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Joe Nicely breaks down 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 13 of the NFL season. Fantasy football updates, notes, and analysis for Week 13 December 2022.
As we head into Week 13 of the NFL season and draw closer to the fantasy league playoffs, every decision matters for fantasy managers.
The NFL - and fantasy football - is a game of constantly moving parts, and just when you think you know everything, things can change.
In the interest of keeping fantasy GMs up to date and informed, I'll be putting some interesting nuggets in one convenient place. This info might be in the form of stats, trends, or injury news, but it's info that I believe can help fantasy managers win their matchups this week. Without further delay, here are 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 13.
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#1. Showdown (Shootout?) in Cincy
The Week 13 slate is shaping up to be an exciting one from a fantasy perspective, and while we'll talk about some of the other games in this article, a matchup between Kansas City and Cincinnati is undoubtedly the marquee game of the week.
With a tight point spread (currently KC -2.5) and high O/U (52.5), two of the league's best QBs in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, and talented players on each offense...this one has all the makings of a classic.
Cincy is expected to get star WR Ja'Marr Chase back in the lineup this week, while KC has won five in a row and will look to avenge a 27-24 overtime loss to the Bengals in last year's AFC Championship game. Get your popcorn ready.
#2. Trevor Lawrence Is Starting To Live Up To The Hype
No reasonable person can hold last year's Urban Meyer-led disaster against Trevor Lawrence, but it is fair to say that the top overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft has gotten off to a sluggish start in his pro career.
However, the most-hyped quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck has quietly been playing very well in recent weeks. Last week's dramatic upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens was Lawrence's best game at the professional level. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs in Week 12's upset win over Baltimore. Finally coming into his own, the Clemson product has now tossed six TDs to no INTs across his last three and he stands second in PFF passing grade since Week 9 of the season.
Lawrence and the Jags now glide into a juicy matchup against a Detroit Lions squad that's coughed up 18 passing TDs on the year and ranks 26th in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
#3. Justin Fields Returns
One of the better stories of the NFL season was interrupted last week when Justin Fields was forced to miss a Week 12 date with the New York Jets due to a sprained AC joint on his non-throwing shoulder. Perhaps surprisingly, Fields has resumed practice this week and got in full sessions both Thursday and Friday. He appears set to return in Week 13 for a divisional clash with the Green Bay Packers.
After a sluggish start to the year, Fields has been a revelation over the last six weeks. He currently stands as the overall fantasy QB6 - despite missing last week's game - and his 834 rushing yards are the most in the NFL at the QB position. It will be interesting to see how Chicago handles their franchise QB this week, but at the least we can likely expect fewer designed runs against Green Bay.
#4. Jets Offense Lifts Off With Mike White
With Zach Wilson benched in Week 12, Mike White's surprise insertion into the Jets' starting lineup was undoubtedly a spark for an offense that produced just 44 passing yards and three points in a Week 11 loss to the New England Patriots with Wilson at the helm. White turned a sluggish offensive unit around, posting 31 points against the Chicago Bears. This offensive awakening led to a fantasy windfall for managers of players like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore (remember him?).
Although the statistics show that this Jets offense would be better with, well, practically any quarterback other than Wilson, Mike White did put forth an outstanding performance in his first start of 2022 last week against Chicago. White led New York to a season-high 466 yards of total offense while passing for 315 yards and three TDs against the Bears.
The journeyman QB will try to keep this long-dead offense humming against the Minnesota Vikings this week. It's a better spot than it appears at first glance. Despite their impressive record, the Vikes' defense has been underwhelming. Minnesota ranks just 27th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA this year.
#5. 700 Days
700 days...that's how long it's been since Deshaun Watson last played in a real NFL game. I'm not here to make any comments or judgments on Watson the person, but Watson the football player is bound to be a tad rusty.
I'll also reserve my comments on the NFL scheduling Watson's return game against his former team, the Houston Texans. I'm sure that was a total coincidence, right? Heading to the city in which he was once beloved, the much-maligned QB gets a soft landing spot for his return to action, as the Texans have been perhaps the worst defense in the league this season. Houston enters Week 13 ranked 27th in Total Defense DVOA.
#6. Rams Throwing In The Towel?
What a difference a year makes! The Los Angeles Rams entered 2022 as the defending Super Bowl champions with one of the league's most potent offenses. As we head into Week 13, the squad sports a 3-8 record and appears on the brink of throwing in the towel on what's been a lost season.
L.A. is set to take on Seattle this week without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, and Aaron Donald. The Rams offensive line has been an epic disaster with the combination of injuries and bad personnel leading to not one, but two concussions for Stafford, who has now been placed on IR and effectively shut down for the remainder of the season. Kupp broke records in 2021, but an ankle injury that required surgery currently has him sidelined and likely in the same boat as the aforementioned Stafford. Robinson was an exciting acquisition but has been a bust in L.A. and is done for the year.
While the Rams were the definition of fantasy goodness in 2021, they are untouchable right now.
#7. A.J. Brown Revenge Game
A classic revenge game spot for A.J. Brown this week, as he's set to take on a Tennessee organization that traded him on draft night. Brown has been a beast in Philly, posting 831 receiving yards and seven TDs on an impressive 28.4% team target share.
There's a strong chance Brown makes the Titans pay for trading him this week, as he has the potential to dominate a secondary that's been leaky throughout the year. Tennessee ranks 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers (2,034) and 30th in TDs allowed to the position (14).
#8. Josh Jacobs: RB1
Last week's 303-yard, two-TD masterpiece was the greatest statistical performance by a running back in Raiders history, as well as a nice reminder of just how great Josh Jacobs has been this year. He enters Week 13 as the overall fantasy RB2 and his 1,159 rushing yards are the most in the NFL. One of the NFL's only true workhorse backs, Jacobs is averaging 24.1 total opportunities per game while playing 73% of the Raiders' offensive snaps this year.
While topping last week's historical performance is unlikely, Jacobs gets another true eruption spot against the Chargers on this slate. L.A. is relinquishing a league-worst 5.63 yards per carry to opposing RBs and ranks 29th in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA.
Fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on Jacobs' status as he's dealing with a calf injury that's limited him in practice all week and earned him a questionable tag.
#9. What's Up With Najee?
It's been a roller coaster few weeks for Najee Harris' fantasy managers, as the Steelers' back had produced his best results of the season prior to being injured against the Colts on Monday Night Football.
His absence from both Wednesday and Thursday practices wasn't encouraging, but his limited participation Friday would indicate that he'll suit up against Atlanta this weekend, and he told the Pittsburgh media Friday afternoon that he plans to play in Week 13. To make matters even more confusing, Harris' backfield mates - Jaylen Warren & Benny Snell Jr. - have each been dealing with their own injuries.
If Harris does indeed suit up, it's a great spot for the Steelers' back, as the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL in both Rush Defense DVOA and fantasy points allowed to the RB position.
#10. Taylor Heinicke Is Good For The Commanders and Bad For Your Fantasy Team
Since entering the Washington Commanders' starting lineup in place of an injured Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke has led the Commanders to five wins in their last six games. While Heinicke has amassed an impressive win-loss record, his fantasy production has been underwhelming. The Commanders' QB has tossed just seven TDs in his six starts for the squad. He's failed to pass for more than 200 yards in three of Washington's last four outings.
Heinicke is averaging just 12.5 fantasy points per game over his six 2022 appearances...a mark which ranks 31st at the QB position this year. Ron Rivera's offense has been content to try and win games on the ground and Heinicke hasn't attempted more than 30 passes in a game since Week 8.
We can expect his volume to remain limited in a Week 13 matchup against the New York Giants, a squad that's also content to play at a grind-it-out pace. This game has all the markers of a divisional slugfest...and while Heinicke might lead the Commanders to another victory, he likely won't do the same for your fantasy team.
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