X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitcher Buy-Lows - Second Half Fantasy Baseball Outlooks for Gerrit Cole, Pablo Lopez, Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) highlights four buy-low starting pitchers for the second half of the 2024 MLB season.

At the halfway point of the MLB season, fantasy managers need to identify value wherever they can find it. This can take the form of acquiring a player who might move to a better team before the trade deadline. It also may mean identifying "slow starters" who are likely to show their best stuff in the second half.

However improvement manifests, those managers who find value can bolster their chances of making the playoffs significantly. Furthermore, most pitchers, save a few recent call-ups, have accrued enough innings to even out the "noise" in their peripheral statistics. Savvy managers can look for gaps in statistics such as ERA and FIP to try to identify pitchers worth acquiring with second-half upside.

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) highlights four starting pitchers who are underperforming their peripheral statistics. These arms, for various reasons, have not lived up to first-half expectations but still project to add significant value down the stretch. Managers may be able to make a reasonable trade for one of these arms and watch the contributions roll in over the rest of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Top Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Buy-Low Candidates

Pablo Lopez - Minnesota Twins

Lopez was a consensus top-10 starting pitcher going into the 2024, only to see himself overshadowed by Joe Ryan (and even Bailey Ober) to start 2024. He has still produced significant results in the strikeout column, averaging more than a strikeout per inning through the first half. But managers who currently own him can vouch for the fact that he has been a nightmare for ratios many times this year.

With a 5.11 ERA, it may even be tempting to sit Lopez against stronger lineups. However, his peripheral statistics are arguably the best example of "buy low" that is out there right now. A 3.83 FIP and 3.21 xFIP better showcase the "true" Lopez. Even if he were to end the season closer to that FIP, that would take a strong second-half ERA somewhere between 3.00-3.50. There is minimal reason to expect otherwise at this point.

As to why the first half was not what managers expected, there are some differences from last year. The main one seems to be the quality and launch angle of contact. In 2024, Lopez is sporting an 8.4% Barrel%, up from 6.3% in 2023. Along with this, his FB% has increased from 36.3% to 40.0%. A large discrepancy between xFIP and FIP often points to HR as a problem, and the other statistics mentioned here fit with that as well.

Interestingly, Statcast heat maps show that only his changeup is staying slightly higher in the zone in 2024 than in 2023, while his fastball and sleeper heat maps are relatively similar from 2023 to 2024. Paradoxically, the launch angle on his changeup is down, but up for those other two pitches. If there was a clearer underlying problem to explain the launch angle and fly balls, there may be more cause for concern. As it stands, managers should actively be making offers for Lopez to enjoy his strong second half.

Kevin Gausman - Toronto Blue Jays

How do we know he's got gas? (shout out to all my Dumb & Dumber fans). The Gasman has been a major disappointment this year. Despite logging a solid 104 IP to this point, he is ranked 472 in standard Yahoo leagues against a preseason projection of 34. That is hard to stomach, and managers are more likely to be selling Gausman than Cole (see below). One could argue that Gausman is the "easiest" target on this list, but is he worth it?

The answer, based on peripheral statistics, is a resounding "yes." His ERA currently sits at an ugly 4.50, but his 3.88 FIP and 3.71 xFIP suggest improvement in the months to come. While those numbers in isolation are mediocre, to achieve them after the first half he has had, he will need to pitch to an ERA around 3.00-3.25 in the second half, which would be a strong contribution for any fantasy pitching staff.

The strikeouts have also been down this year. Gausman holds exactly one K/IP so far in 2024, with 104 Ks across 104 IP. In 2023, he posted 237 K in 185 IP. The drop-off is most likely explained by his splitter. In 2023 his splitter held a 43.2% Whiff% and 23.8% PutAway%. In 2024 that same pitch is showing a 33.0% Whiff% and 16.3% PutAway%. As with Lopez above, is there something under the hood that suggests this pitch is "off" this year?

His splitter velocity sits at 85.7mph which was 86.3mph on average in 2023. This is well within the standard deviation of these measurements, so do not consider this a velocity drop. The Spin score for his splitter is 1799 this season, nearly identical to 2023 when it was 1787. The heat maps are nearly identical, spending time either at the bottom of the zone or well below it. It seems likely his splitter is similar to what it always has been, and a return to form (or at least close to it) should follow. Gausman can be bought for pennies on the dollar. Try moving an above-average hitter for him and see if you can haggle out a bargain trade for a likely SP2 through the remainder of the season.

Gerrit Cole - New York Yankees

Boy howdy has this been a tough use of a roster spot (even an IL spot) for managers so far in 2024. After being shut down in spring training with elbow nerve inflammation and edema (swelling), Cole made his return on June 19 with mixed results since then.

Cole has made five starts since his return. Except for one four-inning, no-strikeout outing against the Mets, Cole has been putting up decent strikeout numbers, including eight against the Red Sox and seven against a strong Orioles lineup. He held that same lethal Orioles lineup to just one ER in his last start. He caught the Grimace Mets towards the end of June, inflating his ERA, but outside of that, he has been solid and consistently improving since his return.

A critical place to look when a pitcher has a throwing arm injury is velocity. In his limited time back in 2024, Cole's four-seam fastball is averaging 95.9mph, just slightly down from 96.7 MPH in 2023. As he continues to ramp back up, and now with some extra rest from the break, it seems likely that Cole can maintain his velocity compared to prior years. Keeping an eye on this will be key though.

With such a limited sample size, it is a bit difficult to assess Cole's peripheral statistics such as FIP and xFIP. Time will tell in terms of how these level out, but for now, managers can target Cole knowing that his velocity is there and he has improved with pretty much every start since his return. If the Yankees can turn it on, he will add some wins, but even without that, the strikeout and ratio upsides are there. Send some offers now, perhaps an OF2 plus or minus a middling closer, and see if you can pry Cole from his current manager's hands.

Spencer Schwellenbach - Atlanta Braves

For deeper leagues, take a look at what Schwellenbach has quietly been doing for a Braves team that has been overshadowed by injuries and the Phillies in the NL East. Many things in Schwellenbach's favor are not necessarily "metrics" that deserve attention. He plays in a strong farm system that has a reputation for identifying and developing strong young arms. He was a second-round draft pick out of Nebraska in 2021 and is just 24 years old. If anything, he seems likely to continue trending upward from his already solid start to 2024.

Admittedly, the sample size is small with 44.2 IP in 2024. There is also the chance of a demotion at some point for load management. Regardless, at just 30% owned in Yahoo leagues, he can be a true diamond in the rough just waiting to be found. He has a nice, six-pitch repertoire and leads with a 96+ mph four-seam fastball, complimented by a 92 mph cutter. He mixes in a slider, curveball, splitter, and sinker to fool hitters with similar release points but various combinations of movement and speed.

He holds a modest 21.9% K% in 2024 but flashed potential for brilliance in double-A this year before his call-up. In his short time in the minors this year, he was holding an eye-popping 38.6% K%. He is also fairly reliable in limiting self-inflicted damage with a useful 5.3% BB% so far in 2024. There is certainly a strikeout upside there, and it is nicely coupled with a relatively low potential for walks.

Ratios can be a bit volatile on 44 2/3 IP of sample size, but for what it is worth, Schwellenbach's current 4.43 sits with a 3.44 FIP and 3.87 xFIP. If he can approach that FIP playing for a Braves team that can still produce wins despite injuries, Schwellenbach can be an SP3 for the remainder of 2024. He is an easy scoop if available in 12-team leagues, and those in shallower leagues should be auditioning him in good streaming matchups with the potential to hold him for the remainder of the year.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Jonathan India

Leaves With Apparent Shoulder Injury
Evan Carter

Leaves Early With Wrist Soreness
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF