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Daily Divide - Week 13 DFS Lineup Picks


Daily Divide: Week 13

Nathan and Matt each offer Week 13 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make sound decisions for their DFS lineups. Hearts and stomachs full from our recent Thanksgiving feast, Nathan and Matt are ready to dispense some Week 13 DFS taeks.

Nathan: Solid week 12 for us with Adrian Peterson going bonkers and Eric Decker the gift that keeps on giving. Let's do it again this week.

You can follow the handsome Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle -- and the ‘better at DFS than cooking’ Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff . Matt: Let’s cook up some good picks.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Thirteen

QB: Cam Newton at NO:
Cam Newton against New Orleans' defense may be a bit chalky, but I think the chalk tastes good here. I think Newton is the clear top QB play of the week as he faces the same defense that allowed him to throw for 315 passing yards and 3 touchdowns earlier this season. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and Cam Newton is the QB2 on the season, when these things comes together; fantasy points are scored in bunches.

Stacking: We say this every week on this article, but for real...Cam/Greg Olsen is one of the best stacking options on the week. We have also seen some flashes from Devin Funchess that make him a viable GPP play. (I'm an admitted Funchess “Truther” though.)

Matt: A top option with a top matchup. This chalk tastes as good as mashed potatoes.

Nathan: My sister outed me on Twitter about the fact that I don't know how to make mashed potatoes this week, and Matt thinks he is funny. I like mashed potatoes, but I haven't had any since I moved out of my parents house 4 years ago.

Matt: I knew following Nathan’s sister would pay off eventually, and I finally hit the goldmine.

RB: Javorius Allen at MIA:
Javorius “Buck” Allen showed on Monday night he is a talented back, and this week he faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL this season. The Ravens are likely to continue with a conservative game plan with Matt Schaub at the helm and Allen should see plenty of touches making him worth his slightly elevated price from last week. Allen was used in both facets of the game last week as he had 12 carries and 5 targets, and after a solid game, I expect the Ravens to lean on him even more this week.

Matt: The talent wasn’t as obvious for me in last week’s one game sample. But a high usage back in a good matchup is enough for DFS. (And Baltimore showed they can still move the chains Joe Flacco.) Where the price is right, I’m in.

WR: Jarvis Landry vs BAL:

We go back to this Ravens/Dolphins game as the Ravens secondary is as bad as the Dolphins run defense. This Ravens defense has allowed the third most fantasy points to wide receivers and Landry has seen double digit targets in three of the last four games and I expect we will see more of the same this week. I am not too worried about the emergence of Devante Parker as I think his production is taking away the Rishard Matthews points while Landry remains a steady producer. With the badness of the Ravens secondary, Parker does makes for a cheap GPP play that could pay off nicely.

Stacking There are just better options out there at similar price points to Tannehill, so I'm avoiding this stack even in a nice matchup.

Matt: One of my favorite plays this season, regardless of matchup (as he showed last week). As easy as making instant mashed potatoes.

TE: Jordan Reed vs DAL:
Jordan Reed has had below 10 PPR points just once this season, and it isn't just the nice floor that makes him a cash game play this week, he also averages 25 PPR points in games where he gets 10 or more targets. Only Rob Gronkowski and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (who has played two games) have averaged more PPR points than Reed’s 16.12 this season. When I can get the highest scoring tight end of the weekend at a middle tier price, it is something to take advantage of even if it isn't the best matchup in the world.

Stacking Not doing it with Kirk Cousins this week. No thanks. .

Matt: Tough matchup this weekend. If you’re not playing Greg Olsen this week, I’d prefer Delanie Walker in a fantastic matchup. But with Reed’s track record and weekly volume this play will suffice..

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Thirteen

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Giants:
With Nathaniel offering the premier QB play of the week at any price, I thought I’d offer a cheap alternative for those looking to spend elsewhere. Since Week 6, Ryan Fitzpatrick has three finishes as a top eight QB (all in plus matchups), and three finishes from QB11 to QB17 (all in minus matchups). As a fun note, after Fitzpatrick’s concussion early in Week 8, backup QB Geno Smith went onto to finish as QB10 while playing ‘only’ 89% of the snaps. In short, Fitzmagic’s floor is solid. (Really the entire Jet’s passing game’s floor is solid.) The Giants passing game ranks in the bottom third in a number of metrics (24th on numberFire, 25th in FootballOutsider’s DVOA, 27th in 4for4’s aFPA to QBs.) So Fitzpatrick figures to have his usual solid floor, coupled with a reasonable likelihood of his fourth top eight fantasy finish in another plus matchup.

StackingBoth great options this weekend regardless of who you play at QB, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker both make fantastic stacking options in cash. This may even be a week you can stack all three in tourney lineups and hope for the best.

Nathan: New York, New York. Points, points. I'm not sure what that means, but I wanted to type it. Fitzpatrick is a solid play for those fading Mr. Newton (not fig).

Matt: That joke is as unfunny as you not knowing how to make mashed potatoes is funny.

RB: David Johnson at STL. Otherwise titled the “Matt is starting to hate picking DFS RBs” scection:
I have to be honest here... I’m slowly shifting how I view DFS RBs. I like to ask if over 20 points is reasonable to expect when targeting a DFS RB. Increasingly, that answer is no. This weekend there may be as few as three RBs I feel comfortable saying that about. (Adrian Peterson every weekend. LeSean McCoy and DeAngelo Williams in fantastic matchups round out the list.) So unless you're limit yourself to only playing top three consensus options every weekend, we’re left with the host of guys who all project out relatively similarly, between that 13 point and 18 point mark. So who do you play this weekend?

Jonathan Stewart figures to be a highly owned play, assuming people can see the past the Panthers’ passing game. The Panthers are heavily favored against a Saints team who can’t stop the run. I like Stewart this weekend, but is he really that likely out score Buck Allen by more than a few points? For that matter, how much more do we project him for than Shaun Draughn, especially if we consider the salary difference? With all this in mind, I turn my attention to Mr. David Johnson. With Andre Ellington ailing and Chris Johnson out for a few weeks HC Bruce Arians has proclaimed David the RB1 this weekend, and he tends to be a straight shooter. Though I agree with those who touting David’s talent this week, I’ll leave it for others to say. As we consider the wasteland DFS RBs has become of late, David Johnson may make a cash games play on projected usage and matchup alone. (The Rams have been surprisingly easier to run on than expected.) Maybe I’m overreacting to recent weeks, but maybe it’s just time to stop paying middling prices for middling options.

Nathan: Your running back observations are spot on and I agree with this play. I think pairing one of DeAngelo Williams/Adrian Peterson/LeSean McCoy with Buck Allen or David Johnson is the optimal strategy this week.

Matt: All this said, worth noting Draftkings has pretty soft pricing on both McCoy and Williams this weekend.

WR: Alshon Jeffery vs SFO:
All year the answer to the question “Should I play Alshon Jeffery this weekend” has been the same answer as to the question: “Is Alshon Jeffery healthy?” It’s been pretty simple. He’s played six games this season, and the reporting on his projected playing time has been fairly accurate. Reports leading into Week 1 were pretty iffy on Jeffery, where he put up a 5-78 line while playing 78% of the snaps. In the four games he (somewhat predictably) played well over 80% of the snaps, he has been fantastic, averaging a 8.75-126-.5 line. (He has three hundred yard games in that span. His lowest catch and yardage totals came in the same week, still a solid 7-90 line.) His injuries have kept his price in check, making him an even more obvious play when healthy. Currently not even listed on the injury report, Jeffery’s price and projections will make him one of first players in my lineups this weekend.

Stacking:Jay Cutler is a fantastic cheap QB play and stacking option.

Nathan: I'm not a fan of the top tier priced receivers this week and on sites where Jeffrey is in that second tier, I think he makes for a nice play.

TE: Greg Olsen vs NO:
As stated above, I’d rather play Delanie Walker over Jordan Reed, and on the cheaper end Jacob Tammer has been a solid play with WR Leonard Hankerson out. Nathan and I would be remiss, though, if we didn’t talk about this week’s top TE play. The Saints’ defensive suckage is noteworthy, but especially noteworthy against the tight end position, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed. In the last three weeks alone, they’ve given up six touchdowns to the position, including allowing multiple TD games to #DailyDivide favorites Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker. It’s not just big names though, as some guy named Ryan Griffin got involved last week to the tune of a 4-72-1 line. While there are cheaper options I like fine this weekend, Olsen’s floor and ceiling in this matchup are both quite attractive.

Stacking: While it may feel odd to have so much money sunk into the QB/TE positions, the Cam/Olsen stack offers plenty of floor and upside.

Nathan: Yeah, playing Olsen seems like the “Keep it simple, stupid” play of the week. The lower priced guys give you cap relief to spend on RB/WR, but that won't mean much when Olsen goes for 8-120-1, which is definitely in the range of possibilities.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like:

Nathan likes: Marcus Mariota, Lesean McCoy, Shaun Draughn, Eric Decker(every week until he retires), Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Scott Chandler

Matt likes: Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, LeSean McCoy, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant (noticing a theme?), Jets WRs, Odell Beckham Jr, Gary Barnidge (only if Austin Davis starts as announced).

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