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Five weeks left in the season and still so much football left to play. The playoff picture is taking shape and several teams have all but clinched their playoff spots. In the AFC, the Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, and Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives. In the NFC, it's just the Giants, Seahawks, and Commanders battling for the last Wild Card spot.
Week 14 features several divisional bouts and a primetime game with major playoff implications. The slate will be smaller with six teams on bye.
You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 14
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Cowboys -17 vs. Texans, Bills -9 vs. Jets, Chiefs -9 at Broncos, Eagles -7 at Giants.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Bears, Colts, Commanders, Falcons, Packers, Saints
My best bets are at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 14
Cowboys -17 vs. Texans
Houston had every chance to go up double digits in the first half against Cleveland but missed on nearly every opportunity. They ended up getting blown out, not because of their defense, but special teams and offense. The Browns scored touchdowns off a punt return, fumble recovery, and interception. The Texans' defense actually held Deshaun Watson and the Browns to 304 total yards on offense. Houston has enough issues, but to get a game like that of your defense and still get blown out shows how big of a disaster this season is for them.
Dallas has a much better defense than Cleveland's with the best pass rush in the league. They put up 54 against the Colts and another 50-point game is possible.
Cowboys 47 - Texans 14
Chiefs -9 at Broncos
How bad is Denver? Bad enough to be flexed out of hosting Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football. NBC would do whatever they could to keep the MVP frontrunner on national television, but they realized what everyone else has, the Broncos are an embarrassment. They went another week not scoring more than 17 points. Russell Wilson needs to be benched. When you have a defense as dominant as Denver's and the offense is averaging 13.8 points per game, the worst in the league, something needs to be done. The Broncos kicked three field goals in Baltimore and nearly beat them. Denver mortgaged their future and cap on Wilson, but he's a shell of himself and it's time to bring in Brett Rypien.
Chiefs 34 - Broncos 10
Raiders -6 at Rams
Seattle survived a scare against the Rams on Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champions seemed to have made that game their most important of this terrible season. It was their most competitive game since they lost to the Bucs on Nov. 6. But it came in a losing effort and now come the red-hot Raiders.
After coming out on the wrong side of close games earlier in the year, Las Vegas has been on the right side three weeks in a row. Their playoff hopes are not dead yet. They're currently 5-7 and would need to definitely get to nine wins, most probably 10 to make the playoffs. Their remaining schedule is: at Rams, vs. Patriots, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, vs. Chiefs. The Niners are without Jimmy Garoppolo and the Chiefs may be resting their starters. But they need to win this week.
By all stats, they should dominate. Derek Carr and Davante Adams should have a huge day against a pass defense allowing 301 yards per game over the last three, the third-worst in that frame. Josh Jacobs has 161 rushing yards per game in the last three.
The Raiders will also have the majority of fans (the Raiders used to play in LA and still have a huge fanbase there).
Raiders 34 - Rams 17
Bengals -6 at Browns
Cincy is getting healthy and clicking at the right time. Since their Monday night blowout loss in Cleveland a month ago, the Bengals have ripped off four in a row. In that game, Nick Chubb ran for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Burrow struggled, but they just weren't healthy in that game. The Browns also have Deshaun Watson as their quarterback and he is still so rusty. They didn't even score an offensive touchdown in Houston. Expect the Bengals to have revenge on their minds and pour it on.
Bengals 38 - Browns 20
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 14
Bills -9 vs. Jets
The Bills seem to be back on the right path after three consecutive wins, including a decisive one last Thursday night in New England. Josh Allen and the offense are gelling while the defense allowed 242 total yards of offense and only one touchdown, which came on the first drive. This line seems a little too high when you take into account the Jets' defense. They were hitting Kirk Cousins hard and shut down the Vikings in the second half except for one touchdown drive. The offense scored one touchdown on six red zone possessions, which ended up being the reason they lost.
Buffalo will have revenge on their mind after New York won their earlier matchup this year while the Jets are sitting in the last and final seventh spot of the playoffs. Both teams play really tough and with this being a divisional rivalry, expect a close one.
Bills 24 - Jets 20
Lions -2.5 vs. Vikings
That is not a typo, the 5-7 Detroit Lions are a 2.5-point favorite over the 10-2 Vikings. Minnesota is 9-0 in one-score games this season. It could be argued they are lucky and this is not sustainable, or they know how to win.
This will be a high-scoring game. In the last three games, the Vikings' defense has given up 345 passing yards, the most in the league, the third-most points allowed, 29.3, and the fourth-most yards per play, 6.5. Detroit's defense has been better but still gives up 27 points per game, the most in the league.
With this expected to be close, Minnesota has shown they can win these types of games while Detroit has not.
Vikings 30 - Lions 26
Eagles -7 at Giants
This looks too easy. Not one team has been able to slow down the Eagles this season. Washington beat them, but the Eagles still had more yards per play in that game. The Giants are limited, and if Daniel Jones can't scramble, the offense really struggles. Still, this is going to be a close one.
Eagles 24 - Giants 20
NFL Best Bets for Week 14
- Bengals -6 vs. Browns - Cincinnati is getting healthy at the perfect time.
- Cardinals -1.5 vs. Patriots - It's hard to back Kyler Murray but the Patriots have struggled with mobile quarterbacks all year.
- Chiefs -9 at Broncos - What more needs to be seen from Denver? If the Chiefs score 28 points, it's an easy cover.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 0-3
- 2022 season: 21-16-2
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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