MMA DFS Value Picks - UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

MMA DFS DraftKings value picks for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier. Alen Kurbasic goes over undervalued fighters for daily fantasy UFC lineups (premium content).

Fight fans, and fantasy MMA enthusiasts, welcome to the build-up for one of the most anticipated events of the year thus far: UFC 302. It seems like a pretty long time since there's been a quality card that both hardcore and casual UFC fans have been looking forward to, even though UFC 300 was only 46 days ago. After two failed bids at an undisputed championship, Dustin Poirier will challenge Islam Makhachev for the UFC lightweight championship.

UFC returns to Prudential Centar after setting the venue's live sporting event gate record in 2023 with UFC 288. UFC 302 will mark the tenth UFC event at the arena. The lightweight title will be on the line in Newark, New Jersey, this Saturday night. Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will try to defend his UFC belt in the main event against former interim champion Dustin Poirier. As if that's not enough, former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland and former title challenger Paulo Costa meet in a five-round co-main event.  Let's get things going and address some of the best plays present in DK.

In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier 06/01/24. Give me a follow on Twitter @sumpor5. Good luck!

MMA DFS Value Picks - Sean Strickland - $8800

Two of the promotion's most outspoken personalities, Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa are scheduled for a co-main event fight with a title shot not that far away, even though both fighters are coming off a loss. This bout promises to be a thrilling clash of styles, with both fighters known for their striking and relentless pressure. Let’s delve into what makes this matchup a must-see event.

In his last fight, Strickland lost by a controversial split decision to now champion, Dricus Du Plessis while Costa lost to Robert Whittaker in an epic three-round war. Against Du Plessis, Strickland didn't look great but still could have won. His jab was effective, as usual, but he got taken down six times. The winner of this five-round co-main event likely won't secure a title shot, but they should be within sight. 

Strickland is a well-rounded fighter with strong striking and solid grappling skills. He often uses a high-volume striking approach, aiming to outpoint his opponents, while Costa is considered a power puncher. Strickland has been on a good run with notable victories. His conditioning is usually exceptional, allowing him to maintain a high pace throughout the fight. Since moving up to middleweight, Strickland has fought 11 times, only suffering defeat to UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, Jared Cannonier and UFC middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis.

Now, when talking about Costa, he had a lot of success in his last fight and almost knocked Whittaker out. Unfortunately for him, he didn't do enough in the eyes of the judges, so he lost via unanimous decision. He went 1-3 in his last four fights, losing to Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori before his exciting three-round war and win over Luke Rockhold. Both men love to pressure and put opponents on the back foot but Strickland is almost always the aggressor while Costa has been put on his heels against fighters who have a similar pace and cardio to Strickland, for example, Vettori.

It's safe to say that DFS Point Potential for Strickland is high due to his volume striking. Strickland also tends to score well in significant strikes landed. This is a classic matchup between a volume striker in Strickland and a power puncher in Costa. If the fight goes to distance, Strickland is likely going to score higher because of his cumulative points from strikes. However, if Costa wins, to get a significant point boost, he will have to knock Strickland out.

I can see Costa winning the early rounds and landing more damage, while Strickland’s relentless pace and volume are going to give him an edge in a five-round fight, as he is likely to outwork Costa over the duration. Costa likely gets picked apart while having a few moments of success, but Strickland's durability should allow him to survive those moments and get back to his heavy-pressure approach, and it is exactly Strickland's ability to maintain high pace and avoid significant damage makes him a good DFS pick.

MMA DFS Value Picks - Jailton Almeida, $9100

Jailton Almeida has the third-highest salary among all eligible fighters this weekend. His speed and striking should be too much for the inconsistent Alexander Romanov. Almeida is a powerful wrestler known for his relentless pressure and ground control. With 19 finishes in 20 wins, Almeida has demonstrated that he is a force to be reckoned with.

It is no secret that Almeida's gameplan for this fight is going to be the same as always. He excels in taking opponents down and maintaining control. Almeida has a high finish rate, which is particularly valuable in DFS because finishes lead to more points. He is averaging over 110 DraftKings points per contest thanks to a mix of finishing ability and massive takedown upside. 

In his last fight, Almeida faced off against Curtis Blaydes, who is now set to fight for an interim UFC championship against Tom Aspinall. In the first round of his last fight, Almeida's title shot seemed inevitable, as he dominated Blaydes. In the first five minutes, he took Blaydes down nine times and was on his way to a 7-0 UFC record. Unfortunately for Almeida, Blaydes landed a devastating elbow while Almeida was attempting another takedown, dropping him. Blaydes finished Almeida shortly after with hammer fists to the side of the head. He scored 55 points in his only UFC loss.

Like Almeida, Romanov is an exceptional wrestler with a strong background in Greco-Roman wrestling, and like Almeida, Romanov is considered a finisher. His takedown defense is 75%. However, his questionable cardio and tendency to quit when faced with adversity have been notable weaknesses. He's a powerful fighter with knockout power, but his defence in stand-up exchanges can be lacking as he is open to being countered time and time again. 

Romanov is 6-2 in the UFC, going 2-2 in his last four fights. I don't see how Romanov can beat Almeida. Although powerful, his striking is not the best and he doesn't have enough of a gas tank to keep pursuing takedowns. Almeida, however, has some of the best conditioning in the heavyweight division, having gone 25 minutes with Derrick Lewis.

This fight is expected to be a grappling-heavy contest, with both fighters relying on their wrestling skills. Almeida's grappling and cardio make him a slightly more appealing pick for DFS, especially if he can avoid Romanov's early pressure and especially if he can take Romanov down. This is a chance for Almeida to get back on the path to a title shot and to prove the loss to Blaydes was a fluke. Of fighters who are competing in UFC 302, he also has one of the best inside-the-distance odds.

MMA DFS Value Picks - Roman Kopylov, $8200

In the upcoming clash between Roman Kopylov and Cesar Almeida, DFS players have an intriguing matchup to consider. Kopylov and Almeida are known for their striking ability, and I think it's safe to say that UFC fans worldwide are in for an explosive striking battle. Their fight is the last bout on the prelims.

The undefeated kickboxing star, Almeida, will look to earn his second victory in the promotion. He picked up three knockouts before earning a unanimous decision over Lucas Fernando on the Contender Series. He made his UFC debut against Dylan Budka on UFC Vegas 90 where he managed to knock Budka out in the second round, earning himself the 'Performance of the Night' bonus. For Almeida, this will be an undeniable step up in competition.

On the other hand, Kopylov is coming off a tough loss to the rising UFC prospect Anthony Hernandez earlier this year and is looking to test himself with another tough fight against Almeida. His pro MMA record is 12-3, while his UFC record is 4-3. Even though Almeida is considered to be an elite striker, Kopylov likely prefers a striker for an opponent, as he had some trouble with wrestlers. Kopylov's weaknesses are his cardio and his takedown defense, even though he's a lifelong sambo practitioner. However, Kopylov has a lot more MMA experience, which could make a difference. Although Kopylov recently lost by submission, he's working on his wrestling skills, as is evident with his move to Dagestan, Russia.

Don't be surprised if Kopylov gets overwhelmed in the striking department and if he attempts to take Almeida down but the Brazilian striker appears to be quietly competent within that realm. Inexperience in MMA and a ground game which we haven't seen just might be considered to be Almeida's weakness but we just don't know yet.

There is an inherent risk to going with this pick, mind you, and the price isn't the cheapest of the slate, but I think that Kopylov should be able to deal with Almeida. His MMA experience makes him a high-upside pick, while Almeida's aggressive striking offers value, especially if the fight stays standing. Kopylov is more experienced in the grappling department and has a significant knockout power. He has also faced high-level competition, which might also give him an edge against Almeida. Both fighters can finish the fight, making either a high-risk, high-reward pick.

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