith that year.
Pickens showcased his upside at the end of 2023. With Johnson now out of the picture, Pickens is in a position to make a Year 3 leap. Fantasy gamers have every reason to be excited for his 2024 season.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
During his first two years, London has dealt with terrible quarterback play and questionable play-calling. It would be hard-pressed for any receiver to produce when their play-caller is scheming up plays for a backup tight end and their fifth wide receiver over the player chosen eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
While it’s been a tough start to his career, we have to remember that London is a good player.
Drake London climbs the ladder for the tough catch 💪
📺: #ATLvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05gT8f pic.twitter.com/urIxwijF5l— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
London now gets a massive quarterback upgrade with Kirk Cousins signing a four-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons. There is also a new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, in town. Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple and comes from a system where they traditionally hyper-target their top options in the receiving game. These all bode very well for London’s outlook. With a complete offensive overhaul, we can expect London to put up career highs across the board in 2024. He is an easy third-year breakout call.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
A popular breakout pick last year, Wilson’s 2023 was derailed four snaps into the season when quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles tendon. As a result, Wilson went from a PPR WR21 finish in 2022 to a WR26 finish last year. He was a disappointment relative to expectations and where he was taken in drafts.
Despite all that, Wilson’s advanced metrics were still strong. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Wilson had a 25% targets per route run (TPRR) and a 27% target share in 2023. Both these marks were actually better than what he posted as a rookie in 2022.
The breakout case for Wilson remains simple. He has managed to eclipse 80 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving with horrific quarterback play each of the past two seasons. He remains a very talented player.
GARRETT WILSON 68 YARD TOUCHDOWN 🔥 🔥
That’s a 13.8 fantasy point play 😱pic.twitter.com/pkcG3CYZwZ
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 17, 2023
Reinsert a future Hall of Fame quarterback into the mix, and Wilson is once again set to explode. This time, we just need all parties involved to stay healthy.
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