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Frank Ammirante looks at Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's dynasty value to see if he is a strong option for 2021.
We continue with our evaluation of the dynasty league value of high-profile players in our Dynasty Price Check series. Should you trade them or trade for them? Are they being overvalued or undervalued by dynasty players?
We've already covered players like Ezekiel Elliott, which you can read here, and James Robinson, which you can find here, as well as A.J. Dillon, which you can find here.
Today, we'll be looking at Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.
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Player Profile
Size: 6-1, 193 lbs
Breakout Age: 19.4 (80th percentile)
40-Yard Dash: 4.45 (80th percentile)
Source: Player Profiler
Jeudy was selected in the first round (15th overall) by the Broncos in the 2020 NFL Draft, making him the second wide receiver off the board, after college teammate Henry Ruggs III. As a prospect, Jeudy was described as an elite route-runner with excellent burst and the ability to make plays after the catch. While he doesn't have elite size or speed, this is a player with first-round draft capital and elite breakout age. This bodes well for his future outlook because he was able to put up strong production earlier than his peers in college. Draft capital and breakout age are two major factors when evaluating dynasty values - Jeudy scores well in both categories.
2020 Review
| 2020 | 16 G | 113 TGT | 52 REC | 856 YDS | 3 TD | 16.5 Y/R | 46.0 Ctch% | 7.6 Y/TGT |
Jeudy flashed his elite route-running ability throughout his rookie season:
Thread on Jerry Jeudy destroying defenders with batshit insane route running in his rookie season: pic.twitter.com/dHpDZeeb8R
— Johnny Kinsley (Daft Punk Forever) (@Brickwallblitz) February 22, 2021
This is a receiver with the ability to generate separation at will. What's impressive is that Jeudy looked like a seasoned veteran with his route-running at the age of 21. While he struggled with drops (46.0 Ctch%), that's a correctable flaw - it's more encouraging to see how he's able to make defenders look foolish.
Don't let a few drops make you ignore that Jerry Jeudy put up the 10th-most receiving yards for a 21 year old since 1990. pic.twitter.com/uKrcC4IidP
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 17, 2021
Jeudy's impressive rookie season was overshadowed by standout performances from Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. Putting up the 10th-most receiving yards for a 21-year-old since 1990 bodes well for his future outlook.
Team Context
There are two changes in team context that impact Jeudy's value this offseason. First, the Broncos seem determined to move on from Drew Lock at quarterback. The team has been rumored as one of the potential suitors for Deshaun Watson. They can also target Sam Darnold or one of the talented rookies in this draft, such as Trey Lance or Mac Jones. Any of these options would be an upgrade over Lock, who is simply not the answer in Denver.
Lock was one of the most inaccurate passers in the NFL this past season. The other factor is the return of promising wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who came into this past season as the Broncos' top option on the perimeter. While Sutton will eat into Jeudy's target share, the potential upgrade at quarterback will likely have more of a significant impact, especially if the Broncos somehow found a way to trade for Watson.
Dynasty Price
According to FantasyPros consensus dynasty rankings, Jeudy is WR29 heading into the 2021 season, ranking behind players like Chase Claypool and D.J. Chark. While Claypool has more touchdown equity and Chark has Trevor Lawrence coming to town, Jeudy showed that he was a more polished player as a 21-year-old rookie. Since there is more buzz on Claypool and Chark, you can likely acquire Jeudy at a reasonable price because not enough people are giving him credit for his rookie production.
Outlook
It's time for you to go out and acquire Jeudy in your dynasty leagues. I would have no issue giving up a mid-first-round pick for him, as I think that he's better than every wide receiver in this draft besides Ja'Marr Chase. I would also consider trading Claypool or Chark for him - perhaps you can even squeeze out an extra pick because the latter two players are garnering more interest due to the potential departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster for Claypool, and the arrival of Lawrence for Chark.
Jeudy reminds me of Claypool's teammate, Diontae Johnson. Both wide receivers are fantastic route-runners who struggle with drops. The difference is that Jeudy flashed his potential in his age-21 season. This is a future star wide receiver who plays in an offense stacked with playmakers like Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler. The Broncos will get an upgrade at QB and I expect Jeudy to take a Diontae-like leap in his sophomore season. The time is now to buy Jerry Jeudy.
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