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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on May 1st, 2019. Justin Bales' MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Surprisingly, we have two solid slates on a Wednesday. There are five early games, followed by nine late games. This article will be focusing solely around the nine late games, as there are more than enough options to choose from on that slate.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/1/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too.
Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @BalesSJustin
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Today's Weather
At the moment, the weather looks clear. We don't have any drizzles, thunderstorms, or anything in-between. Keep in mind, weather can change overnight, so please double check the weather before making any final decisions on this slate.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola - P, vs DET ($9,000)
Nola has struggled quite a bit this season, but he could see positive regression, as his 4.18 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA are a bit lower than his 5.68 ERA. He has also posted 22.7% strikeout and 8.1% swinging strike rates, which are a bit below his career averages. Most importantly, Nola has allowed a 25% HR/FB rate, which is simply unsustainable. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Nola is a -215 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and this is a matchup that can right the ship of his season.
Caleb Smith - P, vs CLE ($8,600)
Smith has quietly been enjoying an elite season, posting a 2.17 ERA (3.04 xFIP and 3.00 SIERA) through five starts. He has also been a slightly better pitcher at home this season. Smith's fly ball rate is down to 43.5% this season, while his HR/FB rate sits at 11.1%. He also owns an elite 33.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 15.6% swinging strike rate. Smith gets a matchup against the Cleveland Indians, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and there's no reason to believe he's going to slow down anytime soon. Smith is a +137 underdog in a game set at 7 runs, and he's a strong option in all leagues tonight.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Jason Castro - C, vs HOU ($3,500)
Castro doesn't always draw the start, but he's expected to against Collin McHugh tonight. He brings a .212 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, boasting tremendous upside. He has also caught fire in limited at-bats recently, posting 77% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 102 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Castro isn't a safe option, but he can be used as a salary relief tournament option.
Freddie Freeman - 1B, vs SD ($5,100)
Freeman is a player that people often avoid against left-handed pitching, but he has been a more consistent and more power option against lefties. He brings .009 wOBA and .055 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Surprisingly, Freeman has struggled with consistency in Atlanta, but he has flashed plenty of power at home. He's a player that can be considered in all leagues, although he isn't going to come cheap.
Eric Sogard - 2B/SS, at LAA ($4,300)
Sogard has been unstoppable since joining the Toronto Blue Jays, as he's hitting .415 with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.210 OPS through 10 games. He also owns two steals over that span. Sogard gets a plus matchup against Felix Pena, and he brings .01 wOBA and .079 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Sogard isn't cheap anymore, but he has been consistent enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Justin Turner - 3B, at SF ($3,500)
Turner is entirely too cheap, even with his recent struggles. His .222 average with little power over his last 10 games doesn't tell the full story, as he has also posted 53% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Turner enters this game with .025 wOBA and .056 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He's expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and it's only a matter of time before he breaks out.
Jean Segura - SS, vs DET ($4,600)
Segura was enjoying an outstanding season before his recent injury, but he has looked in solid form since returning, as well. Overall, he owns a .329 average with 8 extra-base hits (1 home run), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base through 19 games. Segura gets a strong matchup against Daniel Norris, and he has been at his best against left-handed pitching. He's expected to hit second in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Max Kepler - OF, vs HOU ($4,700)
As expected, Kepler is in the midst of a breakout campaign for the Minnesota Twins. Through 23 games, he owns a .278 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .920 OPS. Each of these categories are up over his last 10 games, as well. Kepler has posted 40% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over that span, as well. He gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Collin McHugh, but he's leading off, and has been playing well enough for all leagues.
Franmil Reyes - OF, at ATL ($3,700)
Reyes has been heating up recently, as he's hitting .267 over his last 10 games. He also owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBIs over that span. He continues to possess elite home run metrics, posting 66% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates over the last 15 days. He also owns a 98 MPH exit velocity over that span. Reyes has been a more consistent option against left-handed pitching, and he gets a solid matchup against Max Fried tonight. Reyes makes an outstanding salary relief option.
