Fantasy Baseball Outlooks For Rhys Hoskins, Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, James Paxton - MLB Signings Analysis

January 27, 2024

Brenton Kemp breaks down the latest MLB signings from the week of January 22, 2024: who is involved, where are they going, and what is their 2024 fantasy baseball outlook in their new environment?

There has been a host of significant free-agent signings over the last few days with the MLB offseason nearing its end before pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Rhys Hoskins, Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, and James Paxton all found new homes for the 2024 season of late. Each club certainly improves with their respective additions but what do these moves mean for current or prospective fantasy managers?

Let's dive in and analyze just what, if any, fantasy baseball impact these moves contain.

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Brewers' Rhys Hoskins Signing and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

When Rhys Hoskins crumbled to the ground attempting to catch a fly ball in foul territory against the Detroit Tigers in the spring of 2023, it had ACL tear written all over it. Unfortunately, that was indeed the case as the injury not only cost Hoskins his 2023 season, but it also unofficially ended his six-year run with the Phillies. The end became official when the club declined to tender Hoskins a qualifying offer, thus casting the 30-year-old off into the free-agent market.

You certainly can't blame the Phillies for cutting bait, not because of Hoskins' injury, but because Bryce Harper and his surgically-repaired elbow will take over full-time first base duties for the club in 2024. At the end of the day, there just wasn't room on the roster for Hoskins.

The Brewers become the beneficiary as they were able to land Hoskins on a two-year, $34 million pact that contains an opt-out after the 2024 season. For Hoskins, he gets a quality short-term guarantee with an opportunity to cash in long-term should he bounce back in a big way this season. For the Brewers, they fill a big hole at first base following a non-tender of Rowdy Tellez and a player with a very nice floor.

Hoskins has either hit at least 29 home runs or been on pace to exceed 29 runs in each of his six big-league campaigns. He has three 29-homer seasons (and as many as 34) in his three full MLB seasons. His 18 homers in 50 games as a rookie in 2017 was a 58-homer pace across 162 games. His 10 homers in 41 games in the shortened 2020 season is good for a 39.5-homer pace while his 27 homers in an injury-shortened 107 games in 2021 is a 41-homer pace.

That said, it would be unwise for fantasy managers to anticipate anything close to those three home-run-paced seasons for Hoskins in 2024. In fact, ATC projects Hoskins to appear in just 115 games while hitting 25 home runs and driving in 71 runs. That's a far cry from, say, his career-best 34 homers and 96 RBI in 2018, his first full season in the majors.

Still, there's plenty of runway for the former fifth-round pick to outduel those projections, namely staying healthy and appearing in more than just 115 contests. The Brewers don't have a full-time designated hitter as Hoskins, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras will split those duties. He'll get his days off, but Hoskins will get plenty of work at DH to keep his knee healthy this season.

He's been drafted as the 20th player off the board at first base with an ADP of 205.88. RotoBaller agrees with that sentiment, ranking him 20th among first basemen. However, that's likely the floor speaking as Hoskins certainly can exceed expectations and finish closer to the top 10 than the top 20 among all first basemen in the 2024 season.

Robert Stephenson Signing and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

A former first-round pick by the Reds back in 2011, Robert Stephenson has largely failed to live up to expectations. He fizzled out as a starter after making just 14 starts from 2017-18. He posted a ghastly 9.90 ERA in 10 relief outings in the shortened 2020 season, marking the end of his Reds tenure. After bouncing back with a 3.13 ERA with the 2021 Rockies, he fell on his face to the tune of a 5.43 ERA and severely diminished 22.3% K% in 2022 between the Rockies and Pirates.

And then came 2023. Stephenson began his season with 18 appearances of 5.14 ERA ball with the Pirates. Here we go again. But then came a move to the Rays, and of course, it's the Rays, so Stephenson would go on to post a tidy 2.35 ERA across 42 outings with Tampa Bay. The best part is a second half that saw him toss a 1.50 ERA alongside a massive 42.9% K-BB%. The latter was, by far, the best mark among pitchers with at least 20 second-half innings pitched, a full nine percent clear of second-place Pete Fairbanks.

Sheer dominance. It earned him a sizeable three-year, $33 million guaranteed from the Los Angeles Angels with a 2027 club option that only kicks in if Stephenson misses at least 130 days due to an elbow injury from 2024-2026. Not bad for a pitcher sporting a 4.64 career ERA.

The question for fantasy managers is two-fold. First, what is his role on his new team? Second, can he sustain his success outside of Tampa Bay where the pixie dust allows them to turn every acquisition into a gem?

As Angels general manager Perry Minasian and Stephenson himself have both noted, Carlos Estevez remains the team's closer entering the 2024 season, even after posting a 6.59 ERA in the second half of 2023. The club has also signed relievers Matt Moore, Luis Garcia, and Adam Cimber this offseason. As it stands right now, the plan is for Stephenson to work the eighth inning, but it could swing either way.

If he can continue to dominate while Estevez's struggles roll on, he's the team's new closer for sure. If Stephenson reverts to pre-Tampa form, there is plenty of competition to drive him down the depth chart.

At this point, it sure looks like the former is more likely. Given his newfound elite strikeout stuff and excellent control combined with at least consistent hold opportunities and the odd save to begin the season, he is certainly worth a late-round pick as he sports a 358.98 ADP at the moment, allowing fantasy managers to grab a major steal if things can align for Stephenson on his new club.

Aroldis Chapman Signing and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Stephenson wasn't the only high-leverage reliever to enjoy a bounce-back campaign as veteran southpaw Aroldis Chapman regained some of his early-career form between the Royals and World Champion Rangers in 2023.

The soon-to-be 36-year-old went from a 4.46 ERA in 2022 to a 3.09 mark in 2023. Furthermore, he regained his elite strikeout stuff (and velocity) as he posted a massive 41.4% K%, second-best among pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, one spot ahead of Stephenson. Walking 14.5% of the hitters you face is nothing to write home about, but it was at least an improvement on his 17.5% clip from two seasons ago.

He certainly out-pitched his $3.75 million salary and netted a one-year, $10.5 million pact from the Pittsburgh Pirates this week. He'll slide right into a high-leverage spot to begin the season, but consistent save opportunities are not in his future.

It's going to be awfully difficult to supplant incumbent Pirates closer David Bednar after he tossed a tidy 2.00 ERA while locking down 39 saves in 66 outings for the club in 2023. That's three straight seasons with a 2.61 ERA or better from the right-hander.

Fantasy managers should be more concerned about whether or not the eighth inning belongs to Chapman. Additionally, can a 22nd-ranked Pirates offense give their late-inning arms enough leads? It sure looks like the eighth will be Chapman's, but his counting stats (holds) will depend on the club's ability to keep leads late into ball games.

At the end of the day, when you add in a wealth of strikeouts, Chapman is a solid late-round pick in holds leagues with an ADP trending around 397.

James Paxton Signing and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

The Dodgers keep on adding as James Paxton is the newest member to their starting rotation, joining fellow offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Paxton inked a one-year, $11 million deal that contains a $1 million Opening Day bonus with the superteam for the 2024 campaign.

The veteran southpaw was productive for much of the 2023 season with the Red Sox. That's the good news. The bad news is not only did he crater in his final three starts, but he once again fell short of 100 innings pitched. He averaged slightly over five innings per start with a 4.50 ERA when it was all said and done.

He also struggled with the long ball and saw a dip in strikeout rate. However, the work was solid for the most part, and given his 3.69 career ERA, fantasy managers know that he can be very good when healthy. The constant question when it comes to this player is whether he can stay on the field long enough to warrant an investment.

Only twice over the last nine seasons has the 35-year-old thrown more than 150 innings. He has made just 25 starts since the beginning of the 2020 season, so it wasn't a huge surprise to see him fade down the stretch, even if it was only a 96-inning season in 2023.

Add a 26.9% K% and 18.9% K-BB% to his rock-solid career ERA and Paxton could be the best fifth starter in baseball if he can stay on the field. Managers are proceeding with caution given his 488.26 prevailing ADP while RotoBaller has him as the 116th-ranked starting pitcher, right around names such as Sean Manaea and Graham Ashcraft.

At such a deep ADP, Paxton could be a late-round steal if he can build off of what was largely a solid season with the Red Sox in 2023 while racking up his fair share of wins on a loaded Dodgers team in 2024.

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