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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 3 of 2024. His RB lineups advice for Week 3 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Injuries did not spare the running back position in Week 2. On top of losing Christian McCaffrey for at least four weeks, we also saw Joe Mixon go down with an ankle injury, and Isiah Pacheco ended up getting folded up like an accordion and having his right leg bent in a way it was never intended to bend, resulting in a fractured fibula.
On the plus side, the running back position is in a more stable predicament than the wide receiver position entering week 3, with fewer big names expecting to be sidelined this week.
Last week we nailed starts for Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, and J.K. Dobbins. You likely had a successful week if you started any of those backs the previous week. However, that is in the past, and we are moving forward with this week's starts, and sits at the running back position.
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Week 3 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jordan Mason - RB, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Mason is a must-start each week while McCaffrey remains out of the lineup and should be viewed as a low-end RB1 with upside.
In the two weeks Mason was handed the keys to the 49ers' run game, he ran for 247 yards on 48 attempts, which worked out to 5.1 yards per attempt. While he's been a non-factor in the passing game, he still averages 19.8 fantasy points per game.
Mr. Jordan Mason, ladies and gentleman
: #SFvsMIN on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/3Siu49Kcnm— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Production like that must be prioritized. With back-to-back 100-yard games that resulted in a pair of rushing scores, Mason will line up across from a Los Angeles Rams defensive front that looks very different without Aaron Donald anchoring it.
In two games this season, the Rams are among the top five teams in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Back in week 1, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 131 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores.
Last week, James Conner was a ball of hate, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, finishing with 122 yards on the ground and a touchdown of his own. That bolds well for Mason this week, who sits second in the NFL with those 247 rushing yards.
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Things are taking a turn for the worst in Miami, as Tua Tagovailoa was lost indefinitely, and the Dolphins had to turn to backup Skyler Thompson to close out week 2. Then, this week, they signed Tyler Huntley off the Baltimore Ravens Practice squad.
However, just because the Dolphins can't pass doesn't mean they can't run the ball. Against the Bills last week, Achane was the Dolphins' offense, running for 96 yards on 22 carries while adding 69 yards on seven receptions and leading the team in both categories.
De'Von Achane high points the ball after running a Wheel route thru the B-gap
Not many RBs can make that look as fluid as Achane did pic.twitter.com/Iu40nMW1uM
— Cole Topham (@crtopham_) September 13, 2024
Through two weeks, Achane is averaging 29 opportunities per game. After a solid defensive performance against the Denver Broncos in week 1, the Seattle Seahawks looked more like the Seahawks from 2023, when they allowed Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to combine for 177 on 33 carries.
Numbers matter, and they suggest that Achane will find the endzone again this week, as he has 13 career touchdowns in 13 career contests. For Achane, it was never about the talent and simply just about the pure volume he would receive.
Zamir White - RB, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
It's time to wish this into existence. If White cannot produce against the lowly Carolina Panther's run defense, then it may be time to cut ties with the Raiders back.
While the Chargers and Ravens are excellent defenses, the same cannot be said about the Carolina Panthers, who are allowing 199.5 rushing yards per game in 2024 after allowing the second most on a per-game basis in 2023.
Matchups like this are what we call a get-right game. While White has averaged just 3.1, the Panthers allow 4.9 yards to opponents per attempt. If you look at the rushing opportunities, White has 22 attempts on the ground to Alexander Mattison's 9.
Expectations this week are that the Raiders will be playing with a positive game script which should lead to more opportunities to get White and this rushing attack back on track after finishing the 2023 season as one of the more efficient run games over the final weeks.
#Raiders Week 2 RB Usage
- Zamir White: 65% snaps, 9 carries, 22 routes, 4 targets (38 yds)
- Alexander Mattison: 22% snaps, 4 carries, no targetsSitting White this week was the right call - but next week he gets the Panthers
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 15, 2024
Week 3 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
J.K. Dobbins - RB, Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Raise your hand if you had Dobbins as the leading rusher entering week 3 of the NFL season. Now, put them down because you aren't fooling anyone.
Let's give credit where credit is due. What Dobbins has accomplished since returning is unprecedented. Then again, Cam Akers, then with the Rams, averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his return post Achilles before fading from fantasy, as well as James Robinson with the Jaguars before that.
Should we fear a similar fate for Dobbins? This author is no doctor, but eventually, something has to give, and it's hard to believe Dobbins can sustain this kind of workload moving forward. This week, there will be an actual test against the Steelers defense.
T.J. Watt is a game wrecker, and with Justin Herbert less than 100%, the Chargers may find themselves becoming predictable. That's not a good thing, as the Steelers' defense allows just 3.7 yards per attempt and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans
Minnesota's backfield is starting to look like a 50-50 split between Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler. After 14 carries and 94 yards against the Giants back in week 1, the carries in Week 2 were also split, with Chandler out-producing Jones by 50 yards.
With the backfield split, it will take a lot of work to trust Jones each week, especially when faced with a difficult matchup. Such is the case this week against the Houston Texans, who have allowed the 7th fewest rushing yards per game thus far.
Sam Darnold has a history of seeing ghosts, and if we know that, so do the Texans. This means if you thought Caleb Williams was under pressure last week, wait until you see what they will have dialed up for Darnold. This game could get ugly quickly.
The Texans defense blitzed Caleb Williams on 41.7% of his dropbacks (20 times), the unit's highest blitz rate in a game under DeMeco Ryans.
The Texans generated 12 pressures and 5 sacks when blitzing, with nine defenders finishing with multiple pressures.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/xCsAUKKniq
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 16, 2024
Devin Singletary - RB, New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
If it weren't for bad luck, the Giants would have no luck at all. Last week, the Giants became the second team in NFL history to score three touchdowns without surrendering any and still finding a way to lose the game. Only the 1989 Rams accomplished this feat in a loss to the Vikings.
However, one positive note from last week's contests was Devin Singletary, who churned out 95 yards on 16 carries against the Washington Commanders. However, it's difficult to foresee a repeat performance here in week 3.
Why the difficulty in repeating? The Cleveland Browns are among the best in terms of overall team defense. Last week, the Browns allowed Travis Etienne to score, but they did limit the Jaguar back to just 52 rushing after yielding just 40 yards to Ezekiel Elliott the previous week.
This is another game that could see the back featured in a negative game script, and in all likelihood, you probably have some better options.
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