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Three Relief Pitchers Who Will Outperform Their 2015 ADP: Rankings Analysis

Reliever Hijinks

Last season was my best year of fantasy baseball in the dozen years I've played, as I managed to secure championships in all three of my leagues. This was in spite of the fact that I endured what I'll lightly term as the season from hell as far as closers are concerned.

Most years, I heed the well-worn mantra of Don't Pay for Saves and manage to cobble together an effective relief corps anyway, but last season I simply couldn't win. No matter who I acquired, it seemed like they lost their grip on the ninth immediately after joining my roster.

So maybe I shouldn't be the one issuing advice about which relievers you should be drafting in 2015. Then again, much like bullpen arms themselves, a bad year is likely more noise than signal. So let's get to it, shall we? I'll start with one of my few unqualified successes in the game of RP musical chairs last season.

 

Dellin Betances (97.8 ADP)

Those of you who have kept up with our staff rankings already know I'm all-in on Dellin Betances. The hulking 6'8", 260 reliever showed stuff even more imposing than his frame as a rookie last season, fanning an absurd 135 batters in 90 innings as the primary set up man for David Robertson.

With Robertson taking his talents to the South Side of Chicago, Betances has a path to the ninth. True, free agent import Andrew Miller is coming off a similarly excellent season and could throw a wrench into things. I'm banking on Betances to take control of the job, making his ADP a bargain in comparison to leviathans like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel, both being drafted 50 picks earlier. Even if he doesn't get the lion's share of the save opportunities, Betances offers plenty of value as a elite reliever capable of boosting your ratios and strikeout totals. If your league counts holds, even better.

 

Ken Giles (252 ADP)

The Phillies would dearly love to move on from Jonathan Papelbon, a sentiment he pretty clearly shares. Unfortunately for both parties (and yours truly, as a Phillies fan), talks with a few teams haven't panned out. It's surprising that anyone else is even interested, given Papelbon's bloated salary, easily achievable option, and generally disagreeable personality.

If Ruben Amaro is somehow able to pawn one of his many mistakes off of some other sucker, Ken Giles is the obvious successor. He only pitched half as many innings as Betances, but his numbers were comparable to his fellow rookie reliever. Papelbon's option for 2016 vests if he finishes 48 games this season. If Papelbon's unfortunate enough to suffer an injury or ineffectiveness, you can bet the brass will leap at the chance to strip him of the closer role.

 

Sergio Romo (259 ADP)

Look, I know Santiago Casilla took the Giants job and ran with it last summer. But I also know that Sergio Romo is a much better pitcher than the thoroughly mediocre Casilla, whose career K/BB sits under 2.00 and whose 3.92 career FIP is basically identical to Romo's career-worst mark last season.

I think the smart money is on Romo reclaiming the gig sooner rather than later. His 1.4 HR/9 last season was a clear aberration, and he's got a lengthy track record as one of the best bullpen arms in the game. At such a low cost, you'd be a fool to pass on him.

 




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