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As the 2023 NFL concluded in Kansas City, Missouri the ripple effects from the selections could be felt all across the fantasy football landscape. The Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans all have eventual new franchise quarterbacks and things will look a lot different in the AFC South this season. As many of you prepare for your dynasty rookie drafts and begin drafting in best ball formats on sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog you'll want to know what the draft means for expected fantasy production.
Right before Round 1 kicked off Thursday, we saw the Baltimore Ravens sign quarterback Lamar Jackson to a contract extension and the collective football world finally exhaled. The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets finally worked out a trade package for Aaron Rodgers and the future Hall of Famer will be playing elsewhere this season. Running Back D'Andre Swift was also dealt from the Detroit Lions to the Philadelphia Eagles on Day 3 of the draft and Philadelphia has now officially become Georgia North.
Below are several players who left NFL Draft Weekend as big winners and some who unfortunately will likely see a dip in their expected fantasy production for the upcoming season based on what their team did in the draft. Now let's dive into the list, shall we?
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Fantasy Football Winners - NFL Draft
Lamar Jackson, QB - Baltimore Ravens
No one had a better weekend than Lamar did. He finally got his much-anticipated contract extension done with the Ravens to remain in Baltimore for the near future and the team drafted Boston College WR Zay Flowers in Round 1. When you factor in that the Ravens already signed Odell Beckham Jr. and brought in Todd Monken from the Georgia Bulldogs to be their new offensive coordinator, it is wheels up for Lamar!
Flowers fills a big need for the Ravens out of the slot where he can work the middle of the field. He is also good at breaking off of his routes and coming back to the ball, an important skill that is needed when Lamar uses his legs to extend a play. It's hard not to be excited for the Ravens' offense this year when you add in a healthy RB in J.K. Dobbins, LT Ronnie Staley, and the uber-talented Mark Andrews at Tight End. This offense will be electric and the fact that Baltimore is going to evolve their passing game should be better for Jackson's continued development as a passer as well for his fantasy production.
Tony Pollard, RB - Dallas Cowboys
For now, the backfield in Dallas appears to be all Pollard's. Veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott was recently released and the Cowboys drafted RB Deuce Vaughn in Round 6 from Kansas State. Deuce is a well-rounded playmaker who could carve out a niche role in the Dallas offense, but all signs point to a heavy dose of Tony Pollard for the upcoming season. The only major concern is Pollard's health and readiness for Week 1 after suffering a fractured fibula against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.
Pollard was largely a fantasy steal last season after rushing for over 1,000 yards with 12 total TDs. He is a dynamic receiver out of the backfield who should see more of the goal-line work as long as Elliott doesn't return. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has been running less in recent years, which has created more opportunities for someone like Pollard to get more receiving work underneath. Dallas' offense should be high-powered again in 2023 and new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is known for pounding the rock.
Garrett Wilson, WR - New York Jets
After seeing his production fluctuate last season while being supported by inconsistent QB play, Garrett Wilson will likely be rescued by Aaron Rodgers after he was traded from Green Bay to be the Jets' new QB for 2023. In his 8 games with Zach Wilson last season, Garrett Wilson had 34 receptions for 447 yards and 0 TDs. In the 9 games with Mike White and Joe Flacco, Wilson had 49 receptions for 656 yards and 4 TDs. His footwork, ball skills, and hands are nearly flawless. Wilson is a fluid route technician and very difficult to cover 1-on-1.
While Rodgers will bring over one of his favorite targets: Allen Lazard from the Packers, Wilson likely won't have a difficult time earning targets. It has been said that Rodgers can be very demanding and difficult to work with at times, but Wilson knows the game so well it's tough to imagine a world where his production is worse in 2023 than it was in 2022 with Zach Wilson. Last season feels like his absolute floor.
Juwan Johnson, TE - New Orleans Saints
A potential sneaky later-round tight end in 2023, Johnson got a big boost when the Saints signed Quarterback Derek Carr and fellow tight end Adam Trautman was recently traded to the Denver Broncos. The TE position is one where there is a steep learning curve and in fantasy, we must temper our expectations to understand that it may take 3-4 years for players to finally have a breakout. Browns TE David Njoku is a prime example of this.
Johnson recently signed a 2-year / $12 million contract with the Saints through 2024 so the team is invested. They also did not draft another tight end during draft weekend and the offense doesn't have any other established pass catchers outside of WR Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara, who may be facing a multiple-game suspension for the 2023 season due to an assault case. Given what Derek Carr did with Darren Waller just a few years back it's not out of the question to think he could replicate something similar with Johnson.
Geno Smith, QB - Seattle Seahawks
This new Seattle offense, man oh man. In Round 1, the Seahawks added Ohio State Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and then followed that up with UCLA Running Back Zach Charbonnet in Round 2. After that, they added some solid depth pieces along the offensive line. The biggest winner in all of this is Geno Smith and the two above WRs along with Tyler Lockett give the Seahawks the best trio of WRs in the league.
Smith-Njigba is a shifty, slot-type of WR who is the perfect complement to D.K. Metcalf on the outside. Their games and skill sets couldn't be any more different, but they will complement each other perfectly. JSN will give Smith a security blanket underneath to throw to. Seattle also didn't draft a quarterback at any point in the draft. This job is currently Geno's and Geno's alone.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB - New England Patriots
You know that old adage: never trust Bill Belichick with a Patriots running back, but that narrative may be changing with time. Rhamondre had a very successful 2022 season with 210 carries for 1,040 yards and 5 TDs to along with 69 receptions for 421 yards and 1 TD. New England's offense was pretty much a disaster last season after having Matt Patricia and Joe Judge involved in the offense, but now Bill O'Brien returns to the Patriots from Alabama to be their offensive coordinator for 2023. RB Damien Harris departed this offseason for Buffalo and the Pats didn't draft a running back on draft weekend. Rhamondre would very well be in for a big year without much competition on the depth chart.
Fantasy Football Losers - NFL Draft
Ryan Tannehill, QB - Tennessee Titans
The Titans still have arguably the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL at this juncture and drafted Kentucky Quarterback Will Levis with the second pick in Round 2 of the draft. This likely means that the organization will turn the page in the near future and move on from Tannehill. There is a chance however that he could be moved from Tennesee and reunited with his old offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who is the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. This one will be interesting to see how it plays out, but for now, it's hard to have a lot of faith in the Titans' offense for 2023.
Tyler Allgeier, RB - Atlanta Falcons
Allgeier was one of my favorite rookie sleepers in the draft last year and he proved himself worthy after rushing for over 1,000 yards in the Atlanta offense. Unfortunately, his fantasy value was torpedoed on the opening night of the draft when the Falcons drafted RB Bijan Robinson from Texas with the No. 8 overall pick. While there is still a chance that Allgeier could see some goal-line work in a likely much-improved offense, it is hard to see him having league-winning upside in fantasy with Robinson there.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR - Cleveland Browns
During the offseason, it wasn't hard to envision a scenario where DPJ would become QB Deshaun Watson's No. 2 option in the Cleveland offense in 2023, but then the team made a deal with the New York Jets for WR Elijah Moore and they drafted WR Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee in Round 3 of the weekend's draft, which greatly muddies up the water of the wide receiving corps. Tillman is an outside WR who can stretch the field in some of the similar ways that DPJ can. Maybe there is a way he can still fend off both of the other WRs to be a viable threat in 2023, but for now, that is a very crowded wide receiver room in Cleveland.
K.J. Osborn, WR - Minnesota Vikings
Some had Osborn pegged as a sleeper for 2023 in the Vikings' offense. Minnesota didn't have a lot of draft capital or much depth at the wide receiver position until they drafted USC Wide Receiver Jordan Addison with the 23rd overall pick. Osborn had a couple of big games at the end of the 2022 season after finishing with 60 receptions for 650 yards and 5 TDs. As of now he is at best the fourth receiving option for the Vikings.
Final Thoughts
We will likely hit the second wave of free agency in the coming weeks and a few more trades may go down now that the NFL Draft is over and teams feel better or worse about the state of their depth charts. Running backs Kareen Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Ezekiel Elliott could all sign somewhere soon, which could rain on the parade of a running back we have pegged for a larger role this fall.
The NFL's schedule release should come in the next two weeks and after that NFL Training Camps will soon begin. While we are still 4+ months out from opening kickoff night, here at RotoBaller we will have plenty of NFL content over the summer to make sure you are well-prepared for the upcoming season.
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