RADIO
For most fantasy leagues, Week 16 is championship week so for those that were victorious, congratulations. For those that did not win their dynasty league’s championship, this is a great time to evaluate your own roster heading into the offseason. Determining your roster’s own strengths and weaknesses is a must for dynasty teams as the calendar turns and the offseason comes knocking. Which players do you want to hold onto, which players could see an uptick in value due to free agents, which players could see a precipitous drop in value due to a player or two leaving in free agency or retiring are just some of the questions dynasty owners need to ask themselves.
In this mailbag we will take a look into players that could see their values take hits or skyrocket depending on the upcoming NFL offseason like Derrick Henry and Davante Adams. There is also a question about the worth of the number one rookie dynasty pick (presumably Saquon Barkley) compared to a current top running back plus much more.
If you would like to be included in next week’s mailbag, please email [email protected] or tweet with #dynastyadvice. Let’s get to the questions.
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Dynasty Mailbag Questions
Checking the price in a half point PPR league. Ezekiel Elliott or the 1.01 (Saquon Barkley)?
To make this call at the present time would require a lot of guesswork to say the least. Ezekiel Elliott has been a force since coming into the league averaging over 129 all-purpose yards per game and scoring 22 touchdowns in 24 career games. He has one of the best run blocking offensive lines locked up for at least the next couple of seasons and a young quarterback that should continue to improve. Saquon Barkley is ultra-talented as I’m sure most dynasty players have seen over the past few seasons at Penn State. Barkley can do it all from running in between the tackles to returning kick-offs. He is truly a talented player and should make an instant impact in the NFL. However, should and already has are two different things. Barkley could end up in an awful situation with a poor offensive line for the first few seasons. As a dynasty owner, I would take the sure thing over the speculative nature of a talent like Barkley. Elliott would be the choice here.
What's Derrick Henry's value in a 12-team PPR league?
For the last season and a half dynasty owners have waited for Derrick Henry to be the anointed one in Tennessee. Unfortunately for those owners, DeMarco Murray has consistently been playing more than Henry throughout most of the season. Murray has only gained a total of 925 yards from scrimmage this season in both the run and pass game on 223 total touches, but Henry has 763 on just 158 total touches. He should take over as the lead runner in Tennessee if he continues to improve as a pass blocker and receiver out of the backfield. Murray currently is grading out at a 83.9 according to Pro Football Focus in terms of pass blocking on 103 tries whereas Henry is only grading out at a 63.1 on just 42 tries. The Titans clearly value Murray in this role over Henry at the current time, but if that changes next season, Henry is worth a bottom six first round rookie pick in 2018. There will certainly be another back in the Titans backfield taking some of the snaps away from Henry, but he should start to return high-end RB2 value starting in 2018.
Is Dez Bryant's value really this low? I was offered 3.01 and 3.03 for Dez Bryant. Do the deal?
No, no it’s not that low. Sure the Cowboys offense and passing game in particular looked anemic at points this season, but that certainly had something to do with the loss of Ezekiel Elliott for six games in the middle of the season. Dez will go on to record his third straight season under 1,000 yards receiving and ten touchdowns, but that should not stop dynasty owners from holding onto Bryant for more than a couple of third round rookie picks. As he heads into his 30 year old season, Bryant’s game should age rather gracefully due to his sheer physical dominance on the outside versus smaller cornerbacks. He should be able rebound some of his statistics like catch rate and even potentially his yards per reception as Dak Prescott becomes even more comfortable with Bryant in his third season. Expect Bryant’s catch rate to improve to closer to his 2013 number of 58.5% instead of the 52% or 53% of the last two seasons.
What is Duke Johnson's value in a PPR right now?
Duke Johnson has been a fun piece for dynasty rosters. He is a nearly an every week flex due to his receiving floor, catching at least three passes in 13 of 15 games so far in 2017. He clearly is the second fiddle in the running game to Isaiah Crowell, but will continue to be involved in the passing game. He’s currently ranked the number seven receiving running back in terms of Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement according to Football Outsiders, so the Browns would be wise to continue to use him in that role. Will the Browns actually follow suit? No one really knows what the Browns will do next season or going forward. His six touchdowns this season could end up being a career high, especially three in the passing game with both Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back and healthy. He should be valued as a mid to low-end second round rookie pick as Johnson’s upside is capped due to lack of touchdown upside, but offers a floor that is a useful to almost any dynasty roster.
Which receiver would you want in a half point PPR league? Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry or Allen Robinson?
This same time last season the easy answer would have been Amari Cooper as Cooper was coming off his second consecutive 1,000 yard receiving season in a row with a strong, young quarterback. In his 23 year old season, Cooper took a step backwards for sure due to injuries and inconsistent play at the quarterback position. The answer now to this question is Davante Adams. Adams is coming off his second double digit touchdown season, but his one was certainly different than his 2016 season. Adams has taken over as the number one receiver in Green Bay from Jordy Nelson, who will be 33 prior to the start of next season. If Adams is back with the Packers (it's looking like that will be the case at the time of this writing), he should be the beneficiary of even more success with a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers. Double digit touchdown and 1000 yard seasons should be plentiful in the coming years for Adams.
To be featured in a future mailbag article, email [email protected] or reach out to me on Twitter @TheRealHalupka using #dynastyadvice or #dynastytrades.
