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As the old adage goes, "Defense wins championships." When push comes to shove, strong defenses can shut down even the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs held the Miami Dolphins, who were once on a record-breaking pace on offense, to just 14 points. Defenses can also prevent fantasy managers from winning championships. What happens when Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill face off against more of the league's elite?
But there's also the flip side. Will matchups against the Panthers' putrid rush defense propel players to playoff glory? As the season comes to a close, playoff matchups become increasingly more important to track. With zero wiggle room in a single-elimination tournament, the matchups can make or break your title aspirations.
Below, we'll dive into the best and worst playoff schedules for every position, and why you can target (or trade away) some of these players before trade deadlines arrive to better your odds of ending 2023 with a fantasy championship.
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Best Quarterback Playoff Schedules
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- Week 15 at Buffalo
- Week 16 at Miami
- Week 17 vs. Detroit
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
- Week 15 vs. San Francisco
- Week 16 at Chicago
- Week 17 at Philadelphia
What do the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions have in common? They all can put up points in bunches. They're also not particularly strong against fantasy football quarterbacks. That's a perfect recipe for Dak Prescott to continue his hot streak. If he does even a portion of what he's doing right now, he will take fantasy teams to championship games.
Kyler Murray's schedule isn't quite as easy as Prescott's, but it sets up nicely for a quarterback who was attainable for the majority of the regular season. The 49ers' matchup is tough (although Joshua Dobbs did drop 23.4 fantasy points on them in Week 4 as a member of the Cardinals) but then it gets much easier. Both Chicago and Philadelphia are currently among the five worst defenses against fantasy quarterbacks.
Smart managers picked up Murray several weeks before his return from an ACL injury, meaning they already had another quarterback on their roster worth starting. Platooning two signal-callers through Murray's playoff schedule is an excellent plan of action. Be wary of weather concerns for outdoor games in Chicago and Philadelphia in late December.
Worst Quarterback Playoff Schedules
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
- Week 15 vs. New York Jets
- Week 16 vs. Dallas
- Week 17 at Baltimore
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 15 vs. Baltimore
- Week 16 at Tampa Bay
- Week 17 vs. Carolina
One of these men has been solid for fantasy football in 2023. The other has not and probably isn't leading any teams to the playoffs.
The problem for Tua Tagovailoa is that he's been subpar against good teams. Not even good defenses necessarily, just teams with winning records. The Eagles have been awful against quarterbacks (as noted above when drooling over Murray's schedule). Yet, Tagovailoa scored just 11 fantasy points. Here are his splits against teams with winning records and teams looking up in the standings (four points per passing touchdown, -1 for interceptions).
| Vs. Teams Under .500 | Vs. Teams Over .500 |
| 22.32 Fantasy points per game | 12.91 Fantasy points per game |
The Jets fall into the first category but boast one of the best pass defenses in football. Then, Tagovailoa gets to face two teams locked into the playoff race, Dallas and Baltimore. Not only are those teams both Super Bowl contenders, but their defenses are independently elite.
As it turns out, Lawrence should not have been listed among the "Elite Eight" on preseason rankings lists. His career touchdown rate is hovering in Daniel Jones / Jacoby Brissett territory. That's not where surefire first-overall NFL Draft picks are supposed to be.
If he's even still rostered in leagues, it's time to cut bait. Lawrence has just one plus matchup in the fantasy playoffs. Tampa Bay is beatable through the air. Carolina can't stop the run so the Jaguars will lean on Travis Etienne Jr. Baltimore is a lockdown defense in both facets of the game. Don't bother with Lawrence in the postseason, even if he somehow got you there.
Playoff Streaming Candidate
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
- Week 15 vs. New York Giants
- Week 16 at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 17 at Tampa Bay
If you're a fantasy manager who prefers to stream quarterbacks based on matchups, here's a candidate for you. Derek Carr is hurt and heading into his bye week, meaning if he's not already on the waiver wire, he will be dropped in many leagues.
Both the Giants and Buccaneers offer little resistance against the pass. Tampa Bay is stout against the run, so the Saints will be more inclined to throw. The Rams are slightly worse than the Giants in terms of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but that's largely due to game script. The Rams will keep it competitive and force Carr to keep throwing. There are zero cold weather concerns about any of these three games.
Best Running Back Playoff Schedules
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
- Week 15 vs. Houston
- Week 16 vs. Seattle
- Week 17 at Houston
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15 at Las Vegas
- Week 16 vs. Buffalo
- Week 17 at Denver
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 15 at Seattle
- Week 16 vs. New York Giants
- Week 17 vs. Arizona
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15 at Carolina
- Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
- Week 17 at Chicago
Winter is coming.
When the weather gets colder, Derrick Henry becomes harder to tackle. It's been that way for years. Henry annihilating the Houston Texans has also been a longtime trend. The future Hall of Famer has rushed for over 200 yards against Houston four different times since 2019. Last season, his stat line in his "down" game against the Texans was 126 yards and a touchdown. Twice in the fantasy playoffs, Henry will see a bull logo on opposing helmets. The Seahawks fill in the sandwich. They aren't strong against the run, either.
| Derrick Henry | Vs. Houston | Career Averages |
| Carries | 18.8 | 17.1 |
| Yards | 115 | 80.7 |
| Yards Per Carry | 6.13 | 4.72 |
| Catches | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0.73 |
Austin Ekeler and D'Andre Swift don't face a defense in the top half of the league when it comes to fantasy points to opposing running backs. There's no reason for either to see the bench.
Bijan Robinson's playoff schedule is just as juicy if Arthur Smith stays committed to feeding his first-round pick. The rookie logged his career-high in rushing attempts (22) against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. That translated to 95 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts and Panthers are just as generous on the ground as the Cardinals, so expect similar production. On paper, the Bears are just as easy but have vastly improved in recent weeks.
Worst Running Back Playoff Schedules
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
- Week 15 at New Orleans
- Week 16 at Philadelphia
- Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Devin Singletary / Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
- Week 15 at Tennessee
- Week 16 vs. Cleveland
- Week 17 vs. Tennessee
Saquon Barkley will do everything he can to be productive in the abysmal New York offense, but the matchups won't do him any favors. As of this writing, all three of his fantasy playoff opponents rank in the top 10 for the least amount of fantasy points to running backs. Philadelphia is the top spot. Hopefully, Barkley will have Tyrod Taylor (ribs) back by the time Week 15 rolls around to alleviate some of the attention the Pro Bowler is getting from defenses.
The division of labor in the Houston backfield is a big question mark. For the first time all season, a Houston running back topped 85 rushing yards in Week 10. That was backup Devin Singletary, not Dameon Pierce. The latter was already beginning to lose carries before suffering an ankle injury that's kept him on the sidelines. When he's healthy, the carries may be split. Against that onslaught of rush defenses, a timeshare will doom either back.
Note: Kenneth Walker III draws the Eagles' top-rated run defense in Week 15.
Best Wide Receiver Playoff Schedules
D.K. Metcalf / Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
- Week 15 vs. Philadelphia
- Week 16 at Tennessee
- Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
- Week 15 vs. San Francisco
- Week 16 at Chicago
- Week 17 at Philadelphia
Cooper Kupp / Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
- Week 15 vs. Washington
- Week 16 vs. New Orleans
- Week 17 at New York Giants
Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
- Week 15 at Detroit
- Week 16 vs. New England
- Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Some NFC West teams are still waiting to play their juicy matchups against the NFC East. Philadelphia and Washington are the two worst defenses against wide receivers and are both found on this list (sometimes in multiple instances).
After Philadelphia, the matchups don't get much tougher for Seattle's dynamic duo. Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be included in the grouping, but Geno Smith has only thrown well enough for the trio to score double-digit PPR points once. He's more of a reserve option at the tail end of the season.
For Marquise Brown, San Francisco's weak spot of their defense is their cornerbacks. The numbers weren't quite there in his first game with Kyler Murray, but they're coming, especially with a soft playoff schedule.
It's exciting to see favorable matchups for the Rams' receivers, knowing what the passing offense looks like with a healthy Matthew Stafford. He's due back in Week 11. Hopefully, he can stay healthy for the rest of the season. If it's Carson Wentz or another backup throwing to Nacua and Kupp, it's not nearly as enticing. New Orleans is above average against wideouts but the other two matchups are cakewalks.
Courtland Sutton will have ample opportunities to maintain his absurd touchdown rate in 2023. Seven of his 41 catches have finished in the end zone. Stefon Diggs has scored seven times on 73 catches. Sutton's championship week opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, is in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The Lions and Patriots aren't far behind. Jerry Jeudy is also listed here, although the offense is strictly the running game and Sutton right now. It's working for Denver, so things may not change.
Worst Wide Receiver Playoff Schedules
Tyreek Hill / Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
- Week 15 vs. New York Jets
- Week 16 vs. Dallas
- Week 17 at Baltimore
Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
- Week 15 at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16 at New York Jets
- Week 17 vs. San Francisco
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 15 at Green Bay
- Week 16 vs. Jacksonville
- Week 17 vs. New Orleans
Just like his quarterback, Jaylen Waddle draws the toughest stretch for any player at his position. The same can be said, obviously, for Tyreek Hill, but managers will never shy away from the WR1.
Managers can, however, fade Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Washington wideouts won't have to wonder what it's like facing off against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. They'll experience it firsthand in Week 16. The Rams have only allowed four wide receiver touchdowns through Week 10 (tied for the second-fewest). San Francisco corners are suspect, but Sam Howell has a knack for taking sacks. Nick Bosa, Chase Young, and the rest of the edge rushers will make passing difficult for the young quarterback.
| Quarterback | Number of Sacks |
| Sam Howell | 47 |
| Zach Wilson | 33 |
| Russell Wilson | 30 |
| Daniel Jones | 30 |
| Bryce Young | 29 |
Mike Evans gets to stare down PFF's fourth-best coverage cornerback, Jacksonville's Darious Williams, in Week 16. Before that, a December tilt at the Frozen Tundra. Jaire Alexander isn't having his best season, but the Packers don't allow wideouts to rack up fantasy points because their run defense is floundering. And in Week 17, a matchup against his arch-nemesis, Marshon Lattimore (assuming the New Orleans cornerback has recovered from his ankle injury).
Note: Amari Cooper draws the Jets' top-rated pass defense in Championship week. The rest of his playoff schedule, however, is not worrisome.
Best Tight End Playoff Schedules
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15 at Cincinnati
- Week 16 vs. Detroit
- Week 17 vs. Green Bay
David Njoku, Tennessee Titans
- Week 15 vs. Chicago
- Week 16 at Houston
- Week 17 vs. New York Jets
Joshua Dobbs has his eyes on tight ends. In two starts with Tennessee last season, he targeted tight ends on 29% of his attempts. His play in Arizona at the beginning of the season led to Zach Ertz finding his way onto fantasy rosters once again. Hockenson has earned 23 targets in two weeks with Dobbs now a member of the Vikings. The Bengals offer no resistance against the position in any format. Detroit is not far behind. While Green Bay is middle of the pack, managers who see they are facing Hockenson in the playoffs are going to be terrified.
A quarterback shuffle could happen by the time the fantasy playoffs arrive. For now, the Browns are starting rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson (shoulder/ankle) on the shelf for the season. In his small sample size, DTR looks the way of David Njoku often.
Just like Hockenson, a healthy target share with a generous schedule is gold for fantasy managers. Houston is among the worst at preventing tight ends from racking up fantasy points. Chicago and New York also allow over 10 half-PPR fantasy points per game to the position.
Note: Darren Waller has a favorable playoff schedule but he is not healthy right now and remains a question mark for the home stretch.
Worst Tight End Playoff Schedules
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
- Week 15 at Tennessee
- Week 16 vs. Cleveland
- Week 17 vs. Tennessee
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 15 vs. Baltimore
- Week 16 at Tampa Bay
- Week 17 vs. Carolina
The Tennessee Titans haven't allowed a tight end to score a single touchdown. Dalton Schultz gets the unfortunate task of squaring off against the AFC South rival twice in the span of three weeks. Despite that, the Titans aren't actually the best defense against fantasy football tight ends. That honor goes to the Cleveland Browns, who Schultz gets to face in between the two divisional games. It's a gauntlet for the fantasy playoffs.
Evan Engram has yet to find himself in the end zone this season. His three opponents in the fantasy playoffs have allowed just five tight end touchdowns combined. Number 17 will rack up his normal share of receptions against Tampa Bay, but there's legitimate bust concern against both Baltimore and Carolina. As stated above when talking about his quarterback, Jacksonville may not throw anywhere close to their average against the Panthers.
Playoff Streaming Candidate
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
- Week 15 vs. Houston
- Week 16 vs. Seattle
- Week 17 at Houston
If Derrick Henry isn't scoring every touchdown against Houston, Chigoziem Okonkwo might. The matchups against Houston are hospitable, even if he's not cobbling together the strongest of stat lines right now. Will Levis has looked toward Okonkwo slightly more than Ryan Tannehill did. It's a longshot bet, but if there's an injury or two to starting tight ends, Okonkwo may be the desperation option that managers need.
Best DST Playoff Schedule (Streaming)
Los Angeles Rams
- Week 15 vs. Washington
- Week 16 vs. New Orleans
- Week 17 at New York Giants
Sacks on Sam Howell and a possible date with undrafted rookie Tommy Devito. Those are two meaty matchups for a defense that is surprisingly dreadful for fantasy football this season. The Giants' offense has been equally atrocious, so it's hard to argue that they shouldn't be in the starting conversation come fantasy Super Bowl Sunday. However, if Tyrod Taylor is back under center for the Giants, write off the Rams as a suitable option.
Worst DST Playoff Schedules
Dallas Cowboys
- Week 15 at Buffalo
- Week 16 at Miami
- Week 17 vs. Detroit
Baltimore Ravens
- Week 15 at Jacksonville
- Week 16 at San Francisco
- Week 17 vs. Miami
The first and second-best fantasy defenses, as of this writing, don't get the gift of the Giants or the Patriots. For Baltimore, Jacksonville isn't a major concern (Lawrence has more turnovers than touchdown passes) but Brock Purdy has a lengthy history of protecting possessions outside of the recent losing streak. Plus, it's an East Coast team traveling all the way to the other side of the country. Miami and their league-leading 31 points per game is not what you'd like to see on your defense's schedule.
The Cowboys also have the Dolphins on their schedule. Detroit and Buffalo can all but up points with ease. Although, like Lawrence, Josh Allen will gift the Cowboys some turnovers.
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