RADIO
Richard King looks at red zone risers and fallers to identify players with higher fantasy football scoring potential in Week 16, based on touches and opportunity in the red zone.
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As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a touchdown, so those touches are important to target. To identify the players to target in trades, RotoBaller's Premium Red Zone Sleepers tool can give you a sense of who is being utilized more in the all-important area of the field to provide more scoring potential. A preview of the tool and the top players in red-zone touches is shown below.
Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red-zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues. Each week, I will identify some risers and fallers based on their red-zone touches, and what that means for your team.
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Red Zone Risers
RUNNING BACKS
Todd Gurley (RB, LAR) - 36.7% Red-zone touch%
It's finally here! Gurley season! The Los Angeles Rams aren't the high-octane offense that they were in previous seasons, but Gurley has continued to be one of the lynchpins for the team. Last week Gurley grabbed three of the available eight red-zone touches, scoring two touchdowns. Even if the team struggle, Gurley has touchdown upside each and every week.
Mike Boone (RB, MIN) - 5.1% Red-zone touch%
I'm sure at this point, you are fully aware of the Boone as one of the hottest waiver wire pickups this week. With injuries to both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, Boone was able to get six of the 14 red zone touches last week, scoring two touchdowns. If you did pick him up you should feel comfortable slotting him into your lineups.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE) - 9.0% Red-zone touch%
How many red-zone touchdowns has Beckham scored this season? Let me save you the search, the answer is zero while recording 12 touches. There should be a positive regression in the touchdown column for one of the elite talents in the league- even on a struggling team.
Greg Ward (WR, PHI) - 4.2% Red-zone touch%
Ward blew up last week, due to injuries ravaging the position for Philadelphia. With Carson Wentz missing Alshon Jeffery (his primary big-body receiver) Ward could step into that role. The Eagles are pushing to be part of the postseason party, recording 19 red-zone plays last week. Ward had three of those touches, scoring a single touchdown. If you are desperate for a receiver this week, you could do worse than adding Ward to your lineup this week.
TIGHT END
George Kittle (TE, SF) - 12.1% Red-zone touch%
Kittle is one of the most important parts of the San Francisco offense. That importance is now translating into red-zone touches, with Kittle now third on the team, behind Tevin Coleman and Jeffery Wilson. Last week the team recorded 10 plays in the red-zone, with Kittle having four of those. Despite his performances this season, he has only had one touchdown this season. Expect some positive touchdown regression over the next two weeks.
Red Zone Fallers
RUNNING BACK
David Montgomery (RB, CHI) - 26.5% Red-zone touch%
Montgomery hasn't had the most effective of rookie seasons in an offense that has really taken huge steps backward this season. The rookie is part of an offense that is one of the least effective in the league in getting into the red-zone, and the team passes far more often than rushing it. Passing on 57.8% of the time this season. All of that means that Montgomery doesn't offer the same touchdown upside as other options for fantasy owners.
WIDE RECEIVER
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL) - 6.7% Red-zone touch%
For all of the effectiveness of Cooper as part of the Dallas offense, this team runs through Ezekiel Elliott. If it isn't Elliott then the team has looked towards veteran Jason Witten, making Cooper the third option on the team. With the team only passing the ball on 43.7% of the time, fantasy owners should look elsewhere for their red-zone weapon.
TIGHT END
Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) - 8.0% Red-zone touch%
Rudolph has had a recent purple patch of form in recent weeks, with the team missing Adam Thielen through injury. With the lack of opportunity capping his scoring appeal (with the Vikings passing the ball just 36.2% of the time) and a returning Thielen limiting targets elsewhere this a player best avoided by fantasy owners this week.
Red Zone Sleepers
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