December 29, 2017

Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel NBA DFS lineup picks for 12/29/17, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.

Welcome back to another loaded slate of Friday night NBA action! There are nine games taking place in the Association tonight, with first tip slated for 7pm, per usual. It's a pretty heavy East coast slate, with six of the nine games taking place at 8pm or earlier, and three West coast games to take us home with tip at 10pm or later.

What can we derive from these early morning Vegas lines? For starters, there are a few attractive over/unders (essentially, games with high point total projections) in the games we have lines on. The problem with a handful of these is that the spreads are often double-digits, meaning the blowout potential is strong and blowouts really mess with the minutes of our starters. The two games with relatively high over/unders and non double-digit spreads that have caught my eye - and are in contention for game-stacking - are the Mavericks at Pelicans (212.5) and the Suns at Kings (210). The spreads of those games are 6.5 points and 2.5 points respectively. Another game that doesn't quite meet my benchmark criteria, but also features a low spread and happens to be a pace-up game, is the matchup between the Pacers and the Bulls. (Keep in mind, there are no Vegas lines set for two matchups tonight that could feature monstrous totals, so keep an eye on Rockets - Wizards and the battle for Los Angeles between the Lakers and the Clippers.

Below you will find our daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel on 12/29/17. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options, to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too.

FanDuel DFS Guards

John Wall - PG, vs HOU ($8,600)

An underpriced Wall against a tired Rockets team on the second leg of a back-to-back? I think this creates the ultimate breakout spot for Wall, who's performances have been okay since returning from injury, but have generally been underwhelming. Wall's price has dropped $800 in the past week, and it certainly increases his chances of providing plus value for us on this crowded Friday slate. Another thing I love about picking on the Rockets here, besides the fact they played a grueling game to the wire in Boston last night, is that this will be a fast paced game (Rockets are 9th in Pace, Wizards are 12th) and defensive specialist Chris Paul is still sidelined. Thus far this season, Wall boasts are strong PPM rate of 1.18 and has a Usage rate of 29.1, which are both very desirable figures. He's viable in cash games and tournaments.

Dennis Smith Jr. - PG, at NOP ($4,700)

Smith Jr. has been disappointing the last week or so, but this is too good of an opportunity to pass on in tournaments because it's the closest thing to a dream matchup. We have a pace-up game for the Mavericks here against a horrendous defense (they rank 19th against PG's in defensive efficiency) and Smith Jr's price is as low as I can ever recall. Thus far this season, the Pelicans have allowed more than 3.5 points above salary based expectations to opposing point guards, and with the low price Smith Jr. is listed it, he has the potential to provide seven to eight times his value - especially if this game stays as close as the 6.5 point spread indicates. Dennis projects for 34-36 minutes tonight with a Usage rate of nearly 30. Those numbers are fantastic at any price point, but especially rare for someone available for less than $5k. I will certainly be loading up a few shares of DSJ in tournaments this evening.

Other DFS Point Guards to Consider: Russell Westbrook - PG, vs MIL ($11,500); Austin Rivers - PG, at LAL ($6,200)

Wayne Ellington - SG, vs BKN ($4,600)

It's shame Dion Waiters is going to be sidelined for some time, because I would have locked and loaded him here as this is a dream spot for shooting guards and we all know Waiters isn't shy about chucking it from anywhere on the court. That said, I do love the value Wayne Ellington represents here. After all, it's the same awesome matchup Waiters would find himself in, but we get Ellington at quite a discount from where Waiters was priced before injury. The Brooklyn Nets rank 28th in defensive efficiency against two-guards this season, and this is an extreme pace up game for Ellington and his teammates, which should hand-deliver more scoring opportunities. Ellington is projected for 32+ minutes tonight in Waiters' absence, and he can be used in cash or tournaments, but I prefer him in cash.

Devin Booker - SG, at SAC ($7,800)

In this game, we find a fairly cheap Devin Booker who has somewhat quietly injected himself back in the starting lineup, and since then, has crushed value in four straight games. Now is the time to roster at this "somewhat of a discount" price because based on his production, this price is heading north very soon. The Suns offense very clearly runs through Booker, and as such, he's a monster from a minutes and Usage perspective, averaging more than 32 minutes and boasting a Usage rate of 30 this season. Since his return from injury, he's made an incredible leap from 1.08 PPM to 1.32. While that jump might not be sustainable in the long run, it's certainly not impossible - and this is a good matchup for Booker to exploit.

Other DFS Shooting Guards to Consider: James Harden - SG, at WAS ($11,800); Buddy Hield - SG, vs PHX ($5,100)

FanDuel DFS Forwards

Harrison Barnes - SF, at NOP ($6,500)

I've mentioned already why I like this game from a Vegas perspective and because of the porous New Orleans defense (along with the fast pace they operate with). Specifically against small forwards, the Pelicans are (surprise, surprise) also very weak, ranking 29th in DVP and 20th in defensive efficiency. I initially thought Barnes would draw the defense of Anthony Davis (while Davis isn't a great defenender, the length scares me), but it appears E'Twaun Moore and Barnes will be locked on each other. Barnes projects for an attractive 30-32 minutes with a Usage rate hovering between 26-28. Due to all the stars at the top of the SF list, I also think he could get a little overlooked, particularly if SF is the "consensus" spot to pay up tonight.

Other DFS Small Forwards to Consider: C.J. Miles - SF, vs ATL ($3,500); Kevin Durant - SF, vs CHA ($11,300); Kelly Oubre Jr. - SF, vs HOU ($4,400)

Anthony Davis - PF, vs DAL ($10,900)

If am paying up for players tonight in tournaments, John Wall and Anthony Davis are my first two choices. I think there are plenty of value plays to go around tonight, and that makes paying for his salary much easier to handle. Davis flashed an enormous ceiling his last time out, showing us what he can do when that Usage rate is at 30 or above - he poured in 69 FanDuel points against the Nets. I think this matchup bodes well for him to have a great night again. When healthy this season, Davis has been adept at putting together great PPM numbers (1.4) and boasts a PER of 28.87 - by far the highest mark among available power forwards tonight.

Other DFS Power Forwards to Consider: Draymond Green - PF, vs CHA ($8,300); Bobby Portis - PF, vs IND ($4,500)

FanDuel DFS Centers

Alex Len - C, at SAC ($6,000)

For once, it seems like the center position on a Friday is actually fruitful. It's normally one of the easiest (along with PF) to narrow down, mainly because of all the duds or guys with lack of upside. Today, that isn't the case as I had a hard time narrowing my choices. For the price, matchup and upside, my favorite play on the board is Alex Len. Len projects for 25 minutes and a 20 Usage rating this evening, and if his shot is falling at just his average rates, I think he can smash value here. What I love about Len is that he is incredibly efficient and effective with his minutes on the floor. In fact, only DeMarcus Cousins bests his 1.27 PPM mark among centers - but he happens to be nearly twice the price.

Other DFS Centers to Consider: DeMarcus Cousins - C, vs DAL ($11,000); Marcin Gortat - C, vs HOU ($4,400)

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