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Week 7 Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football


Unless you play in a league with a Week 17 playoff round, which...no, no, no, stop it...then Week 7 represents the midway part of the fantasy football regular season, which feels shocking. It's gone so fast!

But why has it gone so quickly? Football feels like it just barely returned and now it's already Week 7! Here's my theory: football has been better this year after last year's weird offensive implosion, and when things are better they feel more fleeting. Every exciting touchdown pass makes it feel like football has only briefly existed. (It's why baseball is somehow still happening -- I stopped caring about it and thus it will never end.)

Anyway, you came here for the busts. Below are 10 lineup busts and avoids for Week 7 of NFL action.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 7

Jameis Winston (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Fun fact: the Browns have held opposing quarterbacks to two or fewer touchdowns in all but one game this season. They've held them under 300 yards in all but two games. They've held them to under 20 fantasy points in all but one game. Cleveland quietly has a decent defense that just, uhh, happened to get carved up by Derek Carr once. Rookie defensive back Denzel Ward has been a revelation. I know Winston is coming off a pretty good game and I also know that if Winston has a strong game here I'm going to abandon ship and go jump on the "defense doesn't matter" bandwagon, but for now I'm not betting on him, even if his intended air yards and second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

C.J. Beathard (QB, San Francisco 49ers)

Beathard has put up decent numbers since becoming the starter in San Francisco, but Sunday's meeting with the Rams, who allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, coupled with Beathard ranking last in intended air yards, suggests a low ceiling for the former Iowa quarterback this week.

(By the way, I'm not putting Deshaun Watson on here because last week's poor performance was aided by a lack of rushing yardage. A healthier Watson will run more, Jacksonville showed last week that quarterbacks can run on them, and I think while he may not be a top-five quarterback this week, he should still put up solid numbers.)

Jordan Howard (RB, Chicago Bears)

In my home league, I chose Jordan Howard as my keeper this year after I built a depth-heavy team to win last year's title, so now I'm uncomfortably sitting at 4-2 with one of the lowest point totals in the league because of it. Howard has been a disaster this season, and the Patriots high scoring attack means we'll see plenty of Tarik Cohen in the passing game this week. Howard's best bet for doing anything will be the Bears getting into the red zone early and letting him carry it across the goal-line because he's bound for a small number of touches as Chicago tries to keep up with New England.

Lamar Miller (RB, Houston Texans)

Houston's had a funky red zone offense this year, which has led to Miller having just four carries for three yards inside the 10-yard line. He's seen Alfred Blue both eat into his touches and perform better than him on a per touch basis, and Jacksonville's defense has held him in check before.

Isaiah Crowell (RB, New York Jets)

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how Crowell can make things happen once he gets past the initial line of defense, but the Jets offensive line has made that a very difficult task. Minnesota isn't the defense that Crowell wants to encounter if he's trying to have another of his breakout games, so I've got him pretty low this week on my list of running backs.

Will Fuller (WR, Houston Texans)

We enter the third week of not trusting Fuller based on his hamstring issues, and this time we add the Jaguars defense to the mix. I think Keke Coutee could have a really strong game based on what Cole Beasley was able to do from the slot in Week 6, and DeAndre Hopkins is a must-start, but a banged-up Fuller screams trouble for fantasy owners. He'll get back to those boom games at some point, but I don't think it's this week.

Calvin Ridley (WR, Atlanta Falcons)

I've really liked Ridley this year and have regretted passing on him in my rookie drafts, but Ridley gets a double dose of "stay away" this weekend: a bone bruise on his ankle that will limit his effectiveness, and a matchup with a Giants defense that's allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Demaryius Thomas (WR, Denver Broncos)

Thomas found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but the Cardinals have been good against wide receivers this season thanks to the presence of Patrick Peterson. Peterson hasn't allowed a touchdown yet when targeted and is allowing a catch rate of just 55.3 percent. Per PlayerProfiler, Peterson ranks seventh in fewest fantasy points allowed per target and eighth in total fantasy points allowed per game. If he's on Thomas, don't expect much from Thomas.

Cameron Brate (TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

I started Brate in a dynasty league where injuries have ravished me -- I started the season with Delanie Walker and Jack Doyle at tight end -- and was happy with his touchdown, but that was the only time he was targeted, and was on the field just 33 percent of the time. Brate's a touchdown or bust option at this point, which is just grrrr-eat for those of us who are forced to start him.

Greg Olsen (TE, Carolina Panthers)

The Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends and while Olsen's return from a broken foot wasn't a disaster, I don't love starting him against this Philadelphia defense. (I will, though. He's solidly in my lineups wherever I have him despite a little lower floor this week because the tight end position in 2018 is my least favorite thing ever.)

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