X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Reality Check: Why Your RB Sleepers Won't Wake Up

Pierre Camus challenges fantasy football owners to face reality when it comes to their favorite preseason ADP sleepers that could actually turn out to be busts in 2019.

"Embrace reality, even if it burns you." - Pierre Berge

This quote is ironic for a couple of reasons. First of all, this is a column about fantasy sports. Fantasy - the very definition reads, "the power or process of creating especially unrealistic or improbable mental images in response to psychological need." An escape from reality. That's what we want, isn't it? So why ruin it with a big dose of reality? Because the reality of winning is a lot better than losing. It's also ironic that the man who said this quote spent years trying to suppress a documentary about his life but that's neither here nor there... The point is that we can't let our cognitive biases get the best of us if they blind us to what's truly important.

Perhaps the most poignant quote in this vein came from the great philosopher, Terrell Owens. "Align your expectations with reality and you will never be disappointed." With that, I urge you to lower the bar a few rungs because I'm about to make sure you check yourself before you wreck yourself because some of these takes could be bad for your health. Oh, and I'm not coming real stealth, so be prepared.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Devin Singletary Isn't an RB1

This goes for both fantasy and reality. Guess who the real starter is in Buffalo? That's right, none other than Frank "The Highlander" Gore. Despite Kenyan Drake averaging 5.0 yards per carry and showing great hands as a receiver over his first two seasons, Gore still outrushed him by approximately four carries and 18 yards per game in 2018. That was low for Gore, who had averaged at least 16 rush attempts per game for the past 12 seasons in a row!

I doubt Gore will go much higher than the 10-carry mark in terms of rush attempts this year but let's assume he stays in that range. T.J. Yeldon will also take a few carries away in addition to his work on passing downs. His low mark was 4.9 A/G in 2017 with the Jags. How much is left for Singletary? The Bills averaged 29.25 rushes per game last year. If you follow my complex equation above, 29-10-5=14. That means 14 carries a game for Singletary. He averaged 5.2 Y/A playing in Conference USA last year, so it's safe to assume a small drop-off. If he does well enough to stay at 4.5 Y/A, that would mean 63 rushing yards per game, good for a total of 1,008 for the season.

That's not bad... if you drafted him in the eighth round or later. It's not good if you spent a fifth-rounder on him after the Shady trade and got carried away. The fact is that guys like Phillip Lindsay and Jordan Howard have already proven they can put up better numbers, guys like Derrius Guice and Matt Breida are more talented, and guys like Austin Ekeler and Latavius Murray are in better situations. I'm not buying Singletary as anything more than a Flex play or low-end RB2 in a 14+ team league.

 

Dare Ogunbowale is not the starter in Tampa

Read the following tweet closely...


Yes, Dare Ogunbowale will have a big role on the Bucs this year. On special teams.

Sure, he'll play on third downs, maybe even see a few goal-line carries and rumble in for the occasional score, but if you think that is enough to make him fantasy-relevant, you are either in one of those really deep 32-team leagues or you drafted very, very poorly.

Not convinced? How about this...


Impressive? Yes. Inspiring that a breakout season is about to happen? I don't think so. You can love his story, love his name, love his hair, love his sister but don't love his fantasy value.

Look, I hate Tampa's backfield situation as much as anyone but not enough to convince myself that there is a special teams player who has struggled to stay in the league that can leapfrog Peyton Barber just from showing up. Ronald Jones II, I'm not worried about, but Barber is still the RB to own in Tampa, sadly.

 

Houston's Backfield Belongs to... Nobody

Duke Johnson's days as a top-20 fantasy running back value lasted all of three weeks. The Texans cut their undrafted free agents Karan Higdon and Damarea Crockett in order to sign Carlos Hyde. While I'm not the biggest Hyde fan and realize he has limitations, he wasn't brought in just to watch Duke take every snap. Hyde will get the early-down work while Johnson plays on third down and obvious passing situations.

Some fantasy owners just won't accept this. His ADP in the past week is still in the early fifth round, above Phillip Lindsay, Austin Ekeler, and Derrius Guice! Johnson was never going to be a workhorse back regardless of circumstances. He's not even sure if he would have been capable of doing so. “I’ve always been ready (to be an every down back), especially mentally. Physically, I guess we’ll find out,” Johnson Jr. told reporters on Thursday. No, we won't.

He struggled with injuries (and fumbles) throughout his illustrious college career and has managed to stay fresh in the NFL because of his light workload. For that reason, Johnson will play the same role he did in Cleveland early last year, when he averaged just over three carries and two catches per game, good for a 45.8 yard average. Meanwhile, Hyde averaged 19 carries per game. If anything, Hyde could get even more usage than he did in Cleveland, as Houston runs the ball more frequently.

With this comes some good news: Deshaun Watson and his WR fam should feast this year. In 2018, Houston ran the eighth-fewest passing plays (537) and had the fifth-highest rushing play total (468). If Watson could put up nearly 4,200 yards and 26 TD with that split, imagine if he gets to throw the ball 35-40 times per game as opposed to just 31.6? With an iffy backfield, a lesser defense thanks to the loss of Jadveon Clowney, and a better receiving corps, Watson is a solid top-five QB and all four wideouts could have weekly value, if they manage to actually stay healthy simultaneously.

 

Rashaad Penny Is Not and Will Never Be a Thing

I'm not sure if he qualifies as a sleeper based on the hype he's received the past two draft seasons but given the fact he's never actually produced, he must be considered one. Penny was an eighth-round pick this year, coming off the heels of a rookie campaign in which he averaged 4.93 yards per carry. The problem is he only carried the ball 85 times because Chris Carson was the better runner, as was Mike Davis most of the time. If you pull out the old "take away his best game" trick, Penny's average drops dramatically down to 4.26 yards per carry.

He did show signs of life late in the year but is it enough to think he'll somehow earn a bigger role? Based on what we've seen and heard this preseason, not at all. I don't care how much you think preseason doesn't matter, you can't ignore the fact Penny looked terrible and barely made it past the line of scrimmage most of the time. He carried a total of 20 times for 35 yards, good (bad) for 1.8 Y/A. Chris Carson had no such trouble, averaging six yards a pop. Sure, small sample size, but isn't this just a carryover from what we saw most of last year?

NextGen Stats confirm my take too. Penny spent the third-most time behind the line of scrimmage after hand-off, behind only Carlos Hyde and Tarik Cohen. Any trouble he might have finding holes is inexcusable considering he saw the fifth-lowest amount of stacked boxes (8+ defenders) at 10.59%. By contrast, Carson's rate was double that at 21.86%, yet his rushing average was almost as high despite a much bigger workload in tougher circumstances. Just to drive the final nail in the coffin, Penny saw just nine red zone rushes all last season while Davis took 21 and Carson 41.

Ultimately, Penny will get more opportunities since Mike Davis is gone and the Seahawks will want to prove they didn't waste a first-round pick to acquire a running back they didn't need. More touches will result in slightly higher production but I'm not holding my breath for a second expecting him to break out. That's why instead of fading Carson like others have, I doubled down on him this year and advise you to do the same.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF