X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

The Atlanta Falcons delivered the biggest blow in Week 15 to whatever remains of survivor pools with a last-second win against the 49ers as 10-point road dogs. Just more than six percent of entrants took the Niners on Run Your Pool's site-wide distribution pick. That's because San Fran was the sixth-most selected team. There was only one other big upset, the Jaguars as seven-point dogs in Oakland.

Looking ahead to Week 16, Thursday games are over but we get three Saturday games. All three figure to be good games. One of those games will have survivor implications while the other three big ones go on Sunday.

Teams I pick against the spread will be italicized, with my three best bets at the bottom of the column. When I say the stats I look at, I'm referring to yards per play, third-down conversions, and red-zone touchdown scoring. I also look at sacks and turnovers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 16

Broncos -6.5 vs. Lions

How in the world is David Blough going to muster more than 14 points in Denver against that pass rush? He had a nice game against Chicago on Thanksgiving but since then, his yards per attempt have been 5.13 and 6.05. That's really bad. Detroit also can't run the ball averaging 73 yards the last three games, 28th in the league. Drew Lock will be able to rip apart the anemic Lions secondary as Detroit has allowed 337 passing yards per game the last three, dead last in the league.

Broncos 24 - Lions 9

 

49ers -6.5 vs. Rams

The Saturday nightcap has big playoff implications for the 49ers. They need to win to stay alive in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. I usually get scared off from lines like this because Vegas is begging you to throw a 6.5-point favorite in a tease, but the Niners are too good to get tripped up. The recipe to beat the Rams is to pressure Jared Goff. The Niners have one of the best pass rushes in football. It hasn't been so good of late, but off a bad loss to Atlanta and in needing a win to stay alive for the NFC West title, San Fran should respond. The Niners offense has averaged 152 yards per game the last three weeks, fifth in the league, while the Rams have allowed 148 rushing yards in that span, 30th in the league. Running the ball will open up the passing game for Jimmy Garoppolo.

49ers 31 - Rams 17

 

Saints -3 vs. Titans

How will New Orleans fare in the chilly Nashville weather? Well, Sunday in Nashville has a high of 56 and low of 40. The Saints have only played three games in temperatures below 48 degrees since 2015. In Week 10, 2017, they crushed Buffalo 47-10. Week 10, 2018, they destroyed the Bengals 51-14 and then Week 15 of that year, beat the Panthers 12-9. This team can go on the road and be their dominant selves. I also believe the Titans' magic has run out.

Saints 28 - Titans 21

 

Seahawks -9.5 vs. Cardinals

On Run Your Pool as of Monday, Seattle is being picked at a 24 percent rate. It's easy to see why with them being near double-digit favorites. However, divisional games are usually tight because the teams are so familiar with each other. The over/under is set at 50 so expect a high-scoring game. Both teams are top 10 in rushing the last three weeks but also bottom 10 in stopping the run. Both teams are also bottom 10 in that span against the pass. When it's expected to be a high-scoring game, take the points.

Seahawks 33 - Cardinals 27

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Steelers -3 @ Jets

How can you trust a Steelers team that's averaging 17.7 points per game the last three weeks? They have a great defense but the Jets also have a very good one. These teams are so similar but the Jets have the quarterback edge with Sam Darnold. Like I said last week with the Steelers, first to 17 wins.

Jets 17 - Steelers 13

 

Colts -6.5 vs. Panthers

Both teams started off the season playing really well but the Colts have dropped six of their last seven while the Panthers have lost six in a row. Carolina has decided to go with rookie quarterback Will Grier. Indy's season ended Monday night after their blowout loss to the Saints. Both teams are bad in the stats I look at so this line shouldn't be 6.5 but rather 3.

Panthers 26 - Colts 21

 

Falcons -7 vs. Jaguars

Both teams are coming off big road upsets in the Bay Area last week. There is letdown potential here for both teams which is why I think the line should be closer to four. Atlanta has the statistical advantage but Jacksonville will control the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have allowed the second-most quarterback hits this season while Jacksonville is tied for the fifth-most sacks.

Jaguars 23 - Falcons 17

 

Chargers -6 vs. Raiders

Both teams are equally bad and I'm not sure why this line is six considering there will be tons more Raiders fan at this game than Chargers fans. However, in the last three games, the Chargers are second in yards per play while Oakland is 15th. Defensively, LA is third and Oakland is 27th. That's a major edge, but Oakland should still cover.

Chargers 24 - Raiders 20

 

Patriots -6.5 vs. Bills

The second game of the Saturday slate is an AFC East battle. The Bills narrowly lost to New England in Week 4. But Buffalo has the recipe to beat the Patriots; they can pressure Tom Brady and also have a dual-threat quarterback in Josh Allen. The Patriots have struggled to stop dual-threats in recent weeks (Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson). This is going to be a low-scoring defensive game and 6.5 seems way too many to lay.

Patriots 20 - Bills 16

 

Ravens -10 @ Browns

I don't think I've went with the Ravens against the spread all year and I'm too stubborn to change that now. Baltimore hasn't lost since Week 4 when they got destroyed by Cleveland at home. They will probably have revenge on their minds. However, if Cleveland's skill players like Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt come to play, they'll be able to move the ball on the Ravens. The Jets were able to last Thursday night.

Ravens 34 - Browns 27

 

The Rest

Bucs +3 vs. Texans - This is the first of the Saturday slate. Houston has won three of their last four, but their defense has struggled statistically. Through their last three games, their defense ranks 28th in yards per play, last in third-down conversions and last in red-zone touchdowns. Their defense has been bad and they don't get to the quarterback with only six sacks in the last three games. Jameis Winston leads the league in passing yards and in the last two weeks has thrown for 914 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Winston will continue to sling it.

Dolphins -1 vs. Bengals - What is there to say about this game between two of the worst teams in football. You're better off not having any action on this.

Redskins -2.5 vs. Giants - This game has major draft implications because both teams will be in the hunt for Chase Young with both teams already drafting a quarterback this past draft. The Giants played their Super Bowl this past Sunday sending Eli Manning off with a win. I think they're done now.

Cowboys -2.5 @ Eagles - If Dallas wins they clinch the NFC East, if Philly wins they need to beat the Giants in Week 17 to win the division. The Cowboys are so much more talented than Philly and the Eagles are hampered by injuries.

Chiefs -5 @ Bears - KC's offense has been clicking, their defense is really improving and I don't see how Chicago will be able to keep pace with them on Sunday night.

Vikings -4.5 vs. Packers - I've been waiting for this game for a couple weeks. Finally, a team that can expose the overrated 11-3 Packers. Minnesota possesses the formula to beat Green Bay; pressuring Aaron Rodgers and running the ball. I'm nervous about the running game for the Vikings with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison banged up but the Packers rank 24th throughout the season stopping the run. Kirk Cousins will finally get his first win on Monday Night Football.

 

Best Bets for Week 16

  • Broncos -6.5
  • 49ers -6.5
  • Vikings -4.5

Last week: 1-2

Season total: 21-22-2

More Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Clayton Kershaw

Will Retire at the End of the Season
Malcolm Brogdon

Landry Shamet and Malcolm Brogdon Both Staying with the Knicks?
Detroit Pistons

Charles Bediako Agrees to a Training Camp Deal with Detroit
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery, Uncertain for Training Camp
Charlotte Hornets

DaQuan Jeffries Waived by the Hornets
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Questionable For Saturday
Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest