Pitcher Buy-Lows - Second Half Fantasy Baseball Outlooks for Gerrit Cole, Pablo Lopez, Kevin Gausman

July 22, 2024

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) highlights four buy-low starting pitchers for the second half of the 2024 MLB season.

At the halfway point of the MLB season, fantasy managers need to identify value wherever they can find it. This can take the form of acquiring a player who might move to a better team before the trade deadline. It also may mean identifying "slow starters" who are likely to show their best stuff in the second half.

However improvement manifests, those managers who find value can bolster their chances of making the playoffs significantly. Furthermore, most pitchers, save a few recent call-ups, have accrued enough innings to even out the "noise" in their peripheral statistics. Savvy managers can look for gaps in statistics such as ERA and FIP to try to identify pitchers worth acquiring with second-half upside.

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) highlights four starting pitchers who are underperforming their peripheral statistics. These arms, for various reasons, have not lived up to first-half expectations but still project to add significant value down the stretch. Managers may be able to make a reasonable trade for one of these arms and watch the contributions roll in over the rest of the fantasy baseball season.

Top Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Buy-Low Candidates

Pablo Lopez - Minnesota Twins

Lopez was a consensus top-10 starting pitcher going into the 2024, only to see himself overshadowed by Joe Ryan (and even Bailey Ober) to start 2024. He has still produced significant results in the strikeout column, averaging more than a strikeout per inning through the first half. But managers who currently own him can vouch for the fact that he has been a nightmare for ratios many times this year.

With a 5.11 ERA, it may even be tempting to sit Lopez against stronger lineups. However, his peripheral statistics are arguably the best example of "buy low" that is out there right now. A 3.83 FIP and 3.21 xFIP better showcase the "true" Lopez. Even if he were to end the season closer to that FIP, that would take a strong second-half ERA somewhere between 3.00-3.50. There is minimal reason to expect otherwise at this point.

As to why the first half was not what managers expected, there are some differences from last year. The main one seems to be the quality and launch angle of contact. In 2024, Lopez is sporting an 8.4% Barrel%, up from 6.3% in 2023. Along with this, his FB% has increased from 36.3% to 40.0%. A large discrepancy between xFIP and FIP often points to HR as a problem, and the other statistics mentioned here fit with that as well.

Interestingly, Statcast heat maps show that only his changeup is staying slightly higher in the zone in 2024 than in 2023, while his fastball and sleeper heat maps are relatively similar from 2023 to 2024. Paradoxically, the launch angle on his changeup is down, but up for those other two pitches. If there was a clearer underlying problem to explain the launch angle and fly balls, there may be more cause for concern. As it stands, managers should actively be making offers for Lopez to enjoy his strong second half.

Kevin Gausman - Toronto Blue Jays

How do we know he's got gas? (shout out to all my Dumb & Dumber fans). The Gasman has been a major disappointment this year. Despite logging a solid 104 IP to this point, he is ranked 472 in standard Yahoo leagues against a preseason projection of 34. That is hard to stomach, and managers are more likely to be selling Gausman than Cole (see below). One could argue that Gausman is the "easiest" target on this list, but is he worth it?

The answer, based on peripheral statistics, is a resounding "yes." His ERA currently sits at an ugly 4.50, but his 3.88 FIP and 3.71 xFIP suggest improvement in the months to come. While those numbers in isolation are mediocre, to achieve them after the first half he has had, he will need to pitch to an ERA around 3.00-3.25 in the second half, which would be a strong contribution for any fantasy pitching staff.

Kevin Gausman, 95mph Paint. 🖌️🎨

10th K pic.twitter.com/IYJhI9XhcA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2024

The strikeouts have also been down this year. Gausman holds exactly one K/IP so far in 2024, with 104 Ks across 104 IP. In 2023, he posted 237 K in 185 IP. The drop-off is most likely explained by his splitter. In 2023 his splitter held a 43.2% Whiff% and 23.8% PutAway%. In 2024 that same pitch is showing a 33.0% Whiff% and 16.3% PutAway%. As with Lopez above, is there something under the hood that suggests this pitch is "off" this year?

His splitter velocity sits at 85.7mph which was 86.3mph on average in 2023. This is well within the standard deviation of these measurements, so do not consider this a velocity drop. The Spin score for his splitter is 1799 this season, nearly identical to 2023 when it was 1787. The heat maps are nearly identical, spending time either at the bottom of the zone or well below it. It seems likely his splitter is similar to what it always has been, and a return to form (or at least close to it) should follow. Gausman can be bought for pennies on the dollar. Try moving an above-average hitter for him and see if you can haggle out a bargain trade for a likely SP2 through the remainder of the season.

Gerrit Cole - New York Yankees

Boy howdy has this been a tough use of a roster spot (even an IL spot) for managers so far in 2024. After being shut down in spring training with elbow nerve inflammation and edema (swelling), Cole made his return on June 19 with mixed results since then.

Cole has made five starts since his return. Except for one four-inning, no-strikeout outing against the Mets, Cole has been putting up decent strikeout numbers, including eight against the Red Sox and seven against a strong Orioles lineup. He held that same lethal Orioles lineup to just one ER in his last start. He caught the Grimace Mets towards the end of June, inflating his ERA, but outside of that, he has been solid and consistently improving since his return.

Gerrit Cole strikes out the side in the fourth! pic.twitter.com/7FF3sVgT2i

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 6, 2024

A critical place to look when a pitcher has a throwing arm injury is velocity. In his limited time back in 2024, Cole's four-seam fastball is averaging 95.9mph, just slightly down from 96.7 MPH in 2023. As he continues to ramp back up, and now with some extra rest from the break, it seems likely that Cole can maintain his velocity compared to prior years. Keeping an eye on this will be key though.

With such a limited sample size, it is a bit difficult to assess Cole's peripheral statistics such as FIP and xFIP. Time will tell in terms of how these level out, but for now, managers can target Cole knowing that his velocity is there and he has improved with pretty much every start since his return. If the Yankees can turn it on, he will add some wins, but even without that, the strikeout and ratio upsides are there. Send some offers now, perhaps an OF2 plus or minus a middling closer, and see if you can pry Cole from his current manager's hands.

Spencer Schwellenbach - Atlanta Braves

For deeper leagues, take a look at what Schwellenbach has quietly been doing for a Braves team that has been overshadowed by injuries and the Phillies in the NL East. Many things in Schwellenbach's favor are not necessarily "metrics" that deserve attention. He plays in a strong farm system that has a reputation for identifying and developing strong young arms. He was a second-round draft pick out of Nebraska in 2021 and is just 24 years old. If anything, he seems likely to continue trending upward from his already solid start to 2024.

Spencer Schwellenbach earned the first Quality Start of his career against this elite Orioles lineup 👏🏼

6.0 IP
2 ER
4 H
2 BB
3 K
3.14 FIP
4.31 xFIP

83.7 MPH Exit Velo
27.8% HardHit
0.0% Barrel

18% Whiff
25% CSWpic.twitter.com/yi7xPONX7V

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) June 13, 2024

Admittedly, the sample size is small with 44.2 IP in 2024. There is also the chance of a demotion at some point for load management. Regardless, at just 30% owned in Yahoo leagues, he can be a true diamond in the rough just waiting to be found. He has a nice, six-pitch repertoire and leads with a 96+ mph four-seam fastball, complimented by a 92 mph cutter. He mixes in a slider, curveball, splitter, and sinker to fool hitters with similar release points but various combinations of movement and speed.

He holds a modest 21.9% K% in 2024 but flashed potential for brilliance in double-A this year before his call-up. In his short time in the minors this year, he was holding an eye-popping 38.6% K%. He is also fairly reliable in limiting self-inflicted damage with a useful 5.3% BB% so far in 2024. There is certainly a strikeout upside there, and it is nicely coupled with a relatively low potential for walks.

Ratios can be a bit volatile on 44 2/3 IP of sample size, but for what it is worth, Schwellenbach's current 4.43 sits with a 3.44 FIP and 3.87 xFIP. If he can approach that FIP playing for a Braves team that can still produce wins despite injuries, Schwellenbach can be an SP3 for the remainder of 2024. He is an easy scoop if available in 12-team leagues, and those in shallower leagues should be auditioning him in good streaming matchups with the potential to hold him for the remainder of the year.

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