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Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 13

DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

This is the thirteenth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 13, we saw stat lines such as the Jacksonville Jaguars' running back room totaling 14 carries, the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room catching three touchdowns, and the Cleveland Browns tight end room seeing just two targets.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars Running Backs

Doug Pederson & Press Taylor

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2021 Jaguars 17.41 73.06 0.59 3.47 5.47 24.53 0.06
Doug Pederson Prior (128 games) 21.97 97.33 0.81 4.62 6.55 39.44 0.27
Jaguars RBs vs. Detroit Lions 14 60 0 3 3 12 0

The Jacksonville Jaguars running back room had a rough game in the 40-14 loss to the Detroit Lions as they combined for 14 carries, 60 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 12 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has totaled 256 carries (21.33 per game), 1259 rushing yards (104.92 per game), eight rushing touchdowns (0.67 per game), 46 receptions (3.83 per game), 60 targets (five per game), 350 receiving yards (29.17 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.17 per game).

Sunday's performance against the Lions was definitely disappointing, but the season averages as a whole for the Jacksonville Jaguars' running back room are in the ballpark of what we'd expect from a Doug Pederson running back room. Travis Etienne should still be valued as a low-end RB1 for the rest of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Travis Etienne, JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner

 

Tennessee Titans Running Backs

Todd Downing

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2021 Titans 28.24 123.65 0.94 4.71 5.94 36.65 0.06
Todd Downing Prior (33 games) 24.24 103.67 0.79 4.88 6.45 37.18 0.09
Titans RBs vs. Philadelphia Eagles 17 45 0 4 5 22 0

The Tennessee Titans got destroyed by the Philadelphia Eagles this past week, losing 35-10. In this game, the Titans running back room was disappointing as well, as they combined for 17 carries, 45 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, five targets, 22 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 295 carries (24.58 per game), 1278 rushing yards (106.5 per game), 10 rushing touchdowns (0.83 per game), 47 receptions (3.92 per game), 58 targets (4.83 per game), 470 receiving yards (39.17 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.33 per game).

This past week's performance was definitely disappointing for Derrick Henry and the Titans' running backs, but the season averages as a whole seem to be in line with what we'd expect from a Todd Downing running back room. Continue to value Henry as an upper-end RB1.

Fantasy players this impacts: Derrick Henry, Dontrell Hilliard, Hassan Haskins, Julius Chestnut

 

Cleveland Browns Tight Ends

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

TE Rec. TE Tgts TE Rec. Yds TE Rec. TD
2021 Browns 5.59 8.35 61.94 0.59
Kevin Stefanski Prior (51 games) 5.51 7.82 56.14 0.55
Alex Van Pelt Prior (49 games) 4.63 7.18 47.43 0.41
Browns TEs vs. Houston Texans 2 2 17 0

The Cleveland Browns may have won this past week, but their tight end room didn't put up very good receiving stats in the game – combining for two receptions on two targets for 17 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has totaled 70 receptions (5.83 per game) on 97 targets (8.08 per game) for 694 receiving yards (57.83 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.25 per game).

Sunday's performance was clearly below what we normally expect from the Browns' tight end room, but the season averages are right in line with the typical Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt tight end room. Expect this group to bounce back to performing around the season averages when David Njoku makes his return soon.

Fantasy players this impacts: David Njoku, Harrison Bryant, Pharaoh Brown, Miller Forristall

 

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2021 Cowboys 23.82 111.41 0.82 5.41 6.94 38.41 0.18
Mike McCarthy Prior (332 games) 21.42 90.57 0.58 4.10 5.52 31.86 0.11
Kellen Moore Prior (49 games) 23.35 104.98 0.78 4.92 6.53 34.90 0.18
Cowboys RBs vs. Indianapolis Colts 32 197 4 5 6 29 0

For the third consecutive week, the Dallas Cowboys running back room lands on this list after their dominant performance against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. In this game, the Dallas Cowboys backfield combined for 32 carries, 197 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, five receptions, six targets, 29 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 328 carries (27.33 per game), 1609 rushing yards (134.08 per game), 17 rushing touchdowns (1.42 per game), 40 receptions (3.33 per game), 54 targets (4.5 per game), 353 receiving yards (29.42 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.17 per game) on the year.

These numbers are well above the career averages we've seen from head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's running back rooms in the past. Having said this, this is now three weeks in a row that the Cowboys running back room has dominated and put up monster fantasy numbers. One dominant week is a fluke. Two dominant weeks in a row is a coincidence. But three dominant weeks in a row – that's a trend. At this point, you should continue to ride out this hot streak by Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott until the wheels come off – if they ever come off this season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and Malik Davis

 

Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receivers

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2021 Eagles 8.76 14.06 117.24 0.65
Nick Sirianni Prior (65 games) 10.75 17.09 138.03 0.8
Shane Steichen Prior (41 games) 10.54 16.85 144.41 0.85
Eagles WRs vs. Tennessee Titans 20 27 274 3

The Philadelphia Eagles destroyed the Tennessee Titans this past week, winning 35-10. In this game, the Eagles wide receiver room went off for 20 receptions, 27 targets, 274 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 157 receptions (13.08 per game) on 229 targets (19.08 per game) for 2096 receiving yards (174.67 per game) and 17 receiving touchdowns (1.42 per game).

These current season averages are above head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's career wide receiver room averages, but this is somewhat expected based on the talent the Eagles have in their wide receiver room this year. Looking ahead, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are likely going to have slightly worse fantasy performances in the coming weeks, but regardless they should both still be very good fantasy plays.

Fantasy players this impacts: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Zach Pascal

 



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