ADP Cost Analysis - David Dahl vs Yasiel Puig

February 14, 2019

Outfielder David Dahl and Yasiel Puig are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Chris Zolli examines each player to decide how to approach the OF position on draft day.

Young, exciting, five-tool ballplayers: that is what you have when considering Yasiel Puig and David Dahl. Both have their warts in the past (Dahl's health and Puig's temperament), but each are great assets leading into 2019.

Dahl is going about three rounds higher in NFBC leagues at around pick 67, while Puig is going at pick 96. Is it worth forking up the extra 29 spots for Dahl, or can owners wait and get similar production from Puig?

RotoBaller is going to break down all the pressing ADP questions you need to know before draft day. Check out a few of our other positional ADP debates: catcher, first base, outfield.

David Dahl – Coors Stat-Line Stuffer

(ADP 67 Overall)

Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl has only played 140 career MLB games but has shown enough in that time to warrant a good amount of fantasy attention. In what has basically constituted a full season of plate appearances (508) in 2016 and 2018, Dahl has a .293/.341/.518 slash line with 53 extra-base hits, 145 R+RBI, and 10 stolen bases. This was in between an injury-riddled 2017 season, but Dahl’s .859 OPS in the big leagues shows that he has the tools to be a fantasy mainstay.

A first-round draft pick in 2012, Dahl has been dominant at each level, culminated with a .963 OPS in 2016 while splitting time with Double-A and Triple-A. Hitting 14 home runs in 2014 and 18 home runs in 2016, Dahl has shown power to go along with averaging 20 stolen bases from 2014-2016. Posting a line drive rate above 20% throughout the minors, Dahl had a 23% line drive rate in the majors last season. Paired with a 37.7% hard hit ball rate, Dahl has done a solid job of making contact.

A .311 BABIP paired shows that Dahl was a bit unlucky compared to his batted-ball profile, but his 23.2% HR/FB shows that his 16 home runs in 271 plate appearances may have been a bit lucky. Dealing with a rib injury in 2017 and a broken foot in 2018, it seems that injuries are the only thing keeping Dahl from consistent production in the big leagues.

Yasiel Puig – Big Cuban Machine

(ADP 96 Overall)

Yasiel Puig broke onto the scene in 2013 with a .319./.391/.534 slash line in 104 games in 2013, grabbing people's attention with his amazing play and flashy way of doing so. While this was solid, and his .863 OPS in 2014 was strong as well, he dipped to a .748 OPS in only 183 games played over 2015 and 2016. Relatively unconsidered going into 2017, Puig hit 28 home runs in 152 games and followed that up with 23 bombs in 125 games last season. After dealing with a litany of injuries in a relatively short career and looking at a logjam in the Dodgers outfield, Puig was traded to the Reds this offseason.

A move to the Reds not only gives Puig more of an opportunity to play but also gives him a good lineup to play with. Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez were top-50 players last season with Joey Votto and Jose Peraza on the fringes of the top-50 as well. This comes off of a 2018 season where Puig posted career-best totals in line drive rate (21.3%) and hard-hit ball rate (38.4%). He also had a career-low with 42.6% ground balls and his 20% HR/FB rate was only topped by his 21.8% rate in 2013. His 24.1% soft hit ball rate was the worst of his career, but his ability to keep the ball off of the ground (and produce a career-best .227 ISO) makes Puig look very attractive.

A lot is made about Cincinnati's ballpark, instantly prompting many to tout Puig as a 30-home run player for the Reds. While it is true that Cincinnati is a homer haven, Dodger Stadium is actually the best ballpark for home runs according to advanced metrics. Eno Sarris of The Athletic took a deep dive into ballpark factors recently and showed that Dodger Stadium has a 1.207 homer-to-high-drive factor, with GABP in Cincy third at 1.20. So, yes, Puig is going to a great hitter's ballpark and an increase in playing time will lead to an increase in counting statistics, but it may not be the major ballpark boost that some may expect.

Conclusion

When push comes to shove, Dahl is the better player and the better value in the sixth or seventh round. Puig is going to get the chance to play every day in Cincinnati, but Dahl is primed for a top-50 finish in 2019.

No matter what analysis we give on Dahl, there is one thing that supersedes all--he is projected as the cleanup hitter for the Rockies. With Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado in front of him and Trevor Story behind him, there is a good chance that Dahl approaches 175, or even 200, R+RBI this season. Considering that he is slotted in as an OF3 currently, Dahl has the opportunity for massive ROI during the 2019 season.

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