Alex Burns's Way Too Early Fantasy Basketball Rankings for 2023-2024

July 9, 2023

With the NBA Draft complete and Summer League underway it can only mean one thing: It's time for fantasy basketball rankings! Alex releases his way too early fantasy hoops rankings, along with analysis for a few players.

Life in the NBA moves fast. Less than four weeks ago, we witnessed the Nuggets deliver the city of Denver its first NBA title. Then came the NBA draft. And now, I'm sitting on the couch critiquing Summer League performances while stuffing my face with a bag of Cheetos. Oh, the irony of being a fantasy basketball analyst.

By the same token, the draft season will be upon us before we know it. So, for all the true fantasy hoops sickos out there, I thought it would be fun to bring you some early 2023-2024 rankings. Before you get all judgemental, the answer is yes. Yes, it is way too early. Yes, there are lots of moving pieces. Yes, this list will change dozens of times before the regular season begins. But remember, we're sickos. It's never too early for fantasy hoops content.

In this piece, I release my way too early top 50 rankings for 9-Category fantasy basketball with some notes on a few intriguing guys. In part 2, we'll look at 51-100. Enough talk, let's dive right in!

2023-2024 Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Alex's Top 50

Nikola Jokic On Top

Jokic has finished as the chief fantasy option in each of the last three seasons and there's no reason to believe that will change anytime soon. A true fantasy unicorn, his skill set is simply magical. He scores with elite efficiency and rebounds with tenacity. Oh yeah, he's also one of the best passers in the history of the NBA. How's that for a cherry on top? He is the ultimate 1.01 regardless of format.

Luka Doncic In The Top 3?

Two things have kept Luka Doncic from finishing as a top 3 fantasy option in the past: poor free throw percentage and turnovers. According to Basketball Monster, he finished 16th in per-game value despite averaging 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.4 steals per game last season. If you remove turnovers and free throw percentage from the equation, he shoots up to 3rd.

You can't pick and choose which categories count or not in fantasy, but the lesson in all of this is that his finish isn't a good representation of his true fantasy value. His high turnovers (3.6) come from his ultra-high usage (36%). And that's just something you get with high-usage players. Overall, there just aren't too many fantasy options with nightly triple-double upside. The value he provides in points, rebounds, and assists far outweighs his middling free throw percentage and turnovers.

The Young Playmakers

This is where the first round gets fun! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4), Tyrese Haliburton (5), and LaMelo Ball (9) all made it inside my top 10.

Having SGA as high as four might feel like I'm ranking him too close to his ceiling, but can you blame me? After being drafted in the 3rd/4th rounds last fall, he exploded on the scene and made everyone eat their pre-draft rankings with a top 3 fantasy finish. Fueled by his high-end defense (1.7 steals) and elite free-throw shooting (90%), it should be more of the same. Any dip in scoring or efficiency can be made up in assists with the additions of Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace.

Sidenote: SGA led the entire league in drives to the basket last season by more than 250 drives (1,622). Now imagine the snafu defenses will be in with Holmgren down low as a lob threat and Wallace on the perimeter for open threes when the defense collapses. Scary stuff.

Haliburton was a top 10 guy in per-game value last season and was just awarded a five-year, $207 million contract extension as a result of his impressive play. I can't take credit for the bullish ranking, however, as NBC Sports Edge's very own, Zak Hanshew, declared him a top 5 guy last offseason. He contributes threes (2.9) and steals (1.6) while shooting at an efficient clip (49/40/87). Oh, and he dished out the second-most assists per game last season (10.4). There's not much to dislike about his game. The Pacers even went and got him some new toys with the additions of Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, and Jarace Walker. All signs point to Indiana being uber-competitive this season and Haliburton is the motor behind it.

Much like Haliburton, Ball was just recently awarded a five-year max extension worth up to $260 million with the Charlotte Hornets. In doing so, they've made it official: Ball is their guy. In terms of skill set, he has the fantasy upside to be a top-five asset. He can score (23.3), rebound (6.4), pass (8.4), and drill threes (4.0) but what leaves him a few spots behind the other aforementioned guards is efficiency. His best shooting season was under 44% from the field and his free-throw shooting has been all over the place. He shot 75% from the charity stripe during his rookie season, 87% as a sophomore, and 83% last season. Sure, it may seem like minor discrepancies, but everything is under a microscope when talking about the top 10.

Could It Be Point-Booker SZN in PHX?

Could we see Phoenix experiment with Devin Booker at the point a little this season? It's certainly a possibility.

Now, before writing this notion off, think about it for a second. Chris Paul is out, and Bradley Beal is in. The Suns have also failed to bring in a starting-caliber point guard and they aren't exactly swimming in cap space. On top of that, Booker has excelled in the past when asked to facilitate the offense. In 17 games without CP3 last season, he put up 29 points and 8.2 assists on 65 TS%. That's elite stuff. Combine all of that with the fact that Beal is one of the best off-ball shooting guards in the league and we very well may be looking at a hefty dosage of point-Book.

I know it's only July but I'm going to go ahead and plant my flag in the ground right now. If Booker opens the season as the Suns' de facto starting point guard, he will cruise to his first-ever top-15 fantasy season. Book it. (Pun very much intended)

Can Mikal Bridges Continue His Brooklyn Dominance?

Bridges has always been a solid 9-cat guy but the move to Brooklyn launched him into a different stratosphere. In 27 games with the Nets, he posted 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and a steal on 47/37/89 shooting splits. As a result, he was a top-10 fantasy asset over the final two months of the season. Looking at Brooklyn's additions in free agency thus far, there is no reason to believe he won't be the man once again. Sure, the Nets could get involved in a multi-team Damian Lillard trade and that would shift things, but as of now, Spencer Dinwiddie and Cam Johnson are the only other usage threats.

Not to mention Bridges has been a pillar of health and fitness since entering the league in 2018. He has yet to miss a game in his NBA career and even played 83 regular season games last year. If the situation remains as is come fall, he should have no problem returning second-round value with upside for more.

Can Lauri Markkanen Do It Again?

Not only was Lauri Markkanen's emergence one of the best NBA stories this season, but he also became the best fantasy value relative to where he was drafted. According to Hashtag Basketball's ADP data, Markkanen had a blended ADP of 87.4 averaged together between all of the major sites. That's the 7th round in a 12-team league. For crying out loud, Ben Simmons, Collin Sexton, and Saddiq Bey all had higher ADPs than Markkanen. At season's end, he was 19th in per-game value and 22nd in total value according to Basketball Monster.

The million-dollar question then becomes: was his performance a fantasy one-hit wonder?

After five seasons of inconsistent play, it's a fair question. But I believe the answer is a resounding no. When looking at the Utah Jazz roster, it's clear that Markkanen is the guy. The addition of John Collins doesn't move me and the selection of Taylor Hendricks certainly doesn't muddy the water.

One thing worth mentioning, however, is that it wouldn't shock me to see slight regression from Markkanen in the efficiency department. Coming into last season, his best shooting year was 48% on 10.2 shots per game. He shot 50% on 17.3 field goals last season. That's an incredibly wide disparity. Did he get that much better? Or does he fall back closer to his career average of 45% from the field? I'm willing to bet the latter is the most likely scenario.

All that to say, he still profiles as a fantastic fantasy option. I'd just rather look his way in the 3rd/4th rounds instead of selecting him at his ceiling.

What Should We Expect From Victor Wembanyama?

We've heard it all by now. Victor Wembanyama is the greatest prospect ever and if he doesn't have a better career than Michael Jordan, he'll be labeled a bust. Kidding. But that's how it feels sometimes. We know he has the talent, size, and skill set to be an NBA star, but what should we expect from him in fantasy this season?

Wemby should have little trouble providing immense value across the board, but don't be surprised if there are a few growing pains along the way. If Summer League has shown us anything, it's that it could take some time to adjust to the physicality of today's NBA. That's the main reason I have him at 27 in my rankings and not higher. Still an elite option, but the truth of the matter is that you are likely going to have to reach into the early/mid-second round (and sometimes the first) if you want him on your roster. I'm just not willing to do that at this point.

On the flip side, Wemby is practically the only player in this range who legitimately has the skill set and upside to finish number one overall in fantasy. If you can get him anywhere in the third round, it should be considered great value.

Where Does Chet Holmgren Belong?

For whatever reason, I've struggled to decide where to put Chet Holmgren. Much like Wemby, he has a unicorn skill set that should allow him to rack up blocks, rebounds, and threes with solid efficiency. The injury that kept him out all of last season is a thing of the past and he's looked every bit the part once again in Summer League.

The only thing keeping me from ranking him closer to Wemby (meaning top-30ish) is that their situations are a little different. Wembanyama will be the focal point of the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs while Holmgren will join a competitive and stacked Thunder team featuring Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams. That could mean fewer opportunities to produce.

Nonetheless, Holmgren is practically a lock to finish as a top 50 guy and has gargantuan upside for more. Things could change as we get closer to the draft season but for now, he looks like a terrific selection towards the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th round.

That's it for the first installment of my "Way Too Early Fantasy Basketball Rankings" for the 2023-2024 season. Be on the lookout for my rankings from 50-100 coming soon!

Do you agree? Are there any guys that you disagree with? Follow me on Twitter @aburnshoops and let me know! Make sure you are following @RotoBaller and @RotoBallerNBA for lots more fantasy basketball content throughout the offseason.

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