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Kipp's expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 6's Thursday Night Football (TNF) game between the Buccaneers and Eagles. Use his MKF fantasy football prop picks to win.
Welcome to the Week 6 of Thursday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles! Thursday Night Football means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in tonight's game, so let's get to the picks!
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Bucs @ Eagles More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Tom Brady less than 300.5 passing yards and Jalen Hurts more than 280.5 passing yards
Tom Brady is more than capable of throwing for over this total as he has done it in three of the first five games this season, but this is a matchup where he may not have to. The Bucs enter this game as a 6.5-point favorite against an Eagles' defense that serves as a run funnel. They are currently allowing running backs to rush for nearly 124 yards per game over the previous four weeks, which is ranked third-worst in the league. They have also been strong against the pass as they are allowing just 220.5 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks to quarterbacks, which ranks sixth-best in the league. All of this tells me that this game is likely a Leonard Fournette game in which the Buccaneers run a bit more than usual and salt the clock away at the end of the game.
In order for the Eagles to be competitive and try to win this game, Jalen Hurts is going to have to put up a solid stat line and this is possible given the fact that the Bucs have allowed an average of over 298 passing yards per game to the quarterback position across the previous four weeks. Hurts has averaged 41 pass attempts per game over the previous three weeks, so the volume is certainly there. He has also gone over this total in two of his last games, both of which came against high-powered offenses (similar to the Bucs) against the Chiefs and Cowboys. This one sets up very similarly and he certainly has a shot to throw for over 300 yards.
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Buccaneers @ Eagles Reception Collection Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Reagor combine for more than 18.5 receptions
While the Eagles have been solid against the pass as noted by the fact they have allowed an average of just 138.5 yards to wideouts over the previous four weeks, they have struggled against slot receivers as they are giving up nearly 17 fantasy points per game. Godwin has seen a solid target share as he has 41 targets through five games and has also hauled in six or more receptions in three of those games. Brady should look his way against a tough Eagles pass defense and continue to take advantage of a defense that has proven struggles against the slot.
It is no secret that the Bucs have struggled against wide receivers. They have allowed an average of nearly 180 receiving yards to the position over the previous four weeks, which is ranked in the bottom 10 of the league. Smith has been a favorite target of quarterback, Jalen Hurts, as he has seen seven or more targets in all but one game this season and has also seen double-digit targets in two games this season. He has managed to go over this total in three games this season and has a solid chance this week as the Eagles enter the game as underdogs.
Jalen Reagor should also be in a solid spot in this game as he is the second leading target earner in Phildadelphia as he has seen 25 targets while hauling in 17 of them and earning a 73% snap share on the season. He will likely be covered by Richard Sherman who has allowed over 11 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and is certainly not the same cornerback he has been in the past. Look for the Eagles to deploy a more pass-heavy offense in this one as well because the Bucs are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs over the previous four weeks by allowing just 37.75 yards per game.
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