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Kyle Lindemann's fantasy football rookie analysis for Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier. Is this NFL rookie RB a 2022 fantasy football draft sleeper?
Running Back is one position where rookies can make an almost immediate impact on an NFL team and on fantasy rosters.
Here at RotoBaller, our mission is to provide you with as much valuable insight as possible to help prepare you for the upcoming season. Every year several rookie running backs go late in fantasy drafts that help players win their leagues. 2022 will likely be no exception.
Today we highlight Falcons rookie and BYU alum Tyler Allgeier. Check out profiles on other rookie RBs like this one on James Cook.
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Introduction
One thing that we should always be looking for while prepping for fantasy drafts is identifying ambiguous backfields. This is a term dubbed by J.J. Zachariason aka "Late Round QB" on his podcast: The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast. An ambiguous backfield is one where there isn't a deeply entrenched starting running back who is currently going in the first 3 rounds of a 1QB fantasy draft. By targeting later players who have an easier path to become the starter or see meaningful snaps, likely we have a better hit rate on that player in the draft. Think about it, if you are targeting a player like Isaiah Spiller (who is a very intriguing option), likely he isn't going to overtake Austin Ekeler for touches this year no matter how well he does in training camp and the preseason, but in an ambiguous backfield a later drafted rookie running back doesn't have that immediate hurdle to overcome.
One such player who stands out is the new Atlanta Falcons rookie running back, Tyler Allgeier. Taken with the eighth pick in the 5th Round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the former BYU star has a path to make an immediate impact. His only competition on the Falcons roster currently is veterans Cordarelle Patterson and Damien Williams. Both are on the backside of their careers and Patterson is better used as a pass-catcher than an inside runner.
College Production
Allgeier was not rated as a prospect coming out of high school in Fontana, California. He had two D-1 offers but chose to decline them and instead enrolled at BYU where he became a walk-on for the Cougars. Allgeier was also a linebacker on top of being a running back. He didn't play much during his first two seasons but exploded onto the scene in 2020. After two successful seasons where he put 2,731 yards rushing and receiving with 37 total touchdowns, he declared for the NFL Draft.
| Year | School | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2018 | BYU | 4 | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| 2019 | BYU | 11 | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 0 | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 1 |
| 2020 | BYU | 11 | 150 | 1130 | 7.5 | 13 | 14 | 174 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 2021 | BYU | 13 | 276 | 1601 | 5.8 | 23 | 28 | 199 | 7.1 | 0 |
Athletic Measurables
Allgeier ran faster at the combine than expected by posting a 4.60. He is a larger running back more in the mold of a bell-cow who can run between the tackles and take on defenders while bullying his way for extra yardage, especially in the red zone. As far as advanced metrics are concerned, Allgeier's speed score ranks in the 60th percentile, burst score in the 37th percentile, and agility score in the 45th percentile. He did put up 21 reps on the bench as well.
While Allgeier may not have the game-breaking type of speed that is usually required to perform at an elite level for running backs in the NFL, some have compared him to James Conner, who only ran a 4.65 at the combine and is similar in size and stature to Allgeier. He is an adequate pass catcher out of the backfield and can contribute to the Falcons in a variety of ways.
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Last season the Atlanta Falcons finished 29th in offensive yards per game, 26th in points per game, and 31st in rushing yards. PFF also ranked Atlanta's offensive line as 27th overall in 2021. Obviously, we don't need to be rocket scientists to see that their offense was lackluster in the previous season.
They are very much an offense in transition as the longtime franchise quarterback, Matt Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. Wide Receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 season for making a $1,500 bet, which leaves Tight End Kyle Pitts and rookie Wide Receiver Drake London as the team's two primary pass catchers. Veteran Marcus Mariota was brought in to compete at the quarterback position and quarterback Desmond Ridder was drafted by the team in the third round as well.
Looking at the stats from Falcons running backs in 2022, we can see there is plenty of room for improvement.
| Player | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | Yds | TD |
| Cordarelle Patterson | 16 | 153 | 618 | 4.0 | 6 | 52 | 548 | 5 |
| Mike Davis | 17 | 138 | 503 | 3.6 | 3 | 44 | 259 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 28 | 104 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 8 | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Keith Smith | 17 | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
Matt Ryan completed 110 passes to running backs, but without him in Atlanta now that likely isn't going to repeat itself. More mobile quarterbacks like Mariota and Ridder are more prone to take off and scramble for a first down than they are to check down like Ryan did as his lack of mobility didn't allow him to run at all.
2022 Predictions
Right now Allgeier is being drafted as the RB53-60 in half to full PPR redrafts. In dynasty, he is valued at approximately the RB45 off the board and is typically going towards later in drafts as well. In dynasty rookie drafts he is going in the early third round.
The odds are against him as the Falcons are only projected at Over/Under 4.5 wins this year per the Las Vegas sportsbooks. This is bad for several reasons. It implies that the Falcons' offense likely won't be better than it was in 2021 and it leads us to believe that there won't be many positive game scripts available for Allgeier to excel in the run game between the tackles where he excels best. This data also leads us to believe that many of the red zone opportunities and goal-line carries may not be there for him as well.
This is not to say that we should be completely out on Allgeier as a player. He's overcome some long odds in his life just to get to where he is now. With his bigger build, he has the opportunity to carve out a short-yardage role somewhere, but currently, it is hard to see it happening on a Falcons team that isn't expected to do much for 2022.
Given that he is almost free at the end of redrafts and won't cost you much in a dynasty startup either, he is definitely worth a flyer due to the ambiguous backfield situation and the fact that the other players on the depth chart are older, which could open up his playing time.
Allgeier is at most a lottery ticket right now, but he is one worth considering very late in drafts due to the ambiguous running back situation that exists on the Falcons right now. If the pick hits, great. If not, you didn't invest much capital anyway and it shouldn't bother you too much. He is a player worth keeping an eye on all summer.
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