X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three NL Outfielders Set To Bust in 2020?

A good portion of busts each year are the result of freak injuries, but some players are particularly risky. Spotting those bust candidates and avoiding them early in drafts can be a difference-maker for fantasy teams. 

Although a delayed and shortened season has helped some players recover from injuries and boost their fantasy values, it’s also thrown a wrench in some player’s expected playing time and made certain players riskier. As a result, bust candidates this year may be somewhat untraditional.

National League outfielders appear to be generally well-priced towards the top of drafts this season, but the group isn’t immune to relatively high-profile bust candidates. The players below are relatively likely to fall well short in terms of production this year and should be avoided in drafts. 

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Garrett Hampson (2B/OF, COL)

ADP: 183

Hampson showed little in 105 games last season to warrant excitement coming into 2020 and he appears to be a likely bust candidate this year. Hampson’s two primary strengths are his speed and contact ability, but neither is strong enough to make him worthy of draft consideration anywhere near his 183 ADP.

Hampson’s 8.3% swinging-strike rate from last season was solid, but his 60.7% z-swing rate resulted in a high 21.3% called-strike rate, driving a higher-than-average 26.9% strikeout rate. As a result, Hampson’s contact ability has failed to shine through, and will likely continue to do so unless his z-swing rate improves.

Combined with his abysmal contact quality, Hampson’s lackluster strikeout rate craters the value of his speed on the basepaths. Thanks in part to a lack of power indicated by his 83.2 mph average exit velocity and 25.7% hard-hit rate, Hampson posted a weak .329 xwOBA on contact last season.

Although Hampson’s speed should allow him to consistently post a wOBA higher than his xwOBA, Hampson’s poor z-swing rate and contact quality suggest that his xwOBA is likely to sit below .300 this year, and his OBP should sit below .315. Furthermore, Hampson doesn’t appear to have a clear path to consistent playing time on the Rockies depth chart. 

Hampson’s lack of clear playing time and likely-to-be low OBP combine to suggest that he’s unlikely to steal more than 20 bases in 2020 (based on a 162-game season). Since Hampson offers little else in the way of fantasy value, that makes him a bust candidate worth avoiding in drafts.

 

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

ADP: 70

Robles posted a .745 OPS with 28 stolen bases last season, but his reliance on stolen bases make him a bust candidate this year. According to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Value research, hitters who steal at least 20 bases largely exist in a distinct tier, but most aren’t worth Top 100 picks without exceptional non-stolen base production.

According to Nick’s research, here’s how the most valuable stolen base-focused hitter compared to Robles’ performance from last year (Robles’ draft cost is his 2020 ADP):

Draft Cost R RBI BA HR SB
Most Valuable Stolen-Base Focused Fantasy Player 70.1 85 64 0.285 16 23
Robles 70 86 65 0.255 17 28

Robles effectively has to match his production from last season to be worth his 70 ADP. Leaving the nuances of Robles’s 2020 projections aside, his likely to be relatively unimpressive contributions in non-stolen base categories make him particularly susceptible to bust if he misses any games this year.

Based on his per-game stolen base rate from last year, Robles would have stolen 11 bases in a 60 game season. One 10-game stint on the injured list would decrease his stolen base total from 11 to 9 in a 60 game season, taking Robles’s per-season stolen base rate down from 18% to 15%. For context, that means that instead of stealing 29 bases per 162 games like he did last year, Robles would have stolen 24 bases per 162 games.

Take another look at the graph above and estimate where Robles’s expected draft value would be if he stole 24 bases instead of 28 in 2019. Sure, it could be as high as 70, but since Robles’ average is so poor that it seems unlikely. More likely, Robles’ draft value would fall below 114, where EDV calls for a stat line of .266-15-61-80-24. Missing more than 10 games would leave Robles worth little more than a late-round pick.

Robles isn’t terribly likely to miss time in 2020, but prior research suggests that he has a roughly 36% chance of hitting the IL this year. Given that missing time would demolish Robles’s fantasy value, that chance makes him disproportionately likely to bust in 2020.

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

ADP: 116

Conforto was diagnosed with an oblique strain on March 11th, and although he’s taken some batting practice as recently as April, he still hasn’t been declared game-ready. Setbacks during recoveries from oblique injuries are relatively common, and it can be difficult to gauge a hitter’s status without them facing live pitching.

As a result, Conforto doesn’t seem to be out of the clear in terms of suffering a setback. If Conforto does miss time to start the season because of a setback, his fantasy value should suffer significantly. Even 10 games on the injured list would cost a player 16% of total games in a 60 game season, the equivalent of losing 26 games in a 162 game season. 

Since Conforto’s risk of a setback is high compared to other injured outfielders, his risk of being a fantasy bust this year is also especially high. Conforto’s health should become more clear during Spring Training 2.0, but until then his outsized chance of missing time makes him a bust candidate.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Juan Soto4 mins ago

Not Focused On Contract Situation
Paolo Banchero8 mins ago

Shines Against Washington
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander17 mins ago

Piles Up 39 Points Friday
Jake Cronenworth23 mins ago

Padres Agree To Extension
Anthony Davis24 mins ago

Battles Through Injury For A Big Double-Double
Nolan Jones31 mins ago

Homers Twice For Albuquerque
Jonathan Toews32 mins ago

Returns To Action Saturday
Tyler Toffoli42 mins ago

Nets Two Goals Against Vancouver
Clayton Keller51 mins ago

Keeps Point Streak Going Friday
Jason Robertson1 hour ago

Sets New Stars Scoring Record
Adam Fox1 hour ago

Continues Hot Spell With A Goal
Casey Mittelstadt1 hour ago

Hands Out Two Assists
Steven Kwan3 hours ago

Plates Five In Win Over Seattle
Tee Higgins10 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner10 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi11 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk12 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins12 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak13 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander13 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías13 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer13 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon14 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras14 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks15 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown15 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans15 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell15 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins15 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter16 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez16 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin16 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen16 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz16 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas16 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley16 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn16 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets18 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald18 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock18 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas19 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Portland Trail Blazers19 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray19 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic19 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin19 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris19 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander19 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown19 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk20 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter20 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams22 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow22 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones22 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais24 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot24 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers24 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner24 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry1 day ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie1 day ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson1 day ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum1 day ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram1 day ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard4 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF