NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 17) - Targets and Avoids

December 30, 2022

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Does anyone in the AFC want to claim a playoff spot? Nearly all teams in the hunt lost this weekend. The Chargers took care of business though by beating the Colts and clinching a playoff berth. But the Jets started the week off losing to the Jaguars, followed by the Patriots, Titans, and Dolphins losing. The Steelers played the Raiders so something had to give. It was a similar story in the NFC with the Giants, Commanders, Seahawks, and Lions all going down. With all those losses, it means the last two weeks will be chaotic. Just remember; there's a reason why teams in must-win situations are in that position, to begin with. Because they weren't good enough to win the games up to this point.

Week 17 begins with the Cowboys traveling to Tennessee to face the Titans on Thursday night. The week ends with the final Monday Night Football game of the year; Bills at the red-hot Bengals.

You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all. 

NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 17

Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Chiefs -13.5 vs. Broncos, Cowboys -10.5 at Titans, Eagles -7 vs. Saints.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.

My best bets are at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 17

Cowboys -10.5 at Titans

Tennessee reportedly may bench some starters as this game is meaningless. Their game next week against the Jaguars is for the division title with the loser eliminated.

The Titans have lost five straight since a Thursday night win in Green Bay. In that span, they've averaged 15.2 points per game. Malik Willis has started three games and has not broken 100 passing yards with zero touchdowns to three interceptions. And if you're wondering how Willis has fared using his feet in those three starts; 16 carries for 91 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Dallas still has a chance to win the division so this will be lopsided.

Cowboys 31 - Titans 10

Chiefs -13.5 vs. Broncos

Kansas City comes into this one as winners of three in a row, but they trail the Bills for the No. 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head loss. The Chiefs finally covered as a big favorite last week, winning 24-10.

Usually, when a team fires its head coach, the players get together and want to win one for the interim coach. But the Broncos' season has been such a disaster. The defense finally had a bad game and it was brutal. Two touchdowns are a lot to cover, but how many touchdown drives can Russell Wilson lead them on?

Chiefs 34 - Broncos 14

Commanders -2.5 vs. Browns

Carson Wentz or Taylor Heinicke. It should not matter who's under center with all the talent Washington has. Brian Robinson Jr. got 22 carries on Saturday, only running for 58 yards against the stout 49ers defense. But he gets to face a Browns rush defense allowing the fourth-most yards in the last three, 162. Cleveland could not stop the Saints' rushing attack in the second half despite knowing Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill would not be throwing the ball in the bone-chilling cold. Now, they'll have to deal with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson on top of Brian Robinson.

Deshaun Watson has not looked good in the four games he's started, completing 57.7 percent of passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Washington has an above-average defense so he should be contained again.

Commanders 27 - Browns 17

Giants -5.5 vs. Colts

This line opened at 3.5 but juicily went to 5.5 after the Colts' showing on Monday night. Nick Foles did not want to get hit and just chucked it up. He threw three interceptions but there could have been more. They have quit.

The Giants are a fundamental football team who don't beat themselves. A win for them all but secures a playoff spot.

Giants 27 - Colts 10

49ers -6 at Raiders

Derek Carr may not be playing in this one and Jarrett Stidham would then get the start. He'd face a Niners team that has won eight in a row by an average of 16.6 points per game. They've done it with Jimmy Garoppolo and now with Brock Purdy. They are so talented it doesn't seem to matter who's under center.

Las Vegas lost a game they had no business losing Saturday night, which decimated their slim playoff hopes. Carr threw three second-half interceptions, Josh Jacobs only got 15 carries, and the defense allowed a 10-play, 76-yard touchdown drive in the last two minutes.

The only way San Francisco loses is if they beat themselves.

49ers 31 - Raiders 14

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 17 

Lions -6 vs. Bears

Detroit was just exposed by the Panthers' rushing attack. Chicago has a much more potent attack with Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert. There will be no weather issues since the game is in a dome, and Fields will be able to throw the ball. The over/under is 52. This will be a shootout and this could come down to the last drive.

Bears 33 - Lions 31

Eagles -7 vs. Saints

It's unclear if Jalen Hurts will play. Gardner Minshew looked really good Saturday and nearly got them a win. But the loss came with a major loss; left tackle Lane Johnson is now out for multiple weeks with a torn abdominal. Will this change how Philly plays the final two games considering they only need to win one of their last two? The Eagles can beat the Saints with Minshew and their defense. Still, the injuries are concerning.

Eagles 24 - Saints 19

Jaguars -4 at Texans

If the Titans are benching their starters, will Jacksonville too? The slight possibility of it makes this an avoid.

NFL Best Bets for Week 17

• Commanders -2.5 vs. Browns - If Washington runs the ball, they'll win comfortably.
• Patriots -2 vs. Dolphins - Miami has lost four in a row and will be without Tua Tagovailoa. Teddy Bridgewater earlier in the year looked very slow. New England's offense has been terrible, but the defense has gotten 11 sacks in the last three games.
• Cowboys -10.5 at Titans - If Tennessee rests Derrick Henry, this will be a rout.

Running Totals

• Last Week: 1-2
• 2022 season: 24-21-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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