Welcome back to RotoBaller's midseason rankings update. Today, we'll be taking a look at the top half of the outfield, with Part 2 coming tomorrow. These rankings were compiled by myself, Nick Mariano, and Bill Dubiel, and any players ranked too high or low are definitely the fault of my colleagues. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Midseason Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Part 1)

Tier One

Mike Trout

Remember when people were suggesting that Bryce Harper had surpassed Trout as the best player in baseball, either real or fantasy (or both)? Yeah…about that. Trout has cut his strikeout rate, started stealing bases again, and gotten better against curveballs and in deep counts. He currently has a 44.0 fWAR for his career. That makes him better than all but 249 players in the history of baseball, and he’s not even 25 years old yet. WAR isn’t perfect, of course, but you get the point. As D’Angelo Barksdale once said, “The king stay the king.” It’s Mike Trout’s world. We’re all just living in it.

Tier Two

Kris Bryant
Bryce Harper
Mookie Betts
Starling Marte
George Springer
Carlos Gonzalez
Giancarlo Stanton
Ryan Braun

Not to say Harper’s not a generational talent himself. Even in a disappointing sequel to his MVP season, Harper is on pace for 35 homers and 24 stolen bases, and walking more often than he strikes out. His BABIP is also a good 70 points below his career mark at the moment. Speaking of BABIP, Bryant’s predictably seen some regression there, but cutting down significantly on his swings and misses has allowed him to improve upon his phenomenal rookie year. In 265 fewer plate appearances, he’s already nearly equaled his home run total from last season, and only Josh Donaldson has tallied more R+RBI than Bryant’s 138. Betts is third. He’s on pace to set career bests in all five standard categories. You want to talk about career bests? How about Marte having 30 stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and stealing 30 in the first half this year? That’s helped make up for his expected power decline. Springer’s not running as much as we might have hoped, but he’s stayed healthy so far and headed for a 30 homer campaign. Stanton’s recent struggles were well-documented, but he’s still piled up counting stats. Gonzalez and Braun may be on the wrong side of 30 with long injury histories, but for now, they remain among the best outfielders in fantasy baseball.

Tier Three

Gregory Polanco
Wil Myers
Ian Desmond
Yoenis Cespedes
Nelson Cruz
Chris Davis
Mark Trumbo
Charlie Blackmon
Jose Bautista
Andrew McCutchen

After some growing pains, Polanco has become the all-around player many thought he could be. After some literal pains (mostly in the wrists) cost him the better part of the last two seasons, Myers has regained the form that helped him win Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. We haven’t had a 30/30 season at the MLB level since 2012, but Myers has an honest shot at it. That would make him the second first baseman to ever accomplish the feat, after Jeff Bagwell. Desmond shook off an atrocious 2015 and an even worse start to this year and is on his way to a career season while making a seamless transition from shortstop to center field. Plenty of people expected Cespedes to fall off from the torrid pace he set in his first two months at a Met last season. He’s somehow been even better so far in 2016. Cruz is gunning for his third straight 40 homer season at age 36. Davis led MLB in homers two of the last three years, and he’s second on his own team right now to Trumbo, whose 28 lead everyone at the break. Blackmon hasn’t run as wild as he did last year, though he’s having his best season by most other measures. While it’s true that Bautista and McCutchen weren’t their usual dominant selves in the first half, their talent and track records make it difficult to rank them much lower.

Tier Four

Marcell Ozuna
Stephen Piscotty
Brandon Belt
Carlos Beltran
Christian Yelich
Ben Zobrist
Jay Bruce
Adam Jones
Jackie Bradley
Miguel Sano

Ozuna has bounced back in a big way from his difficult 2015, while teammate Yelich continues to be a terrific hitter despite not flashing much power. Piscotty and Belt are having similar seasons. Beltran, at age 39, is on pace for more home runs than he’s hit since he was 29. Fellow graybeard Zobrist has rediscovered his pop while showcasing his typically excellent plate discipline. He’s on a 110-run pace. Bruce may be a horrid defender, but he’s been quite good at the plate so far. Whichever contender finally trades for him will hope he avoids the second-half swoon that capsized his 2015. Jones is a virtual lock for his fifth straight 25 HR season and figures to top 100 runs and 100 RBI for good measure. Bradley’s perceived value was at its nadir a year ago; now, he’s deservedly starting in the All-Star Game. Sano started slow and then suffered an injury right when he was finding a groove, but he remains one of the game’s most exciting young talents.

Tier Five

Justin Upton
Adam Duvall
Matt Kemp
Dexter Fowler
Odubel Herrera
Melvin Upton Jr.
J.D. Martinez
Kole Calhoun
Lorenzo Cain
Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin-Soo Choo

What kind of odds do you think you could’ve gotten in Vegas back in March if you’d been able to bet on which Upton brother would be better in 2016? Justin’s Tigers career couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, but he’s always been a streaky hitter and it’s not unreasonable to expect a big second half as he continues to adjust to a new league. Meanwhile, the Artist Formerly Known as Bossman Junior has resurrected his career with a vintage performance. He’s the only player in baseball with 15 HR and 20 SB at the break. Duvall’s a one-trick pony, but plenty of people would love to mash taters like he does. Fowler was headed for a career year before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Herrera’s more than doubled his walk rate, trimmed his whiffs and tapped into more power after a surprisingly excellent rookie year. Martinez is working his way back from a broken elbow and would rank significantly higher if that weren’t the case. Cain is on the shelf as well, though his performance before the injury was somewhat disappointing. Did you know that Calhoun is 17^th among all outfielders in fWAR since the start of 2014? Ellsbury has managed to avoid the disabled list, mostly because I drafted Aaron Hicks in a bunch of leagues. You’re welcome, Ellsbury owners. Avoiding injury is one thing Choo hasn’t done this season, but he’s been excellent when on the field.

Tier Six

Khris Davis
Mike Napoli
Nomar Mazara
Josh Reddick
Matt Holliday
Hanley Ramirez
Danny Valencia
Michael Saunders
Adam Eaton
Billy Hamilton

It feels like Napoli isn’t getting a lot of pub for his fantastic first half. Sure, the average is middling, but the counting stats have more than made up for it. Davis offers a similar profile. Mazara’s scuffled badly of late, but remember that he’s barely old enough to drink legally. Kid’s gonna be special, and he’s got the talent to successfully adjust in the second half. Reddick’s hot start to the year was derailed by injury, as usual. Saunders, meanwhile, has managed to avoid the trainer’s room and is well on his way to a career year. It’s weird to see Holliday hitting .240, but he’s at least recovered the power he lost last season and you have to figure the average will climb. His contract still sucks, but Year 2 in Boston has gone a lot better for HanRam. Valencia picked up right where he left off last year and figures to be an asset to whatever contender acquires him later this month. Let’s just forget that I floated the idea that Eaton might be a better draft value than Mookie Betts at one point this offseason. At least my enduring skepticism toward the Hamburglar has been valid.

 

Midseason Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Rank	Player Name	Team	Tier
1	Mike Trout	LAA	1
2	Kris Bryant	CHC	2
3	Bryce Harper	WSH	2
4	Mookie Betts	BOS	2
5	Starling Marte	PIT	2
6	George Springer	HOU	2
7	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	2
8	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	2
9	Ryan Braun	MIL	2
10	Gregory Polanco	PIT	3
11	Wil Myers	SD	3
12	Ian Desmond	TEX	3
13	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	3
14	Nelson Cruz	SEA	3
15	Chris Davis	BAL	3
16	Mark Trumbo	BAL	3
17	Charlie Blackmon	COL	3
18	Jose Bautista	TOR	3
19	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	3
20	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	4
21	Stephen Piscotty	STL	4
22	Brandon Belt	SF	4
23	Carlos Beltran	NYY	4
24	Christian Yelich	MIA	4
25	Ben Zobrist	CHC	4
26	Jay Bruce	CIN	4
27	Adam Jones	BAL	4
28	Jackie Bradley	BOS	4
29	Miguel Sano	MIN	4
30	Justin Upton	DET	5
31	Adam Duvall	CIN	5
32	Matt Kemp	SD	5
33	Dexter Fowler	CHC	5
34	Odubel Herrera	PHI	5
35	Melvin Upton Jr.	SD	5
36	J.D. Martinez	DET	5
37	Kole Calhoun	LAA	5
38	Lorenzo Cain	KC	5
39	Jacoby Ellsbury	NYY	5
40	Shin-Soo Choo	TEX	5
41	Khris Davis	OAK	6
42	Mike Napoli	CLE	6
43	Nomar Mazara	TEX	6
44	Josh Reddick	OAK	6
45	Matt Holliday	STL	6
46	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	6
47	Danny Valencia	OAK	6
48	Michael Saunders	TOR	6
49	Adam Eaton	CWS	6
50	Billy Hamilton	CIN	6
51	Leonys Martin	SEA	7
52	Yasiel Puig	LAD	7
53	Corey Dickerson	TB	7
54	Trayce Thompson	LAD	7
55	Evan Gattis	HOU	7
56	Michael Brantley	CLE	7
57	Melky Cabrera	CWS	7
58	Yasmany Tomas	ARI	7
59	Kevin Pillar	TOR	7
60	Jason Heyward	CHC	7
61	Joc Pederson	LAD	7
62	Ben Revere	WSH	7
63	Curtis Granderson	NYM	8
64	Brandon Moss	STL	8
65	Rajai Davis	CLE	8
66	Steven Souza	TB	8
67	Brett Gardner	NYY	8
68	Colby Rasmus	HOU	8
69	Jayson Werth	WSH	8
70	Alex Gordon	KC	8
71	Gerardo Parra	COL	8
72	Steve Pearce	TB	8
73	Cameron Maybin	DET	8
74	David Peralta	ARI	8
75	Nick Markakis	ATL	8
76	Josh Harrison	PIT	8
77	Michael Conforto	NYM	8
78	Denard Span	SF	9
79	Hunter Pence	SF	9
80	Angel Pagan	SF	9
81	Ender Inciarte	ATL	9
82	Carlos Gomez	HOU	9
83	Billy Burns	OAK	9
84	Domingo Santana	MIL	9
85	Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	9
86	Byron Buxton	MIN	9
87	Derek Dietrich	MIA	9
88	Jon Jay	SD	9
89	John Jaso	PIT	9
90	Jarrod Dyson	KC	9
91	Ryan Rua	TEX	10
92	Randal Grichuk	STL	10
93	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	10
94	Max Kepler	MIN	10
95	Mallex Smith	ATL	10
96	Jorge Soler	CHC	10
97	Brad Miller	TB	10
98	Jarrett Parker	SF	10
99	Blake Swihart	BOS	10
100	Brandon Drury	ARI	10
101	Avisail Garcia	CWS	10
102	Howie Kendrick	LAD	10
103	Kolten Wong	STL	10
104	Eddie Rosario	MIN	10
105	Danny Santana	MIN	11
106	Chris Owings	ARI	11
107	Tyler Naquin	CLE	11
108	Austin Jackson	CWS	11
109	Norichika Aoki	SEA	11
110	Tommy Pham	STL	11
111	Aaron Hicks	NYY	11
112	Michael Taylor	WSH	11
113	Coco Crisp	OAK	11
114	Joey Rickard	BAL	11
115	Socrates Brito	ARI	11
116	Andre Ethier	LAD	11
117	Delino DeShields	TEX	11
118	Enrique Hernandez	LAD	11
119	Carl Crawford	FA	11
120	Adonis Garcia	ATL	11
121	Dalton Pompey	TOR	11
122	Jeremy Hazelbaker	STL	11
123	Brock Holt	BOS	11
124	Desmond Jennings	TB	11
125	Anthony Gose	DET	11
126	Rusney Castillo	BOS	11
127	Chris Coghlan	CHC	11
128	Paulo Orlando	KC	11
129	Oswaldo Arcia	TB	11
130	Scott Schebler	CIN	11

 

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