RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
12 weeks down, just a couple more weeks to go until the fantasy football playoffs. Your league's trade deadline may have passed, but it's still important to understand key risers and fallers to see who you may want to start and sit in the coming weeks based on new information.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games.
We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players. Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 13 Fantasy Football Risers
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
In his first game without Matt Canada as offensive coordinator, Pat F. led all tight ends in expected fantasy points, per Hayden Winks:
His nine catches and 120 yards were also both career highs. He did that despite playing on just 59% of the snaps in his second game back from a hamstring injury. With the injury now multiple weeks behind him, we should expect to see an uptick in snap share as the season rolls on.
We might not get career highs every week, but it's important to note that Kenny Pickett looked his way often without Canada at the helm.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed only had 34 receiving yards in Week 12, but he found the end zone on a season-high 10 opportunities (eight targets and two carries). His eight targets tied a season-high. What's most important is that Reed played on 73% of the snaps alongside Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. He did so in a game the Packers played with the lead throughout.
What's more, this was Luke Musgrave's first game on IR. Tucker Kraft filled in and played 96% of the snaps, but the Packers played more 3WR sets than normal. It's likely this continues with Musgrave out.
Jordan Love also appears to be hitting his stride in the last few weeks. He's averaging 293 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game in his last three games. The rookie Reed has caught three of those and now has six touchdowns on the season. His arrow is trending up.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
King Kyren rewarded his patient fantasy managers in Week 12 in a big way. After missing the last four weeks due to an ankle injury, he exploded for a career-high 204 yards and two scores.
That came on just a 61% snap share in his first game back. Prior to the injury, Williams had been seeing at least an 80% snap share in most games this season.
Another important metric to note was Williams' route participation. Despite Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both playing in Week 12, Kyren still saw six targets on 62% route participation. That bodes really well for both his ceiling and floor on a weekly basis.
As we've seen in the past with Sean McVay, he likes to give one guy a majority of the touches. First, it was Todd Gurley, then it was Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson, and now it's Kyren Williams. Enjoy the ride.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
With Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman Jr. out in Week 12, Rice played on 68% of the snaps. His targets (10), receptions (eight), and yards (107) were all season-highs. What's even better, his route participation of 71% was a new season-high for the rookie.
Rice appears to be hitting his stride at the right time and looks locked in as the Chiefs' WR1 going forward. Favorable matchups against the Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals loom in the fantasy football playoffs in Weeks 15-17.
Other Fantasy Football Risers:
Week 13 Fantasy Football Fallers
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
The Gus Bus forgot to leave the station in Week 12. He played just 27% of the snaps and got just eight carries in a game the Ravens led throughout. His RB opportunity share was just 34.6% in Week 12 compared to 56% in Week 11. And for the first time this season, rookie Keaton Mitchell actually got the start over Edwards. Check out the exact utilization courtesy of RotoBaller's own Michael F. Florio:
As Florio mentions, oftentimes times we see a "post-bye" bump for rookies. It should be somewhat concerning for Edwards that we may have seen that already pre-bye for Mr. Mitchell. Despite scoring 10 touchdowns so far this season, Gus' stock is trending down heading into the Ravens' bye week.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Through 11 games, Schultz has been a mid-to-low-end TE1. Generally speaking, fantasy managers have been able to consistently plug him into their lineups. In Weeks 4-11, he had double-digit PPR fantasy points in six of seven games.
In Week 12, Schultz played on just 48% of the snaps after registering an 85% snap share in the previous two weeks. What happened in Week 12? Well, Brevin Jordan played on a season-high 43% of the snaps in his second game back from a foot injury.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell are also both healthy at the same time and developing crazy chemistry with C.J. Stroud. With Collins and Dell feasting, Schultz's role as a primary pass-catcher is no longer needed. He may not play just 48% of the snaps going forward, but his role in the Houston offense is clearly diminishing.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy saw just three targets in Week 12. He's now seen three targets in two of three games since the Broncos' bye in Week 9. He's also not playing a full complement of snaps. In fact, he played just 61% of the snaps this week compared to an 80% snap share for Courtland Sutton. Sutton appears to be running away with the WR1 job in Denver this season. Through Week 12, Sutton is the WR25, while Jeudy is the WR54.
Mix in the fact that the Broncos are attempting just 29 passes per game (fourth-lowest in the NFL) and you've got a recipe for a very low weekly floor for Jeudy. Now that we've highlighted him as a faller, he'll probably proceed to go off in Week 13 against the Texans. Even if he does, just understand it's absolutely the right process to bench him until further notice.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Coming out of the bye week, Pitts played a season-low 50% of the snaps and saw a season-low two targets. What's even worse is his route participation when playing on just half the snaps. Thanks to Jacob Gibbs, we see here his route participation was just 67%. So of the 50% of his snaps, he didn't run a route 33% of the time.
At this point, he's just not playing enough and not running enough routes to justify starting him in fantasy football. You're better off starting Taysom Hill, who at least gets red zone carries. Pitts has just one touchdown this season and four total touchdowns in 38 career games. David J. Gautieri is spot-on with his analysis of the third-year tight end:
Other Fantasy Football Fallers:
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