December 31, 2016

Nathan Powell analyzes fantasy football lineup sleepers and avoids for Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season. These are boom or bust plays for DFS and seasonal leagues.

Welcome back, RotoBallers. In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust plays for Week 17 of the fantasy football season.

The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used as lineup options in deeper leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS. Let's get rolling.

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Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, Washington QB vs NYG

Through 16 weeks of the fantasy football season, Kirk Cousins sits at QB4 overall in fantasy points this season. Cousins has had a reliable floor, scoring 15 or more points in each game with 25 or more points in 5 of 15 games.

This week, Cousins faces a Giants defense that has been stout all season. They finished top 8 in fantasy points allowed at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. They allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, however Kirk Cousins did put up 22.80 fantasy points in these teams first matchup in New York. Additionally, the Giants have nothing to play for as they are locked in as the 5 seed. With a motivated Washington team that is in with a win and a Giants team that may rest starters in the 2nd half, this is a prime spot to play Cousins in DFS and week 17 seasonal leagues when finding players that are motivated are harder to find.

Verdict: Boom

Running Back

Latavius Murray, Raiders RB at DEN

Despite the drafting of Deandre Washington and the flashes shown by Jalen Richard, Latavius Murray has been the clear #1 in the Oakland backfield all season long. Murray finished the fantasy season as the RB11 overall despite missing 2 games with an injury.

In week 17, the Raiders have something to play for, even if the Patriots win at 1 PM to secure the #1 seed, the Chiefs and Raiders play at the same time, and in the event that the Raiders lose and Chiefs win, the Chiefs win the division. Latavius Murray has two main problems entering this week. First, he lost his starting quarterback Derek Carr, so the offense will likely not move the ball as well with Matt McGloin under center. Secondly, the Raiders are matched up against a Broncos defense that has shut down passing games, allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers. While they are middle of the pack allowing the 12 most fantasy points to running backs, if the Raiders are unable to move the ball effectively, Murray won't put up good numbers.

Verdict: Bust

Wide Receiver

Marvin Jones, Lions WR vs GBP

The last time that Marvin Jones faced the Packers secondary was in week 3, he went off for 38.50 fantasy points with a line of 6 catches for 205 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. At that point, it appeared that Jones had secured the #1 wide receiver role in Detroit. However, since then, Golden Tate has reclaimed that role and even Anquan Boldin took the spot as the #2 target.

Since his week 3 explosion, Marvin Jones hasn’t surpassed 15 PPR points and has only eclipsed 10 PPR points once since week 8. In week 17, Boldin is out with an injury which opens up the opportunity for Jones to reclaim his early season role in the offense, particularly against a defense that didn't have an answer for him in their first matchup.

Verdict: Boom

Tight End

Antonio Gates, Chargers TE vs KC

Often times throughout the season, record chasing and narrative street type analysis can lead you astray because more often than not it doesn't have any real impact on the game. However, with Antonio Gates, he is possibly playing his final game, in what is likely the final home game for the Chargers in San Diego and Gates in 1 touchdown shy of tying Tony Gonzalez career record of 111 receiving touchdowns.

The Chargers have long been eliminated from the playoffs, so it wouldn't surprise me if they make Sunday being the “Antonio Gates show” as much as possible. Rivers will likely force the ball as much as possible to Gates, especially in the red zone. Kansas City allows the 3rd fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but I’m not sure that matters with the number of targets that Gates is likely to see.

Verdict: Boom

Hail Mary of the Week

In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire or at the end of benches in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:

Terrance Williams, Cowboys WR at PHI

The Dallas Cowboys are one of the few playoff teams this weekend with nothing to play for as they already have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up. The Cowboys say they have no plans of resting starters in week 17, but if there is one player on their offense who may see some rest time, it is Dez Bryant. Bryant has missed games in each of the last two seasons and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bryant on the bench at halftime to ensure that he enters the playoffs healthy,

With Bryant on the bench, Terrance Williams becomes an intriguing option as he becomes the deep threat and likely #1 wide receiver in the offense. Cole Beasley may see a higher target volume, but the deep passes and red zone pssses will likely be replaced by Williams. Additionally, the Eagles have been one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers.